psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 14 minutes ago, frd said: ECM EPS MAX RES Believe this is an improvement I was in 12” last night...call it all off 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 why cant we just get a big fat STJ going into a cold high like PD2003. Still the most uncomplicated storm in my life lol although it was highly dissapointing that it turned to sleet for 8 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Ji said: why cant we just get a big fat STJ going into a cold high like PD2003. Still the most uncomplicated storm in my life lol although it was highly dissapointing that it turned to sleet for 8 hours! Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I was in 12” last night...call it all off Still pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 40 minutes ago, Ji said: ive found someone actually more annoying than me 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 29 minutes ago, Ji said: why cant we just get a big fat STJ going into a cold high like PD2003. Still the most uncomplicated storm in my life lol although it was highly dissapointing that it turned to sleet for 8 hours! Even with the sleet - this was my favorite storm of all time. Heavy snow all day from that STJ firehose before the coastal even got going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Anyone else notice the trowal on the euro? Makes sense considering models showing a sheered out flat wave. Too far out to talk about details, but if this ends up being the case it would definitely cause precip to exit more slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: Even with the sleet - this was my favorite storm of all time. Heavy snow all day from that STJ firehose before the coastal even got going. the best was when it started. It was like 12 degrees lol. And it came in hot and heavy. Friend came over around 3am and we drove around for about an hour and a half. The next day was magical. And even the sleet was crazy because it was coming down really hard and then it switched back to snow. The QPF maps were awesome. I got in trouble on the message boards because i was saying stuff like 12zAVN nukes DC. Apparently saying nuking offended people back then. And we used to have threads for each model run. like its own seperate thread 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ji said: the best was when it started. It was like 12 degrees lol. And it came in hot and heavy. Friend came over around 3am and we drove around for about an hour and a half. The next day was magical. And even the sleet was crazy because it was coming down really hard and then it switched back to snow. The QPF maps were awesome. I got in trouble on the message boards because i was saying stuff like 12zAVN nukes DC. Apparently saying nuking offended people back then. And we used to have threads for each model run. like its own seperate thread I think that is when I found Eastern.. I remember a coworker calling me after the small stuff the day before that brought in the cold.. I said - "That was not it!" - he thought I busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I think that is when I found Eastern.. I remember a coworker calling me after the small stuff the day before that brought in the cold.. I said - "That was not it!" - he thought I busted. it actually snowed that saturday like 2-3 inches(would be a blizzard in 2021) but it was a warm snow. Then it got sunny. Then it cleared up and that big fat high from like 7pm to 1am dropped temps like a rock. And then it started snowing and pretty much didnt stop 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 That was my wife's first winter in VA (coming from San Antonio) and I kept telling her that no we generally don't have piles of snow that last for more than a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 29 minutes ago, Ji said: the best was when it started. It was like 12 degrees lol. And it came in hot and heavy. Friend came over around 3am and we drove around for about an hour and a half. The next day was magical. And even the sleet was crazy because it was coming down really hard and then it switched back to snow. The QPF maps were awesome. I got in trouble on the message boards because i was saying stuff like 12zAVN nukes DC. Apparently saying nuking offended people back then. And we used to have threads for each model run. like its own seperate thread Were you around with us on usenet when it was ne.weather? And #neweather on MIRC? I have some of those transcripts saved on a floppy disk (remember those?) in the archives. Little Ian used to get so excited at the models back then lol. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 15 minutes ago, Ji said: it actually snowed that saturday like 2-3 inches(would be a blizzard in 2021) but it was a warm snow. Then it got sunny. Then it cleared up and that big fat high from like 7pm to 1am dropped temps like a rock. And then it started snowing and pretty much didnt stop That was during my last semester at PSU. Actually my second stint, I took some time off after I was in a bad ski accident in 2000 and then changed majors. But I was home most weekends working shifts at TGI Fridays in Herndon to make cash. I remember driving through the snow from the front runner wave on the way down. Then went to a movie with an old friend that night and it was freezing cold just before the second wave. The next day drive back to PSU in the snow took like 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That was during my last semester at PSU. Actually my second stint, I took some time off after I was in a bad ski accident in 2000 and then changed majors. But I was home most weekends working shifts at TGI Fridays in Herndon to make cash. I remember driving through the snow from the front runner wave on the way down. Then went to a movie with an old friend that night and it was freezing cold just before the second wave. The next day drive back to PSU in the snow took like 8 hours. That was my last semester at PSU as well! Think we ended up with like 20"? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 It’s early but there are already higher heights on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Def more separation between the NS and SS sw as it gets left behind. Just no cold air any where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 That’s just the NS front runner. Gfs looks about to suppress everything of importance. Lol. I’m way more worried about everything getting suppressed then I am missing to the north next week. The only wave that will go north Imo is the weak front running NS wave. The 2 waves after that 26th and 28/29 will either be a hit or suppressed imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s just the NS front runner. Gfs looks about to suppress everything of importance. Lol. I’m way more worried about everything getting suppressed then I am missing to the north next week. The only wave that will go north Imo is the weak front running NS wave. The 2 waves after that 26th and 28/29 will either be a hit or suppressed imo. Snow on snow would be nice. Would it be safe to assume each wave effects areas a little further South as baroclinic zone shifts south . But can't get away from thinking second or third event had major surprises because of poor modeling of upstream blocking. Just speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Para is a strung out mess . Weak and suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro doesn't have that ns sw cutting across the lakes around 140 hours . Gfs is the only one I believe but haven't been able to track too much last 2 days . They all have it but they shear it out running into the block way faster then the gfs. That preserves our temps but also leaves room/energy for wave 2 to amplify. It’s a win win. A stronger NS front runner is a lose lose. Worse temps and weaker 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Chris78 said: Para is a strung out mess . Weak and suppressed. Certainly too early to get discouraged given we've run the gamut of solutions today. But why is it we cannot get a solid trend to make it to the 150 hr lead time? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 the 18z gfs is probablty the biggest disaster we have had this season smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: They all have it but they shear it out running into the block way faster then the gfs which preserves our temps but also leaves room/energy for wave 2 to amplify. It’s a win win. A stringer NS front runner is a lose lose. Worse temps and weaker 2nd wave. If my memory is correct, it’s been over doing ns vorts lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, frd said: Snow on snow would be nice. Would it be safe to assume each wave effects areas a little further South as baroclinic zone shifts south . But can't get away from thinking second or third event had major surprises because of poor modeling of upstream blocking. Just speculation. I think each wave starts further south. But the 3rd wave has some room to amplify and gain latitude on the coast. Not a lot. Depends how it interacts with the NS. But that’s the only one that imo could push snow north after it starts east of the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 we need to find a model that runs 4x a day that gives us snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: we need to find a model that runs 4x a day that gives us snow Let's call it the JIS. You can program it to dump 6 ft of snow on us every run from October to May. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 14 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Para is a strung out mess . Weak and suppressed. But it gives SC a historic snowstorm. We are all fine with getting absolutely no snow out of this whole pattern so they can get a blizzard right? Right... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ji said: we need to find a model that runs 4x a day that gives us snow This old GFS that is being retired when it was the new GFS a couple years ago did that before it got fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: But it gives SC a historic snowstorm. We are all fine with getting absolutely no snow out of this whole pattern so they can get a blizzard right? Right... GFS...good for spooking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 What is this BS!!!!! Closed upper low tracking south of us in prime climo and rain to upstate NY!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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