Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 CMC has an even more aggressive cold push in front of the storm. But it also amplifies the primary a little too much and so the transfer happens a little slower and further north...Not the improvement I wanted to see but not a bad run either. 0-2 tonight. Light snow isn't what we waited months for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I'm glad the para broke again. Didn't want to lose 24 inches tonight again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 @Ji look at the h5...I actually like this CMC run better then 12z. The h5 tracked further south and more amplified...it was closer to a BIG storm for us imo just had the primary hold on slightly too long...but given the seasonal trend I would go against an over amplified primary into the ohio valley. The rest of the run was better...better h5 track, better cold press in front. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 [mention=514]Ji[/mention] look at the h5...I actually like this CMC run better then 12z. The h5 tracked further south and more amplified...it was closer to a BIG storm for us imo just had the primary hold on slightly too long...but given the seasonal trend I would go against an over amplified primary into the ohio valley. The rest of the run was better...better h5 track, better cold press in front. Yea man...I'm not buying these 995 primary nw of us...I'm willing to sacrifice the waa snow Sunday for a much bigger chance Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: [mention=514]Ji[/mention] look at the h5...I actually like this CMC run better then 12z. The h5 tracked further south and more amplified...it was closer to a BIG storm for us imo just had the primary hold on slightly too long...but given the seasonal trend I would go against an over amplified primary into the ohio valley. The rest of the run was better...better h5 track, better cold press in front. Yea man...I'm not buying these 995 primary nw of us...I'm willing to sacrifice the waa snow Sunday for a much bigger chance Monday Check out the changes at h5. This was a better run imo if we want to get the big coastal option. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GEFS h5 looks improved too if I'm not mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 00z UKIE at 120 has 1000mb SLP in S MO... at 144 1005mb SLP in C KY... def transfer ongoing Strong CAD shows up on tonights run too from 132 to 144... 25 to 30 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 14 minutes ago, baltosquid said: GEFS h5 looks improved too if I'm not mistaken Gefs 24 hour trend 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 End of tonight's 00z UKIE... this is the last 24 hours of tonights run total snow accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z UKIE at 120 has 1000mb SLP in S MO... at 144 1005mb SLP in C KY... def transfer ongoing Strong CAD shows up on tonights run too from 132 to 144... 25 to 30 degrees Ukie looks better than the GFS or CMC. Would love if it went out to 192hrs. Probably destroys DC to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, yoda said: End of tonight's 00z UKIE... this is the last 24 hours of tonights run total snow accums That could even be a little too far south...depending on what the coastal does after. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That could even be a little too far south...depending on what the coastal does after. LOL Well this is what h5 looks like at 144... SLP is in KY at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Well this is what h5 looks like at 144 Ehh...what's it got going on over New England??? That is a bit too much... Love the h5 low placement but hard to see the coastal really amplifying much with that sitting on top of it. It would be CLOSE to something bigger but I dunno with that there. But were worrying about details too much for 144 hours. Not a bad thing to have something a little south when the other 3 globals were all a little north so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 @yoda Where is the secondary forming at 144? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: @yoda Where is the secondary forming at 144? It hasn't fully formed yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, yoda said: It hasn't fully formed yet just saw your surface map.... that is pretty textbook if it were not for that vortex over Maine I would say its bob chill face worthy...but that complicates things. Could squash the secondary development due east...we need it to gain a little latitude from where its at 144...not a lot but ideally we want it to move NE from there to off the delmarva then east. It might move due east under that vortex in NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: just saw your surface map.... that is pretty textbook if it were not for that vortex over Maine I would say its bob chill face worthy...but that complicates things. Could squash the secondary development due east...we need it to gain a little latitude from where its at 144...not a lot but ideally we want it to move NE from there to off the delmarva then east. It might move due east under that vortex in NE You are forgetting the perfectly timed NS system over the Dakotas. That's going to yank it back into the coast and create a stalemate tug of war. Probably crawls from VA to ME over the following 48hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Amped said: You are forgetting the perfectly timed NS system over the Dakotas. That's going to yank it back into the coast and create a stalemate tug of war. Probably crawls from VA to ME over the following 48hrs. I said its complicated not it wont work. I see that option...I also could see that "capture" missing and the storm slides out. Both are possible permutations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Geps trend last 4 runs... ok the south trend can stop now 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Geps trend last 4 runs... ok the south trend can stop now We know how this will end (see the 1/28 system at 144 hrs out). Like watching the same thing. Deja vu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 This one... we get to pick right? Isn’t that how it works? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We know how this will end (see the 1/28 system at 144 hrs out). Like watching the same thing. Deja vu This one is coming across at a higher latitude...the blocking is relaxing... I do think there is a limit to how far south this gets suppressed...but if you told me we get no snow from this wave...I guess gun to my head...it gets squashed is still the bigger risk vs it cuts enough to be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 00z Euro at 120 has 998mb SLP in N OK and 1035mb HP in Quebec at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, yoda said: 00z Euro at 120 has 998mb SLP in N OK and 1035mb HP in Quebec at 120 Thats souther 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 This run is on track to deliver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 00z Para drops 6 to 10 inches across the region for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1006mb SLP in SW IN at 144 FWIW... no precip in DCA through 144. CMC and UKIE and para GFS had snow falling at DCA by 132ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z Para drops 6 to 10 inches across the region for Monday Doesn't do the capture phase thing not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: 1006mb SLP in SW IN at 144 FWIW... no precip in DCA through 144. CMC and UKIE and para GFS had snow falling at DCA by 132ish Previous run had the WAA snow falling apart too.. interestingly enough its on its own in that regard it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Mod snow at DCA at 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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