Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Ji said: .75 qpf over 69 hours. Impressive rates March 1958 this is not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 00z CMC at 144 has a 1039mb HP up in N Quebec and a 1006mb SLP on the IN/KY border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Old Yeller > GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 It be cool to get 5 inches of snow and then 75 hours of light snow showers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 00z CMC at 144 has a 1039mb HP up in N Quebec and a 1006mb SLP on the IN/KY borderIs that north or south of 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You know, all the models have this strange double tap thing going on in some form or fashion Two vorts one trough Lead wave is dying as it runs into the block...second wave re-amplifies and sparks a secondary coastal. This setup has happened before but its "complicated". I know I know...we dont do...but if we keep getting pretty darn good setups, even if complicated...eventually you would think law of averages would be on our side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: .75 qpf over 69 hours. Impressive rates ask me how much I care about the GFS qpf at 132 hours...go ahead I dare ya 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 ask me how much I care about the surface temp on the GFS at 132 hours. I dare ya How much do you care about gfs surface temps at 132? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Two vorts one trough Lead wave is dying as it runs into the block...second wave re-amplifies and sparks a secondary coastal. This setup has happened before but its "complicated". I know I know...we dont do...but if we keep getting pretty darn good setups, even if complicated...eventually you would think law of averages would be on our side. So after all what we've gone thru..were going to win with a Miller b lol? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 How about no QPF through 144 lolHuh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, yoda said: How about no QPF through 144 lol Huh? I deleted it... looking at wrong frames Looks like just a tad too late for transfer as well on CMC tonight as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 If psu promise of a south trend continues. .well be in fantastic shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 CMC has an even more aggressive cold push in front of the storm. But it also amplifies the primary a little too much and so the transfer happens a little slower and further north...Not the improvement I wanted to see but not a bad run either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 My eyes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Ji said: If psu promise of a south trend continues. .well be in fantastic shape The cold push trended south...even with the further north primary the temperatures (other then right as the primary jumps over us) are colder. NW of 95 stays all snow. But we kind of get screwed on precip...the initial WAA thump goes southeast of us (colder press suppresses that)...then the redevelopment is mostly north...we are in a screwzone of lighter precip in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I know its not what Ji wants... but I'll take 4 to 6 inches on the CMC tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 CMC has an even more aggressive cold push in front of the storm. But it also amplifies the primary a little too much and so the transfer happens a little slower and further north...Not the improvement I wanted to see but not a bad run either. 0-2 tonight. Light snow isn't what we waited months for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I'm glad the para broke again. Didn't want to lose 24 inches tonight again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 @Ji look at the h5...I actually like this CMC run better then 12z. The h5 tracked further south and more amplified...it was closer to a BIG storm for us imo just had the primary hold on slightly too long...but given the seasonal trend I would go against an over amplified primary into the ohio valley. The rest of the run was better...better h5 track, better cold press in front. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 [mention=514]Ji[/mention] look at the h5...I actually like this CMC run better then 12z. The h5 tracked further south and more amplified...it was closer to a BIG storm for us imo just had the primary hold on slightly too long...but given the seasonal trend I would go against an over amplified primary into the ohio valley. The rest of the run was better...better h5 track, better cold press in front. Yea man...I'm not buying these 995 primary nw of us...I'm willing to sacrifice the waa snow Sunday for a much bigger chance Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: [mention=514]Ji[/mention] look at the h5...I actually like this CMC run better then 12z. The h5 tracked further south and more amplified...it was closer to a BIG storm for us imo just had the primary hold on slightly too long...but given the seasonal trend I would go against an over amplified primary into the ohio valley. The rest of the run was better...better h5 track, better cold press in front. Yea man...I'm not buying these 995 primary nw of us...I'm willing to sacrifice the waa snow Sunday for a much bigger chance Monday Check out the changes at h5. This was a better run imo if we want to get the big coastal option. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GEFS h5 looks improved too if I'm not mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 00z UKIE at 120 has 1000mb SLP in S MO... at 144 1005mb SLP in C KY... def transfer ongoing Strong CAD shows up on tonights run too from 132 to 144... 25 to 30 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 14 minutes ago, baltosquid said: GEFS h5 looks improved too if I'm not mistaken Gefs 24 hour trend 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 End of tonight's 00z UKIE... this is the last 24 hours of tonights run total snow accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z UKIE at 120 has 1000mb SLP in S MO... at 144 1005mb SLP in C KY... def transfer ongoing Strong CAD shows up on tonights run too from 132 to 144... 25 to 30 degrees Ukie looks better than the GFS or CMC. Would love if it went out to 192hrs. Probably destroys DC to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, yoda said: End of tonight's 00z UKIE... this is the last 24 hours of tonights run total snow accums That could even be a little too far south...depending on what the coastal does after. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That could even be a little too far south...depending on what the coastal does after. LOL Well this is what h5 looks like at 144... SLP is in KY at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Well this is what h5 looks like at 144 Ehh...what's it got going on over New England??? That is a bit too much... Love the h5 low placement but hard to see the coastal really amplifying much with that sitting on top of it. It would be CLOSE to something bigger but I dunno with that there. But were worrying about details too much for 144 hours. Not a bad thing to have something a little south when the other 3 globals were all a little north so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 @yoda Where is the secondary forming at 144? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts