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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You know, all the models have this strange double tap thing going on in some form or fashion

Two vorts one trough

Lead wave is dying as it runs into the block...second wave re-amplifies and sparks a secondary coastal.  This setup has happened before but its "complicated".  I know I know...we dont do...but if we keep getting pretty darn good setups, even if complicated...eventually you would think law of averages would be on our side.  

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Two vorts one trough
Lead wave is dying as it runs into the block...second wave re-amplifies and sparks a secondary coastal.  This setup has happened before but its "complicated".  I know I know...we dont do...but if we keep getting pretty darn good setups, even if complicated...eventually you would think law of averages would be on our side.  
So after all what we've gone thru..were going to win with a Miller b lol?
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Just now, Ji said:

If psu promise of a south trend continues. .well be in fantastic shape

The cold push trended south...even with the further north primary the temperatures (other then right as the primary jumps over us) are colder.  NW of 95 stays all snow.  But we kind of get screwed on precip...the initial WAA thump goes southeast of us (colder press suppresses that)...then the redevelopment is mostly north...we are in a screwzone of lighter precip in between.  

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CMC has an even more aggressive cold push in front of the storm.   But it also amplifies the primary a little too much and so the transfer happens a little slower and further north...Not the improvement I wanted to see but not a bad run either.  
0-2 tonight. Light snow isn't what we waited months for
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@Ji look at the h5...I actually like this CMC run better then 12z.  The h5 tracked further south and more amplified...it was closer to a BIG storm for us imo just had the primary hold on slightly too long...but given the seasonal trend I would go against an over amplified primary into the ohio valley.  The rest of the run was better...better h5 track, better cold press in front.  

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[mention=514]Ji[/mention] look at the h5...I actually like this CMC run better then 12z.  The h5 tracked further south and more amplified...it was closer to a BIG storm for us imo just had the primary hold on slightly too long...but given the seasonal trend I would go against an over amplified primary into the ohio valley.  The rest of the run was better...better h5 track, better cold press in front.  
Yea man...I'm not buying these 995 primary nw of us...I'm willing to sacrifice the waa snow Sunday for a much bigger chance Monday
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1 minute ago, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
[mention=514]Ji[/mention] look at the h5...I actually like this CMC run better then 12z.  The h5 tracked further south and more amplified...it was closer to a BIG storm for us imo just had the primary hold on slightly too long...but given the seasonal trend I would go against an over amplified primary into the ohio valley.  The rest of the run was better...better h5 track, better cold press in front.  

Yea man...I'm not buying these 995 primary nw of us...I'm willing to sacrifice the waa snow Sunday for a much bigger chance Monday

Check out the changes at h5.
DB1B334E-9A68-4176-A882-2119D4423BF6.gif.2af65287fec106d1df5e9fc4c16b6eca.gif

CE106A82-386E-4920-8866-654AF0B55316.gif.abb6fc777eebb1827ad4b199341aafdc.gif

This was a better run imo if we want to get the big coastal option. 
 

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6 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z UKIE at 120 has 1000mb SLP in S MO... at 144 1005mb SLP in C KY... def transfer ongoing 

Strong CAD shows up on tonights run too from 132 to 144... 25 to 30 degrees

Ukie looks better than the GFS or CMC.  Would love if it went out to 192hrs.   Probably destroys DC to Boston.

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Well this is what h5 looks like at 144

500hv.conus.thumb.png.76780f013b2876861a1f3260b0248259.png

Ehh...what's it got going on over New England???  That is a bit too much...  Love the h5 low placement but hard to see the coastal really amplifying much with that sitting on top of it.  It would be CLOSE to something bigger but I dunno with that there.  But were worrying about details too much for 144 hours.  Not a bad thing to have something a little south when the other 3 globals were all a little north so far.  

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