stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Damn, New England ìs going to get annihilated this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Damn, New England ìs going to get annihilated this run. Yeah, that’s chase worthy plus we do well too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I think some possible good news rolling forward is the cross polar flow I’m seeing on the mid-long range gfs. Our blocking breaks down a bit and trough drops in out west. However, I look at the timing of a lack of Greenland blocking coinciding with a -PNA as possibly a good thing. If we can indeed recycle a block, it’s just a matter of time before we get a transient +PNA. With a colder source region and (hopefully) higher heights in the NAO domain, with shorter wave lengths approaching maybe we get the SS to become more active. I’m liking finally getting cold on this side of the northern hemisphere as we approach February and March which can be dynamic and moist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It has potential. But so did Thursday. Look at this Excellent recap psu , thanks ! Grateful we have another opportunity, maybe this time things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Icon lookin plentyyyyy cold enough at 141 Snow starting at 129 per icon It trended better...a decent WAA front end snow...but the big show ends up in New England... transfer is too slow and messy and the upper levels never close off until too late... DC stays all frozen though snow to sleet to dryslot. Yea I know it shows green on TT but its well below freezing the whole storm...enough so that its probably sleet v freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Same...but ICON portends something good. Nice shift south. Kinda hard not to feel like we want this a little north still at this stage given the seasonal trend since the NAO block went up right after New Years...I can't remember a single wave Since Jan 1 that didn't trend south. And some of them were literally cutters day 10 that ended up way south of us in reality, teasing us for a day or two during the transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It trended better...a decent WAA front end snow...but the big show ends up in New England... transfer is too slow and messy and the upper levels never close off until too late... DC stays all frozen though snow to sleet to dryslot. Yea I know it shows green on TT but its well below freezing the whole storm...enough so that its probably sleet v freezing rain. Can we move to a hybrid where it's less pure Miller A and a evolution of 1958? Wonder when the modeling will correctly gauge the block and the upstream features? Will be cool to see if the impact zone shifts further South( from New England) closer to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Kinda hard not to feel like we want this a little north still at this stage given the seasonal trend since the NAO block went up right after New Years...I can't remember a single wave Since Jan 1 that didn't trend south. And some of them were literally cutters day 10 that ended up way south of us in reality, teasing us for a day or two during the transition. Gonna be kinda funny to see just how far south it gets...just how far north was this modeled just a couple days ago? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Gfs looks way different with sw...souther and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Gfs looks way different with sw...souther and stronger Souther...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 12 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: I think some possible good news rolling forward is the cross polar flow I’m seeing on the mid-long range gfs. Our blocking breaks down a bit and trough drops in out west. However, I look at the timing of a lack of Greenland blocking coinciding with a -PNA as possibly a good thing. If we can indeed recycle a block, it’s just a matter of time before we get a transient +PNA. With a colder source region and (hopefully) higher heights in the NAO domain, with shorter wave lengths approaching maybe we get the SS to become more active. I’m liking finally getting cold on this side of the northern hemisphere as we approach February and March which can be dynamic and moist. That would be one way to go...or if the -NAO rebuilds we could get another setup like the next week with systems cutting through the ridge in the east under the block...but with enough cold in the pattern that can work. Get enough of a block and the whole trough could end up spreading east and we could get waves along the boundary. There are lots of options with the -NAO -EPO look in the long range. Yes there are higher heights along the east coast but that is not a bad pattern imo and I bet would look different when it gets closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Well the s/w in NW TX is nearly closed off at 108 on h5... 114 h5 at 18z wasn't even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, frd said: Can we move to a hybrid where it's less pure Miller A and a evolution of 1958? Wonder when the modeling will correctly gauge the block and the upstream features? Will be cool to see if the impact zone shifts further South( from New England) closer to our area. The south trend has been when storms get under 200 hours and usually continues until about 100 hours...from there on in the shifts become a lot less significant and more fine tuning details. Some even do end up nudging north some the final 48 hours...but by then they were all so squashed it didnt matter to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Well the s/w in NW TX is nearly closed off at 108 on h5... 114 h5 at 18z wasn't even close Rotates into S MO at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Primary may be too strong? Pretty amazing that a sw in cali Friday can bring precip to va Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Snowing at DCA at 126 ETA: still snowing at 132... but getting mixy just south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Isobars starting to bend towards the NC coast at 132...transfer should be beginning I’d think. eta: primary holding on too long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Snowing at DCA at 126 ETA: still snowing at 132... but getting mixy just southDon't like it...still too north but its trending south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Snowing at DCA at 126 ETA: still snowing at 132... but getting mixy just south Don't like it...still too north but its trending south 18z was up by the OH/MI border at 144... 138 00z is in SE OH (SLP that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Snowing at DCA at 126 ETA: still snowing at 132... but getting mixy just southSurface temps at 7am is disaster https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2021012600&fh=132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Lol GFS moves the SLP position S by about 400 miles at 150... then moves east at 156.. okay then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Isobars starting to bend towards the NC coast at 132...transfer should be beginning I’d think. eta: primary holding on too long Not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Wtf is gfs doing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 You know, all the models have this strange double tap thing going on in some form or fashion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Lol light snow again at 159/162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 You know, all the models have this strange double tap thing going on in some form or fashionLet's tap it from nc not nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: Wtf is gfs doing lol Looks like it’s still trying to work out how our 60 hour snowfall happens. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 last 5 gfs runs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 .75 qpf over 69 hours. Impressive rates 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Surface temps at 7am is disaster https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2021012600&fh=132 ask me how much I care about the surface temp on the GFS at 132 hours. I dare ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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