aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Pavlov must have rung a bell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: March 20/21 2018 was similar. Severely blocked system that tried to cut and got forced under. WAA wave followed by secondary redevelopment from the next vort to amplify the originally dying trough. Being March 20 the first WAA didn’t work out in the cities. But as I’ve said that storm moved a few weeks earlier would be a HECS for DC. Also a Nina year with an NAO block. It's nice to look at, but there's 0 chance it happens like that. I can hope and wish tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, Amped said: Insane run of the gfs para. It's a March 58 look alike on the 500 maps. Only difference is the a initial surface low in the Midwest. After that the blocking scheme and the evolution of the troff through it are very similar. My best friend from childhood was born during that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Insane run of the gfs para. It's a March 58 look alike on the 500 maps. Only difference is the a initial surface low in the Midwest. After that the blocking scheme and the evolution of the troff through it are very similar. Great catch. I’ve studied March 58 extensively. It’s one of my favorite historic storms. 30-50” in this area. Lol. There actually was a low in the upper Midwest before March 58. It was very weak though... more upper level support then surface feature. But the initial wave on the trough did run up to the lakes with the upper low in upper Midwest. But it was a VERY similar setup with the remnants of a decaying Rex block that had retrograded and was dying in southeast Canada. The combo of that ridge and the vortex in the western Atlantic forced that upper low in the upper Midwest to dive southeast and it eventually activated and phased with the STJ wave along the southeast. But because of the block the upper low progression was very slow so the storm essentially was stuck as the upper support slowly caught up and the system went through several pulses of development. It was an incredibly similar setup to what guidance is projecting. Doesn’t mean we get THAT same outcome. That was a Max potential kind of thing where it all came together perfectly. DC would have had 40” of snow had that been in Feb btw. The boundary layer was just too warm that late. FWIW 1958 has been showing up in pattern analogs a lot the last 2 months. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's nice to look at, but there's 0 chance it happens like that. I can hope and wish tho Don't lie to us - it's definitely locked in, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looks like euro control run Don’t hold out, post that ish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Great catch. I’ve studied March 58 extensively. It’s one of my favorite historic storms. 30-50” in this area. Lol. There actually was a low in the upper Midwest before March 58. It was very weak though... more upper level support then surface feature. But the initial wave on the trough did run up to the lakes with the upper low in upper Midwest. But it was a VERY similar setup with the remnants of a decaying Rex block that had retrograded and was dying in southeast Canada. The combo of that ridge and the vortex in the western Atlantic forced that upper low in the upper Midwest to dive southeast and it eventually activated and phased with the STJ wave along the southeast. But because of the block the upper low progression was very slow so the storm essentially was stuck as the upper support slowly caught up and the system went through several pulses of development. It was an incredibly similar setup to what guidance is projecting. Doesn’t mean we get THAT same outcome. That was a Max potential kind of thing where it all came together perfectly. DC would have had 40” of snow had that been in Feb btw. The boundary layer was just too warm that late. FWIW 1958 has been showing up in pattern analogs a lot the last 2 months. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's nice to look at, but there's 0 chance it happens like that. I can hope and wish tho I think the signal for a significant event there is real. I was off by 3 days from 3 weeks lol. It’s really a redo of the setup Thursday but with a slightly more amplified wave and a slightly more relaxed flow over the NE. But yea we can’t lock in any details yet. It could end up Richmond or Boston...or maybe it’s finally our turn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 15 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Don’t hold out, post that ish I did earlier. You wouldn’t like it so much. Kinda screwed N of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Looking at the eps individual members this certainly looks like it has big dog potential. Alot of big hits. Some focus more for the western part of the subforum Some are focused more for DC east. And some are flush hits. Hopefully we can get this threat under 100 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Starting to reach for the NC coast at 144 I would think that's a pretty good latitude to come through the Ohio valley at. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Awesome . Do you have access to March 19 th by chance? Weaker lead shortwave might be better if you want a bigger event imo that way gives time for main energy to round the bend without the mid levels getting blown too far N. Just looking at how gfs vs euro handle things and what could benefit us idk. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I would forfeit 10 consecutive winters to experience 93 again. This time being able to follow models in advance of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: ^Definitely many similarities to 58' lookin at my Kocin book March is my favorite winter month actually. Some of the best of the best bombs have come in March . 58' delivered 4.00" qpf in Carroll county. Just incredible!! 1942 1993 1962 March 1956 and 1960 had impressive storms also. 1960 also had sustained cold. I don't think we give the March 2018 enough due. For late March you cant do much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: The Para is ridiculous. Lol. Canadian like with that double tap. So nice it tapped it twice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I would forfeit 10 consecutive winters to experience 93 again. This time being able to follow models in advance of it. You kinda did to experience 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, HighStakes said: March 1956 and 1960 had impressive storms also. 1960 also had sustained cold. I don't think we give the March 2018 enough due. For late March you cant do much better. 2018 was impressive. We had snowcover for almost a week in late March. That’s crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Trend last 3 gefs 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Trend last 3 gefs Dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 2018 was impressive. We had snowcover for almost a week in late March. That’s crazy. I forget which one it was, but one of those storms had the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen for a sustained period. White out and thunder for a few hours it was incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Now we all know the 00z runs will fool us over and pull the rug out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Trend last 3 GEPS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Trend last 3 gefs You really want to go there? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 93' Wind blew and ground blizzards for days . Never practiced on the baseball field the whole month of March lol. 1st game was 1st time outside in April Agree 2018 underrated 93 was my favorite storm ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Trend last 3 GEPS You still feel with better spacing this might be the one ? This potential storm has support across several models and ensembles, not that it means much, but just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Now we all know the 00z runs will fool us over and pull the rug out It'll wait until Tuesday or Wednesday to rug pull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Trend last 3 gefs You really want to go there? I’m just showing the trend across guidance is shifting south. Hopefully not too far south but this wave is starting out a lot further north so I do think there is a limit to how suppressed it gets. But we fall into the trap of trying to pull details we know aren’t possible to see at range. All we can say is the setup is there for a snowstorm along the east coast next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: @psuhoffman There's still a few snowpiles from 40 days ago . Now that's impressive imo from a mid December storm There was a lot of water content in that storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: @psuhoffman There's still a few snowpiles from 40 days ago . Now that's impressive imo from a mid December storm Funny coincidence I was thinking the same a couple days ago and then today I saw a big snowpile left in Reisterstown at the shopping center across from Franklin high School 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Not that great (93) for snow in Arlington as it turned to sleet but the wind was fierce. Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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