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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2018 was impressive. We had snowcover for almost a week in late March. That’s crazy. 

I forget which one it was, but one of those storms had the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen for a sustained period. White out and thunder for a few hours it was incredible. 

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Just now, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Trend last 3 gefs 
8732F2B2-B9B1-481F-B5B6-72823C5EC134.gif.f6cc242add28b06b09fa06814b994713.gif

You really want to go there?

I’m just showing the trend across guidance is shifting south.  Hopefully not too far south but this wave is starting out a lot further north so I do think there is a limit to how suppressed it gets. But we fall into the trap of trying to pull details we know aren’t possible to see at range. All we can say is the setup is there for a snowstorm along the east coast next weekend.  

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38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I followed it on the weather channel back then . Tornado outbreak to blizzard and all in between 

Consider ... a storm that stretched from Canada to Honduras  ... 4” of snow in the Florida panhandle, in Mid March .... 69” of snow in Mt. LeConte in Tn. ... 100 mph winds .... 960 mb pressure

05E5C6B5-7DA5-46AD-B6BB-9C4A2A665283.thumb.gif.67fd51358ee93a565d9626fa65f83ba7.gif

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23 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I forget which one it was, but one of those storms had the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen for a sustained period. White out and thunder for a few hours it was incredible. 

You’re thinking of March 7-8 2018. That one totally screwed me. One of the worst short range busts here in a long time. EVERY piece of guidance was giving me 6-10” of snow literally 12 hours before it was supposed to start. But miller b transfers are always tricky and the low developed about 50 miles east of expected and I got fringed. Only about an inch.  The big storm later in the month took the sting out of that one a little. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re thinking of March 7-8 2018. That one totally screwed me. One of the worst short range busts here in a long time. EVERY piece of guidance was giving me 6-10” of snow literally 12 hours before it was supposed to start. But miller b transfers are always tricky and the low developed about 50 miles east of expected and I got fringed. Only about an inch.  The big storm later in the month took the sting out of that one a little. 

That the one where that GL low screwed up something in the timing?

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You’re thinking of March 7-8 2018. That one totally screwed me. One of the worst short range busts here in a long time. EVERY piece of guidance was giving me 6-10” of snow literally 12 hours before it was supposed to start. But miller b transfers are always tricky and the low developed about 50 miles east of expected and I got fringed. Only about an inch.  The big storm later in the month took the sting out of that one a little. 
That march was incredibly frustrating with near misses ...kinda like this January
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35 minutes ago, frd said:

You still feel with better spacing this might be the one ? 

This potential storm has support across several models and ensembles, not that it means much, but just saying.  

It has potential. But so did Thursday. Look at this...

90D30C62-7F93-480B-B0B7-E9A266A406AA.thumb.jpeg.d81753353bcab78053a518c8d9520700.jpeg

that’s beautiful if you just get rid of that freaking crap wave that decides to stall and sit over the northeast all week (it’s still snowing up there as the Thursday wave passes to the south) and that stupid mini TPV on top. The NE wave is preventing the ridging from going up as well we pulling the 50/50 westward and the tpv is flattening the flow on top. The combo keeps the wave progressive and positively tilted and it ends to being absorbed and phasing with all 3 features into the Atlantic vortex. 
48C01FC0-6A15-4225-9730-A4E07E38E1B5.thumb.jpeg.f5b3b88ac479f500c3bb8cbf0b542c44.jpeg

The fact they all phase into a monster vortex gives us a do over though by recycling the pattern one more time before it breaks down.  But there are some subtle differences. There is slightly more space. The western ridge is further west. It’s still east of the canonical Boise ridge but that’s ok because this wave is coming in pretty far north and going negative early and so we need the ridge axis east to shove it to the coast.  Otherwise it would stall and even with the block that’s to good. The blocking is in the stages of breaking down which should allow more amplification. The wildcard is the wave coming in so far north. That makes it less likely this gets squashed south but it’s flirting dangerously with a miller b screw job if the blocking relaxes too much too early and it jumps too far north. That’s the bigger fail threat with this one imo.  So there are some things I like more about this threat. Some less. Both looked good from this range.  Remember both of the features that screwed us Thursday weren’t there from long range. So we have to see if some discreet features not yet showing start to pop up that could interfere. Two things I don’t want to see is slowing down. The blocking is breaking down so we don’t want it taking too long. The other is too much energy on the lead wave of the trough which could drive the primary too far north. 
 

 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It has potential. But so did Thursday. Look at this...

90D30C62-7F93-480B-B0B7-E9A266A406AA.thumb.jpeg.d81753353bcab78053a518c8d9520700.jpeg

that’s beautiful if you just get rid of that freaking crap wave that decides to stall and sit over the northeast all week (it’s still snowing up there as the Thursday wave passes to the south) and that stupid mini TPV on top. The NE wave is preventing the ridging from going up as well we pulling the 50/50 westward and the tpv is flattening the flow on top. The combo keeps the wave progressive and positively tilted and it ends to being absorbed and phasing with all 3 features into the Atlantic vortex. 
48C01FC0-6A15-4225-9730-A4E07E38E1B5.thumb.jpeg.f5b3b88ac479f500c3bb8cbf0b542c44.jpeg

The fact they all phase into a monster vortex gives us a do over though by recycling the pattern one more time before it breaks down.  But there are some subtle differences. There is slightly more space. The western ridge is further west. It’s still east of the canonical Boise ridge but that’s ok because this wave is coming in pretty far north and going negative early and so we need the ridge axis east to shove it to the coast.  Otherwise it would stall and even with the block that’s to good. The blocking is in the stages of breaking down which should allow more amplification. The wildcard is the wave coming in so far north. That makes it less likely this gets squashed south but it’s flirting dangerously with a miller b screw job if the blocking relaxes too much too early and it jumps too far north. That’s the bigger fail threat with this one imo.  So there are some things I like more about this threat. Some less. Both looked good from this range.  Remember both of the features that screwed us Thursday weren’t there from long range. So we have to see if some discreet features not yet showing start to pop up that could interfere. Two things I don’t want to see is slowing down. The blocking is breaking down so we don’t want it taking too long. The other is too much energy on the lead wave of the trough which could drive the primary too far north. 
 

 

Sounds complicated 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I could have used a break. It feels too soon to be jumping in bed with the next one. I feel kinda dirty and cheap like this is just the rebound storm. 

Dude I hear ya, lol It's too soon! (unless it actually produces)...I'm trying to live a better mental life after Thursday's disappointment...and now here this comes to tempt me, lol

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