snowmagnet Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 29 minutes ago, Ji said: ive never seen every model agree on a winter storm a week out. Didn’t January 2016 agree a week out? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Final update as our ~10-day window is upon us. Good luck everyone EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 17 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 From left to right 12 UT January 17 to 12 UT January 25 100th percentile: 21 33 20 24 24 27 22 19 16 24 21 21 14 14 24 20 20 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9 10 10 11 13 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6 8 9 9 9 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5 6 6 7 8 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5 5 5 6 7 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4 4 5 6 6 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3 3 4 5 5 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3 2 4 4 4 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2 1 3 3 3 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2 1 3 3 3 1st percentile: 0 0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.8 0 0.2 0 0 0 0.5 0 0.5 0.7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 33 minutes ago, Ji said: ive never seen every model agree on a winter storm a week out. Ya you have just been a while. That’s typically when they really happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, dallen7908 said: Final update as our ~10-day window is upon us. Good luck everyone EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 17 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 From left to right 12 UT January 17 to 12 UT January 25 100th percentile: 21 33 20 24 24 27 22 19 16 24 21 21 14 14 24 20 20 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9 10 10 11 13 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6 8 9 9 9 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5 6 6 7 8 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5 5 5 6 7 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4 4 5 6 6 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3 3 4 5 5 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3 2 4 4 4 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2 1 3 3 3 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2 1 3 3 3 1st percentile: 0 0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.8 0 0.2 0 0 0 0.5 0 0.5 0.7 2 When even dr no says yes...if we still fail... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: When even dr no says yes...if we still fail... Certainly not a sure thing; the EPS snow/sleet mean for College Park in the hours before December's storm was 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Fringed! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Pretty decent cold shot coming Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 22 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Certainly not a sure thing; the EPS snow/sleet mean for College Park in the hours before December's storm was 3 inches. Thanks for the reminder lol. The eps has a tendency to skew towards the mean for any given pattern. In fairness when storms actually hit we do beat those maps. When we get on a heater some years we crush those 10 day means. But it’s been a long time we’ve been underperforming patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Fringed! AKA..... Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, ovechkin said: AKA..... Miller B No kidding! I feel like we're due for one to go our way though.. The 12z Euro run reminded me a lot of what the March 2017 Miller B storm turned out to be (half screw job), but that was a few tweaks away from working out big time. Glad to be tracking again though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 No commentary on the 54 hour event on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, HighStakes said: No commentary on the 54 hour event on the GFS. Wonky. Interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Ok I’m ready for my next kick in the nuts. What y’all got for me? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok I’m ready for my next kick in the nuts. What y’all got for me? Para GFS looks pretty fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Para GFS looks pretty fun You ain't kidding. Looks similar to the 12z CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, high risk said: You ain't kidding. Looks similar to the 12z CMC. Pretty similar. Snows from hr 132 to hr 186 and still going lol. We could only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Pretty similar. Snows from hr 132 to hr 186 and still going lol. We could only hope Ye was gonna post that. You don’t see it snow for 50+ hours straight that often haha. There is a signal for a 2 part system with waa and then a slow formation of the coastal, but too far out to know for sure. That was wild run though lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Pretty similar. Snows from hr 132 to hr 186 and still going lol. We could only hope Ye was gonna post that. You don’t see it snow for 50+ hours straight that often haha. There is a signal for a 2 part system with waa and then a slow formation of the coastal, but too far out to know for sure. That was wild run though lol its still snowing at 192 wth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Para GFS = DC jackpotville!? Top 5 HECS potential. Better restock the beer fridge. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Para GFS = DC jackpotville!? Top 5 HECS potential. Better restock the beer fridge.Bullseye Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 3 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 If only we could lock that in now. At least it's under 200 hours away.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The Para is ridiculous. Lol. Canadian like with that double tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Bullseye Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Well, instantly discard then. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Bullseye Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Whoa! Looks like @WxUSAF is gonna need a bigger tent! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 That's a lot of digital snow to lose 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 23 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Bullseye . Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk "We were somewhere around Barstow ... when the drugs began to take hold." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 33 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Bullseye Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Looks like euro control run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Hey why doesn't weatherbell have the para on their model page? Is there some reason they wouldn't use it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 34 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The Para is ridiculous. Lol. Canadian like with that double tap. March 20/21 2018 was similar. Severely blocked system that tried to cut and got forced under. WAA wave followed by secondary redevelopment from the next vort to amplify the originally dying trough. Being March 20 the first WAA didn’t work out in the cities. But as I’ve said that storm moved a few weeks earlier would be a HECS for DC. Also a Nina year with an NAO block. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Insane run of the gfs para. It's a March 58 look alike on the 500 maps. Only difference is the a initial surface low in the Midwest. After that the blocking scheme and the evolution of the troff through it are very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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