high risk Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Para GFS looks pretty fun You ain't kidding. Looks similar to the 12z CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, high risk said: You ain't kidding. Looks similar to the 12z CMC. Pretty similar. Snows from hr 132 to hr 186 and still going lol. We could only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Pretty similar. Snows from hr 132 to hr 186 and still going lol. We could only hope Ye was gonna post that. You don’t see it snow for 50+ hours straight that often haha. There is a signal for a 2 part system with waa and then a slow formation of the coastal, but too far out to know for sure. That was wild run though lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Pretty similar. Snows from hr 132 to hr 186 and still going lol. We could only hope Ye was gonna post that. You don’t see it snow for 50+ hours straight that often haha. There is a signal for a 2 part system with waa and then a slow formation of the coastal, but too far out to know for sure. That was wild run though lol its still snowing at 192 wth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Para GFS = DC jackpotville!? Top 5 HECS potential. Better restock the beer fridge. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Para GFS = DC jackpotville!? Top 5 HECS potential. Better restock the beer fridge.Bullseye Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 3 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 If only we could lock that in now. At least it's under 200 hours away.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The Para is ridiculous. Lol. Canadian like with that double tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Bullseye Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Well, instantly discard then. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Bullseye Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Whoa! Looks like @WxUSAF is gonna need a bigger tent! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 That's a lot of digital snow to lose 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 23 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Bullseye . Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk "We were somewhere around Barstow ... when the drugs began to take hold." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 33 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Bullseye Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Looks like euro control run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Hey why doesn't weatherbell have the para on their model page? Is there some reason they wouldn't use it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 34 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The Para is ridiculous. Lol. Canadian like with that double tap. March 20/21 2018 was similar. Severely blocked system that tried to cut and got forced under. WAA wave followed by secondary redevelopment from the next vort to amplify the originally dying trough. Being March 20 the first WAA didn’t work out in the cities. But as I’ve said that storm moved a few weeks earlier would be a HECS for DC. Also a Nina year with an NAO block. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Insane run of the gfs para. It's a March 58 look alike on the 500 maps. Only difference is the a initial surface low in the Midwest. After that the blocking scheme and the evolution of the troff through it are very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Pavlov must have rung a bell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: March 20/21 2018 was similar. Severely blocked system that tried to cut and got forced under. WAA wave followed by secondary redevelopment from the next vort to amplify the originally dying trough. Being March 20 the first WAA didn’t work out in the cities. But as I’ve said that storm moved a few weeks earlier would be a HECS for DC. Also a Nina year with an NAO block. It's nice to look at, but there's 0 chance it happens like that. I can hope and wish tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, Amped said: Insane run of the gfs para. It's a March 58 look alike on the 500 maps. Only difference is the a initial surface low in the Midwest. After that the blocking scheme and the evolution of the troff through it are very similar. My best friend from childhood was born during that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Insane run of the gfs para. It's a March 58 look alike on the 500 maps. Only difference is the a initial surface low in the Midwest. After that the blocking scheme and the evolution of the troff through it are very similar. Great catch. I’ve studied March 58 extensively. It’s one of my favorite historic storms. 30-50” in this area. Lol. There actually was a low in the upper Midwest before March 58. It was very weak though... more upper level support then surface feature. But the initial wave on the trough did run up to the lakes with the upper low in upper Midwest. But it was a VERY similar setup with the remnants of a decaying Rex block that had retrograded and was dying in southeast Canada. The combo of that ridge and the vortex in the western Atlantic forced that upper low in the upper Midwest to dive southeast and it eventually activated and phased with the STJ wave along the southeast. But because of the block the upper low progression was very slow so the storm essentially was stuck as the upper support slowly caught up and the system went through several pulses of development. It was an incredibly similar setup to what guidance is projecting. Doesn’t mean we get THAT same outcome. That was a Max potential kind of thing where it all came together perfectly. DC would have had 40” of snow had that been in Feb btw. The boundary layer was just too warm that late. FWIW 1958 has been showing up in pattern analogs a lot the last 2 months. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's nice to look at, but there's 0 chance it happens like that. I can hope and wish tho Don't lie to us - it's definitely locked in, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looks like euro control run Don’t hold out, post that ish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Great catch. I’ve studied March 58 extensively. It’s one of my favorite historic storms. 30-50” in this area. Lol. There actually was a low in the upper Midwest before March 58. It was very weak though... more upper level support then surface feature. But the initial wave on the trough did run up to the lakes with the upper low in upper Midwest. But it was a VERY similar setup with the remnants of a decaying Rex block that had retrograded and was dying in southeast Canada. The combo of that ridge and the vortex in the western Atlantic forced that upper low in the upper Midwest to dive southeast and it eventually activated and phased with the STJ wave along the southeast. But because of the block the upper low progression was very slow so the storm essentially was stuck as the upper support slowly caught up and the system went through several pulses of development. It was an incredibly similar setup to what guidance is projecting. Doesn’t mean we get THAT same outcome. That was a Max potential kind of thing where it all came together perfectly. DC would have had 40” of snow had that been in Feb btw. The boundary layer was just too warm that late. FWIW 1958 has been showing up in pattern analogs a lot the last 2 months. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's nice to look at, but there's 0 chance it happens like that. I can hope and wish tho I think the signal for a significant event there is real. I was off by 3 days from 3 weeks lol. It’s really a redo of the setup Thursday but with a slightly more amplified wave and a slightly more relaxed flow over the NE. But yea we can’t lock in any details yet. It could end up Richmond or Boston...or maybe it’s finally our turn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 15 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Don’t hold out, post that ish I did earlier. You wouldn’t like it so much. Kinda screwed N of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Looking at the eps individual members this certainly looks like it has big dog potential. Alot of big hits. Some focus more for the western part of the subforum Some are focused more for DC east. And some are flush hits. Hopefully we can get this threat under 100 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Starting to reach for the NC coast at 144 I would think that's a pretty good latitude to come through the Ohio valley at. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Awesome . Do you have access to March 19 th by chance? Weaker lead shortwave might be better if you want a bigger event imo that way gives time for main energy to round the bend without the mid levels getting blown too far N. Just looking at how gfs vs euro handle things and what could benefit us idk. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I would forfeit 10 consecutive winters to experience 93 again. This time being able to follow models in advance of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: ^Definitely many similarities to 58' lookin at my Kocin book March is my favorite winter month actually. Some of the best of the best bombs have come in March . 58' delivered 4.00" qpf in Carroll county. Just incredible!! 1942 1993 1962 March 1956 and 1960 had impressive storms also. 1960 also had sustained cold. I don't think we give the March 2018 enough due. For late March you cant do much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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