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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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Final update as our ~10-day window is upon us.  Good luck everyone

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 17 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

From left to right 12 UT January 17 to 12 UT January 25

100th percentile: 21 33 20 24 24 27 22 19 16 24 21 21 14 14 24 20 20

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9 10 10 11 13

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6 8 9 9 9

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5 6 6 7 8

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5 5 5 6 7

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4 4 5 6 6

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3 3 4 5 5

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3 2 4 4 4

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2 1 3 3 3

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2 1 3 3 3

1st percentile: 0 0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.8 0 0.2 0 0 0 0.5 0 0.5 0.7 2

 

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Just now, dallen7908 said:

Final update as our ~10-day window is upon us.  Good luck everyone

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 17 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

From left to right 12 UT January 17 to 12 UT January 25

100th percentile: 21 33 20 24 24 27 22 19 16 24 21 21 14 14 24 20 20

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9 10 10 11 13

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6 8 9 9 9

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5 6 6 7 8

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5 5 5 6 7

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4 4 5 6 6

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3 3 4 5 5

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3 2 4 4 4

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2 1 3 3 3

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2 1 3 3 3

1st percentile: 0 0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.8 0 0.2 0 0 0 0.5 0 0.5 0.7 2

 

When even dr no says yes...if we still fail...

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22 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Certainly not a sure thing; the EPS snow/sleet mean for College Park in the hours before December's storm was 3 inches.  

Thanks for the reminder lol.  The eps has a tendency to skew towards the mean for any given pattern. In fairness when storms actually hit we do beat those maps. When we get on a heater some years we crush those 10 day means. But it’s been a long time we’ve been underperforming patterns.  

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1 minute ago, ovechkin said:

AKA..... Miller B

No kidding! I feel like we're due for one to go our way though.. The 12z Euro run reminded me a lot of what the March 2017 Miller B storm turned out to be (half screw job), but that was a few tweaks away from working out big time. Glad to be tracking again though. 

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Pretty similar. Snows from hr 132 to hr 186 and still going lol. We could only hope 

Ye  was gonna post that. You don’t see it snow for 50+ hours straight that often haha. There is a signal for a 2 part system with waa and then a slow formation of the coastal, but too far out to know for sure. That was wild run though lol

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Pretty similar. Snows from hr 132 to hr 186 and still going lol. We could only hope 

Ye  was gonna post that. You don’t see it snow for 50+ hours straight that often haha. There is a signal for a 2 part system with waa and then a slow formation of the coastal, but too far out to know for sure. That was wild run though lol

its still snowing at 192 wth!

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34 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The Para is ridiculous.  Lol.  Canadian like with that double tap.

March 20/21 2018 was similar. Severely blocked system that tried to cut and got forced under.   WAA wave followed by secondary redevelopment from the next vort to amplify the originally dying trough. Being March 20 the first WAA didn’t work out in the cities. But as I’ve said that storm moved a few weeks earlier would be a HECS for DC.  Also a Nina year with an NAO block. 

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