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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
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Just now, LP08 said:

EPS is significantly colder than 0z and further south with the primary.  Matches the OP pretty well.

Confirms my thoughts in regards to the 0z low camp and the improved look on the 6z. Way less lows track into the great lakes and even a few transfers take it off the coast of NC. Good trends, and to be expected at this range. During this time with the Thursday threat the Euro fully lost the storm IIRC. 

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Why, is it one of the ones in Michigan or Ohio?? :lol:

The primary drives through there and transfers offshore. 0z took way more lps on a visit through Michigan and western New York so that's actually not bad lol. Considering the cold air and CAD signal I guess it's advantageous for us to have it in Ohio/Indiana as PSU mentioned we wanted with the Thursday event. 

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10 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Some good hits in this mean.. still favors NW but given the seasonal trends we're in a good spot this far out

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_72hr-2267200.thumb.png.7097b64b23a0a2ca2a05da14f083fb58.png

Lp cluster 

1295712825_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-mslp_with_low_locs-2202400(1).thumb.png.f7d7b8c1eccf4de85d87298f1e58ecc7.png

Don't look at the Euro control lol

Looks pretty decent again.  Enough to keep me paying attention and out of the panic room for now.  Mean low is a in decent enough position, little more cold air to work with (hopefully).  Let's do it all again!

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3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Neither... it crushes us.

 

3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

The primary drives through there and transfers offshore. 0z took way more lps on a visit through Michigan and western New York so that's actually not bad lol. Considering the cold air and CAD signal I guess it's advantageous for us to have it in Ohio/Indiana as PSU mentioned we wanted with the Thursday event. 

Ah, OK...LOL!!!  So you meant "don't look at it" as in a good thing, hahaha!  I just assumed it looked awful but I guess if the ops Euro was not far off from being really good, then the control would have to be at least that much.

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Fringed.....Ji gets double our yards 

That’s 10-1. You know what our ratios would be with 1.3 qpf on the northern fringes of a bombing coastal and -9 850s... plus that weird fujuwara it does with the precip as the coastal takes over never actually happens. It’s a model bias.  

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7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Did the Euro ever once shows something like this for Thursday? I thought the GFS was the main model before caving to the Euro. So far, we have GFs, Euro, CMC, and UKMet all showing similar cold and storm for Sunday right?

The big ones are sniffed out early

Euro has a couple nice looks when it was way out at day 8-10 range 

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Curious does the Euro show 50s/60s super bowl weekend like the GFS?

It’s likely to warm up after that storm unless it really bombs and forms another 50/50. Then maybe we get an ice threat or at least not a huge warm surge ahead of the next wave. But that wave is likely to amplify west of us. The NAO breaks down temporarily and as it reloads (yep the NAO looks to tank again in 10-15 days) the next trough is likely to amplify in the central US.  

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