LP08 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 EPS is significantly colder than 0z and further south with the primary. Matches the OP pretty well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: EPS is significantly colder than 0z and further south with the primary. Matches the OP pretty well. Confirms my thoughts in regards to the 0z low camp and the improved look on the 6z. Way less lows track into the great lakes and even a few transfers take it off the coast of NC. Good trends, and to be expected at this range. During this time with the Thursday threat the Euro fully lost the storm IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 MSLP favors a transfer to OBX....then this panel. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Interesting how NAO is forecasted to bounce up close to neutral in timing with the Sunday/Monday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, LP08 said: MSLP favors a transfer to OBX....then this panel. Some good hits in this mean.. still favors NW but given the seasonal trends we're in a good spot this far out Lp cluster Don't look at the Euro control lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 4” on a D6 EPS snow mean. Where have I seen that before...? 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Some good hits in this mean.. still favors NW but given the seasonal trends we're in a good spot this far out Lp cluster Don't look at the Euro control lol Why, is it one of the ones in Michigan or Ohio?? ETA: Or, one of those that's way offshore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Why, is it one of the ones in Michigan or Ohio?? ETA: Or, one of those that's way offshore! Neither... it crushes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Why, is it one of the ones in Michigan or Ohio?? The primary drives through there and transfers offshore. 0z took way more lps on a visit through Michigan and western New York so that's actually not bad lol. Considering the cold air and CAD signal I guess it's advantageous for us to have it in Ohio/Indiana as PSU mentioned we wanted with the Thursday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Some good hits in this mean.. still favors NW but given the seasonal trends we're in a good spot this far out Lp cluster Don't look at the Euro control lol Looks pretty decent again. Enough to keep me paying attention and out of the panic room for now. Mean low is a in decent enough position, little more cold air to work with (hopefully). Let's do it all again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, caviman2201 said: Neither... it crushes us. No kidding. This feels awfully similar to Thursday progression. What can go wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: No kidding. This feels awfully similar to Thursday progression. What can go wrong! Narrator: yes 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Neither... it crushes us. 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: The primary drives through there and transfers offshore. 0z took way more lps on a visit through Michigan and western New York so that's actually not bad lol. Considering the cold air and CAD signal I guess it's advantageous for us to have it in Ohio/Indiana as PSU mentioned we wanted with the Thursday event. Ah, OK...LOL!!! So you meant "don't look at it" as in a good thing, hahaha! I just assumed it looked awful but I guess if the ops Euro was not far off from being really good, then the control would have to be at least that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 4” on a D6 EPS snow mean. Where have I seen that before...? You would think if we keep getting GOOD setups one has to work eventually. Right lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Narrator: yes Damn! At least say "SPOILER ALERT" before you give away the plot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: You would think if we keep getting GOOD setups one has to work eventually. Right lol Bob Chill rule of 5. Need 5 good chances to get 1! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Has anybody said “there’s a signal there” yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just once... 6 1 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 This is the mean for the whole storm. You need to use the 72 hour snow mean to capture it all because there are some timing differences and some members have the secondary stall and linger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Did the Euro ever once shows something like this for Thursday? I thought the GFS was the main model before caving to the Euro. So far, we have GFs, Euro, CMC, and UKMet all showing similar cold and storm for Sunday right? The big ones are sniffed out early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 GEPS loves that threat too. Gefs is more north (good!!!!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Fringed.....Ji gets double our yards That’s 10-1. You know what our ratios would be with 1.3 qpf on the northern fringes of a bombing coastal and -9 850s... plus that weird fujuwara it does with the precip as the coastal takes over never actually happens. It’s a model bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 @losetoa6 I got 30” from one of those 2010 storms on 1.5 qpf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just once... Throw a tent over it. @WxUSAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Curious does the Euro show 50s/60s super bowl weekend like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Did the Euro ever once shows something like this for Thursday? I thought the GFS was the main model before caving to the Euro. So far, we have GFs, Euro, CMC, and UKMet all showing similar cold and storm for Sunday right? The big ones are sniffed out early Euro has a couple nice looks when it was way out at day 8-10 range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Curious does the Euro show 50s/60s super bowl weekend like the GFS? It’s likely to warm up after that storm unless it really bombs and forms another 50/50. Then maybe we get an ice threat or at least not a huge warm surge ahead of the next wave. But that wave is likely to amplify west of us. The NAO breaks down temporarily and as it reloads (yep the NAO looks to tank again in 10-15 days) the next trough is likely to amplify in the central US. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro has a couple nice looks when it was way out at day 8-10 range I was worried for a minute there you were going to take your ball and go home on tracking this season... glad to see you're still in it. We need you scanning the horizons to keep the hope alive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: I was worried for a minute there you were going to take your ball and go home on tracking this season... glad to see you're still in it. We need you scanning the horizons to keep the hope alive. I’m getting pretty frustrated but I’ll never stop tracking. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 ive never seen every model agree on a winter storm a week out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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