Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Narrator: yes Damn! At least say "SPOILER ALERT" before you give away the plot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: You would think if we keep getting GOOD setups one has to work eventually. Right lol Bob Chill rule of 5. Need 5 good chances to get 1! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Has anybody said “there’s a signal there” yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just once... 6 1 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 This is the mean for the whole storm. You need to use the 72 hour snow mean to capture it all because there are some timing differences and some members have the secondary stall and linger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Did the Euro ever once shows something like this for Thursday? I thought the GFS was the main model before caving to the Euro. So far, we have GFs, Euro, CMC, and UKMet all showing similar cold and storm for Sunday right? The big ones are sniffed out early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 GEPS loves that threat too. Gefs is more north (good!!!!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Fringed.....Ji gets double our yards That’s 10-1. You know what our ratios would be with 1.3 qpf on the northern fringes of a bombing coastal and -9 850s... plus that weird fujuwara it does with the precip as the coastal takes over never actually happens. It’s a model bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 @losetoa6 I got 30” from one of those 2010 storms on 1.5 qpf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just once... Throw a tent over it. @WxUSAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Curious does the Euro show 50s/60s super bowl weekend like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Did the Euro ever once shows something like this for Thursday? I thought the GFS was the main model before caving to the Euro. So far, we have GFs, Euro, CMC, and UKMet all showing similar cold and storm for Sunday right? The big ones are sniffed out early Euro has a couple nice looks when it was way out at day 8-10 range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Curious does the Euro show 50s/60s super bowl weekend like the GFS? It’s likely to warm up after that storm unless it really bombs and forms another 50/50. Then maybe we get an ice threat or at least not a huge warm surge ahead of the next wave. But that wave is likely to amplify west of us. The NAO breaks down temporarily and as it reloads (yep the NAO looks to tank again in 10-15 days) the next trough is likely to amplify in the central US. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro has a couple nice looks when it was way out at day 8-10 range I was worried for a minute there you were going to take your ball and go home on tracking this season... glad to see you're still in it. We need you scanning the horizons to keep the hope alive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: I was worried for a minute there you were going to take your ball and go home on tracking this season... glad to see you're still in it. We need you scanning the horizons to keep the hope alive. I’m getting pretty frustrated but I’ll never stop tracking. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 ive never seen every model agree on a winter storm a week out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 29 minutes ago, Ji said: ive never seen every model agree on a winter storm a week out. Didn’t January 2016 agree a week out? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Final update as our ~10-day window is upon us. Good luck everyone EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 17 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 From left to right 12 UT January 17 to 12 UT January 25 100th percentile: 21 33 20 24 24 27 22 19 16 24 21 21 14 14 24 20 20 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9 10 10 11 13 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6 8 9 9 9 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5 6 6 7 8 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5 5 5 6 7 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4 4 5 6 6 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3 3 4 5 5 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3 2 4 4 4 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2 1 3 3 3 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2 1 3 3 3 1st percentile: 0 0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.8 0 0.2 0 0 0 0.5 0 0.5 0.7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 33 minutes ago, Ji said: ive never seen every model agree on a winter storm a week out. Ya you have just been a while. That’s typically when they really happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, dallen7908 said: Final update as our ~10-day window is upon us. Good luck everyone EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 17 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 From left to right 12 UT January 17 to 12 UT January 25 100th percentile: 21 33 20 24 24 27 22 19 16 24 21 21 14 14 24 20 20 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9 10 10 11 13 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6 8 9 9 9 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5 6 6 7 8 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5 5 5 6 7 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4 4 5 6 6 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3 3 4 5 5 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3 2 4 4 4 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2 1 3 3 3 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2 1 3 3 3 1st percentile: 0 0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.8 0 0.2 0 0 0 0.5 0 0.5 0.7 2 When even dr no says yes...if we still fail... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: When even dr no says yes...if we still fail... Certainly not a sure thing; the EPS snow/sleet mean for College Park in the hours before December's storm was 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Fringed! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Pretty decent cold shot coming Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 22 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Certainly not a sure thing; the EPS snow/sleet mean for College Park in the hours before December's storm was 3 inches. Thanks for the reminder lol. The eps has a tendency to skew towards the mean for any given pattern. In fairness when storms actually hit we do beat those maps. When we get on a heater some years we crush those 10 day means. But it’s been a long time we’ve been underperforming patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Fringed! AKA..... Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, ovechkin said: AKA..... Miller B No kidding! I feel like we're due for one to go our way though.. The 12z Euro run reminded me a lot of what the March 2017 Miller B storm turned out to be (half screw job), but that was a few tweaks away from working out big time. Glad to be tracking again though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 No commentary on the 54 hour event on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, HighStakes said: No commentary on the 54 hour event on the GFS. Wonky. Interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Ok I’m ready for my next kick in the nuts. What y’all got for me? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok I’m ready for my next kick in the nuts. What y’all got for me? Para GFS looks pretty fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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