Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 big storm---loooks liek some snow showers sunday and the big Dog Monday. back to 7 days 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Ha. Damn, I was on it. ANyway, looks like the Low is tucked on the coast, literally raining on our parade. But man, at least it's another fail to track. Problem is, now we WANT the blocking/confluence to be stout. Or we need faster movement of the s/w Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Ha. Damn, I was on it. ANyway, looks like the Low is tucked on the coast, literally raining on our parade. But man, at least it's another fail to track. Problem is, now we WANT the blocking/confluence to be stout. Ugh its come quite a ways in 6 hours...and thinking how things have trended recently who knows...but CMC was much more fun to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Ha. Damn, I was on it. ANyway, looks like the Low is tucked on the coast, literally raining on our parade. But man, at least it's another fail to track. Problem is, now we WANT the blocking/confluence to be stout. Ugh just get that low to shift south and transfer south of us and it looks like a slow crawling HECS that got us into this hobby in the first place 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 That would certainly not need much adjustment to be a HECS for the cities... verbatim it is one just N&W... happy to be tracking in late Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, Paleocene said: . Indeed, a parallel hmm from me because the LP serious takes almost 2 days to move to the apps Seems like that slow movement works to our advantage. Gives time for the low in the Atlantic to get the hell out of the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ha. Damn, I was on it. ANyway, looks like the Low is tucked on the coast, literally raining on our parade. But man, at least it's another fail to track. Problem is, now we WANT the blocking/confluence to be stout. Or we need faster movement of the s/w Ugh Seems like a camp of lows at the 0z EPS favored a transfer in a pretty decent spot.. 6z looked even better with a bit more confluence and a weaker lp before transfer (but of course it only goes out to 144, which also shows how far out this is lol). Will be interesting to see the look at this panel for 12z, I'd expect some similar looking lps, maybe an improved camp of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Thankfully the Euro should swoop in here momentarily to kill hope. Hope is a dangerous thing. 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro...hmmm Very close...big hit for NW of 95. But the trends both now and seasonal are the key. Ignore the gfs also. It’s added more confusion then anything else lately. All other guidance is trending south pretty dramatically over the last 24-48 hours and that fits the seasonal trend. I expect further south adjustment the next 2-3 days. There is a limit to how far south though because this is coming across pretty far north. I’m not as worried this gets squashed south of us as with the Thursday storm. 16 minutes ago, H2O said: Based on how tonights storm has trended better I will say that starting tomorrow the Thursday storm will suddenly get better. Trends since Dec are south/weaker day 3-7 and a slight north amp bump the final 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Psuhoff, You know what’s funny. The storm that forms on the euro is actually from another pac piece that breaks off and rounds the base of the trough. Normally that lead shortwave would just take advantage of the cold, but no, it gets delayed and that other shortwave turns the corner and forms a major low, but by this time a loT of the cold is eroded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Still, it’s in a good spot knowing how we’ve trended this year with confluence trending better and better recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Still, it’s in a good spot knowing how we’ve trended this year with confluence trending better and better recently the FEb 4 storm look like nate Sudfeld when he came in for Jalen hurts though 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Very close...big hit for NW of 95. But the trends both now and seasonal are the key. Ignore the gfs also. It’s added more confusion then anything else lately. All other guidance is trending south pretty dramatically over the last 24-48 hours and that fits the seasonal trend. I expect further south adjustment the next 2-3 days. There is a limit to how far south though because this is coming across pretty far north. I’m not as worried this gets squashed south of us as with the Thursday storm. Trends since Dec are south/weaker day 3-7 and a slight north amp bump the final 48. I was going to say this, as well. The recent trend now that the blocking is established is a move south. I was thinking the same even over the last 24 hours or so as this window has popped up. You could see how if this followed the recent trends then it could ultimately give us something to really track...even if the ultimate solution isn't perfection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Ji said: the FEb 4 storm look like nate Sudfeld when he came in for Jalen hurts though Lol, That’s the pattern changer though no worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 One thing that looks different for the Day 7 storm, and i know it doesn't mean a whole lot at this stage, but there is definitely sufficient cold to start. This is with precip on the doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Psuhoff, You know what’s funny. The storm that forms on the euro is actually from another pac piece that breaks off and rounds the base of the trough. Normally that lead shortwave would just take advantage of the cold, but no, it gets delayed and that other shortwave turns the corner and forms a major low, but by this time a loT of the cold is eroded. That’s too much specificity for that range. The weird double barrel h5 pinwheel aside the track of the h5 and surface low adjusted south again. That’s the takeaway at that range. I’m not even worrying about that weird h5 Fujiwara it pulled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s too much specificity for that range. The weird double barrel h5 pinwheel aside the track of the h5 and surface low adjusted south again. That’s the takeaway at that range. I’m not even worrying about that weird h5 Fujiwara it pulled. True, it does show up on the guidance though, that lead wave can’t do it by itself with the confluence that strong and no ridging behind it. You kind of see hints of it on the cmc as well. Was just pointing it out as another way we could get screwed lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 EPS is significantly colder than 0z and further south with the primary. Matches the OP pretty well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: EPS is significantly colder than 0z and further south with the primary. Matches the OP pretty well. Confirms my thoughts in regards to the 0z low camp and the improved look on the 6z. Way less lows track into the great lakes and even a few transfers take it off the coast of NC. Good trends, and to be expected at this range. During this time with the Thursday threat the Euro fully lost the storm IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 MSLP favors a transfer to OBX....then this panel. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Interesting how NAO is forecasted to bounce up close to neutral in timing with the Sunday/Monday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, LP08 said: MSLP favors a transfer to OBX....then this panel. Some good hits in this mean.. still favors NW but given the seasonal trends we're in a good spot this far out Lp cluster Don't look at the Euro control lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 4” on a D6 EPS snow mean. Where have I seen that before...? 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Some good hits in this mean.. still favors NW but given the seasonal trends we're in a good spot this far out Lp cluster Don't look at the Euro control lol Why, is it one of the ones in Michigan or Ohio?? ETA: Or, one of those that's way offshore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Why, is it one of the ones in Michigan or Ohio?? ETA: Or, one of those that's way offshore! Neither... it crushes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Why, is it one of the ones in Michigan or Ohio?? The primary drives through there and transfers offshore. 0z took way more lps on a visit through Michigan and western New York so that's actually not bad lol. Considering the cold air and CAD signal I guess it's advantageous for us to have it in Ohio/Indiana as PSU mentioned we wanted with the Thursday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Some good hits in this mean.. still favors NW but given the seasonal trends we're in a good spot this far out Lp cluster Don't look at the Euro control lol Looks pretty decent again. Enough to keep me paying attention and out of the panic room for now. Mean low is a in decent enough position, little more cold air to work with (hopefully). Let's do it all again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, caviman2201 said: Neither... it crushes us. No kidding. This feels awfully similar to Thursday progression. What can go wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: No kidding. This feels awfully similar to Thursday progression. What can go wrong! Narrator: yes 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Neither... it crushes us. 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: The primary drives through there and transfers offshore. 0z took way more lps on a visit through Michigan and western New York so that's actually not bad lol. Considering the cold air and CAD signal I guess it's advantageous for us to have it in Ohio/Indiana as PSU mentioned we wanted with the Thursday event. Ah, OK...LOL!!! So you meant "don't look at it" as in a good thing, hahaha! I just assumed it looked awful but I guess if the ops Euro was not far off from being really good, then the control would have to be at least that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 4” on a D6 EPS snow mean. Where have I seen that before...? You would think if we keep getting GOOD setups one has to work eventually. Right lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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