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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
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This winter is like an endless bio pic about Jennifer Anniston and Brad Pitt’s love life. Endless delays to inevitable heartbreak. Unreal how many big threats have fallen apart this winter so far. 
 

Sunday’s setup is much nicer than Thursday’s - until Thursday comes and we’ll be talking about Sunday’s threat slowly disappearing and a threat for next Wednesday emerging - LOL. IM TIRED OF TRACKING YALL. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Ha.  Damn, I was on it. 

ANyway, looks like the Low is tucked on the coast, literally raining on our parade.   But man, at least it's another fail to track. 

Problem is, now we WANT the blocking/confluence to be stout.   Ugh

its come quite a ways in 6 hours...and thinking how things have trended recently who knows...but CMC was much more fun to look at

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Ha.  Damn, I was on it. 

ANyway, looks like the Low is tucked on the coast, literally raining on our parade.   But man, at least it's another fail to track. 

Problem is, now we WANT the blocking/confluence to be stout.   Ugh

just get that low to shift south and transfer south of us and it looks like a slow crawling HECS that got us into this hobby in the first place

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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ha.  Damn, I was on it. 

ANyway, looks like the Low is tucked on the coast, literally raining on our parade.   But man, at least it's another fail to track. 

Problem is, now we WANT the blocking/confluence to be stout.  Or we need faster movement of the s/w Ugh

Seems like a camp of lows at the 0z EPS favored a transfer in a pretty decent spot.. 6z looked even better with a bit more confluence and a weaker lp before transfer (but of course it only goes out to 144, which also shows how far out this is lol).

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-mslp_with_low_locs-2180800.thumb.png.892127b33794ddc68b69efc00e3a89cc.png

Will be interesting to see the look at this panel for 12z, I'd expect some similar looking lps, maybe an improved camp of them. 

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Thankfully the Euro should swoop in here momentarily to kill hope.  Hope is a dangerous thing.

 

17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro...hmmm :huh:

Very close...big hit for NW of 95. But the trends both now and seasonal are the key.  Ignore the gfs also. It’s added more confusion then anything else lately. All other guidance is trending south pretty dramatically over the last 24-48 hours and that fits the seasonal trend. I expect further south adjustment the next 2-3 days. There is a limit to how far south though because this is coming across pretty far north.  I’m not as worried this gets squashed south of us as with the Thursday storm.  

16 minutes ago, H2O said:

Based on how tonights storm has trended better I will say that starting tomorrow the Thursday storm will suddenly get better.

Trends since Dec are south/weaker day 3-7 and a slight north amp bump the final 48.  

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Psuhoff,

You know what’s funny. The storm that forms on the euro is actually from another pac piece that breaks off and rounds the base of the trough. Normally that lead shortwave would just take advantage of the cold, but no, it gets delayed and that other shortwave turns the corner and forms a major low, but by this time a loT of the cold is eroded. 

C48B1A44-2F0E-4AC0-90CD-6EDD43957F82.jpeg

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Very close...big hit for NW of 95. But the trends both now and seasonal are the key.  Ignore the gfs also. It’s added more confusion then anything else lately. All other guidance is trending south pretty dramatically over the last 24-48 hours and that fits the seasonal trend. I expect further south adjustment the next 2-3 days. There is a limit to how far south though because this is coming across pretty far north.  I’m not as worried this gets squashed south of us as with the Thursday storm.  

Trends since Dec are south/weaker day 3-7 and a slight north amp bump the final 48.  

I was going to say this, as well. The recent trend now that the blocking is established is a move south. I was thinking the same even over the last 24 hours or so as this window has popped up. You could see how if this followed the recent trends then it could ultimately give us something to really track...even if the ultimate solution isn't perfection.

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3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Psuhoff,

You know what’s funny. The storm that forms on the euro is actually from another pac piece that breaks off and rounds the base of the trough. Normally that lead shortwave would just take advantage of the cold, but no, it gets delayed and that other shortwave turns the corner and forms a major low, but by this time a loT of the cold is eroded. 

C48B1A44-2F0E-4AC0-90CD-6EDD43957F82.jpeg

That’s too much specificity for that range. The weird double barrel h5 pinwheel aside the track of the h5 and surface low adjusted south again. That’s the takeaway at that range. I’m not even worrying about that weird h5 Fujiwara it pulled. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s too much specificity for that range. The weird double barrel h5 pinwheel aside the track of the h5 and surface low adjusted south again. That’s the takeaway at that range. I’m not even worrying about that weird h5 Fujiwara it pulled. 

True, it does show up on the guidance though, that lead wave can’t do it by itself with the confluence that strong and no ridging behind it. You kind of see hints of it on the cmc as well. Was just pointing it out as another way we could get screwed lol

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