frd Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Cold leading in, then cold behind is the general idea on the means. so temps are an obvious problem esp for the lowlands, and the coastal transfer has the typical look of occurring too far north/too late for our area. Maybe the WDI will overwhelm the complexity and high probably of failure lol. I would think if I were a betting man that the event on Monday has better thermal odds than this week. At least maybe start as snow and even end as snow , but that hardly ever works out. Are you forming any ideas about mid to later Feb. ? I feel there is some growing evidence that after the cold period ( you posted about earlier ) a cutter visits and then based on evolutions in the Pac we may get another opportunity to get fooled near the 17 th to 28 th of Feb. Thoughts ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, frd said: I would think if I were a betting man that the event on Monday has better thermal odds than this week. At least maybe start as snow and even end as snow , but that hardly ever works out. Are you forming any ideas about mid to later Feb. ? I feel there is some growing evidence that after the cold period ( you posted about earlier ) a cutter visits and then based on evolutions in the Pac we may get another opportunity to get fooled near the 17 th to 28 th of Feb. Thoughts ? I haven't thought too much about it, but the LR looks I am seeing don't imply a 'close the shades' situation. Historically it finds ways to snow in February, but we know we are in somewhat different times. In general I like seeing a mechanism to inject polar air into the midlatitudes, but we need the Pac to cooperate enough to allow it to propagate east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 LWX on the start of next week: High pressure will dominate Saturday with a little moderation in temps. However, by Sunday, another system is pushing northeastward towards us, with warm advection precip breaking out in our region by day`s end. Cold air looks marginal by this point, so while a mix may start, this again looks like a system which will transition to more liquid than frozen. The low track towards the lower Great Lakes certainly will not help keep the cold air around, though some damming could result in more wintry mix in the favored spots northwest of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Penultimate update as our window is nigh; about half of the total for the last run are for this weekend's possible storm, which I had kind of forgot about until yesterday morning when I checked my "trusty" weather app and saw that my snow chances (percent) for next weekend were higher than either today/tomorrow or Thursday. EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 16 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9 10 10 11 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6 8 9 9 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5 6 6 7 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5 5 5 6 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4 4 5 6 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3 3 4 5 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3 2 4 4 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2 1 3 3 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2 1 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: Looks like some really good MJO news. We’ll have opportunities in February. We may start playing with a -epo or +pna by first week or so If the Mjo gets into 8 with a -AO and we still fail lol. We’ve been fighting a somewhat hostile Pac base state. Although I think some are using that as a comfort blanket honestly because the pac forcing has been mostly blah and muted. Definitely not good but not awful. And we’ve overcome a similar pac with a -AO/NAO before. But if we get the pac into a favorable forcing state in Feb and its still not cold enough the excuses start to run out. BTW when I say forcing I don’t mean the longwave pattern necessarily. I have my suspicious the typical response is being altered somewhat. But that altered response if somewhat permanent is irrelevant. If the forcing takes on a typical nino phase 8 look and we still see a hostile longwave pattern....well at least we can eliminate the “we need the pac to cooperate” posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Not impossible, but all kinds of potential issues with this one. We need something simple lol. Simple isn’t an option. Simple would be a wave running under us with a nice WAA snow shield. That cannot happen because there isn’t enough cold. Look at the thermals I posted last night from the icon as the wave gets into the plains. It has no snow shield to it’s NE again because there is no tight thermal gradient to focus along. You can go 250 miles and only get a 5-10 degree change because it’s 28 degrees all the way up into Canada where it should be 10 degrees. Because of this we will likely continue to see storms where there is little to no WAA snow shield to the northeast of them. We need some kind of dynamic system that amplifies in just the right spot and given the blocking that’s going to involve some form of west track transfer hybrid system. And yes that’s the complicated way and we prefer simple but without the overrunning option simple is gone. I guess you could consider tonight simple except the snow shield is sooooo narrow because of the factors above its not really simple and it’s pretty limited in potential and scope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You can go 250 miles and only get a 5-10 degree change because it’s 28 degrees all the way up into Canada where it should be 10 degrees. So what does the long range show in terms of getting more cold into Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If the Mjo gets into 8 with a -AO and we still fail lol. We’ve been fighting a somewhat hostile Pac base state. Although I think some are using they ask a comfort blanket honestly because the pac forcing has been mostly blah and muted. Definitely not good but not awful. And we’ve overcome a similar pac with a -AO/NAO before. But if we get the pac into a favorable forcing state in Feb and its still not cold enough the excuses start to run out. BTW when I say forcing I don’t mean the longwave pattern necessarily. I have my suspicious the typical response is being altered somewhat. But that altered response if somewhat permanent is irrelevant. If the forcing takes on a typical nino phase 8 look and we still see a hostile longwave pattern....well at least we can eliminate the “we need the pac to cooperate” posts. Yea i just want to shake it up and looks like we’ll get that, probably after a that cutter that’s being progged day 10-12. This current pattern is just not working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 icon blues us sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: If the Mjo gets into 8 with a -AO and we still fail lol. We’ve been fighting a somewhat hostile Pac base state. Although I think some are using that as a comfort blanket honestly because the pac forcing has been mostly blah and muted. Definitely not good but not awful. And we’ve overcome a similar pac with a -AO/NAO before. But if we get the pac into a favorable forcing state in Feb and its still not cold enough the excuses start to run out. BTW when I say forcing I don’t mean the longwave pattern necessarily. I have my suspicious the typical response is being altered somewhat. But that altered response if somewhat permanent is irrelevant. If the forcing takes on a typical nino phase 8 look and we still see a hostile longwave pattern....well at least we can eliminate the “we need the pac to cooperate” posts. How much of this winter has just been bad luck though? DC was super close to a good event in December and then another one this Thursday. A few very minor adjustments and we’re talking about nearing climo by the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 12z GFS not too shabby for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, jaydreb said: How much of this winter has just been bad luck though? DC was super close to a good event in December and then another one this Thursday. A few very minor adjustments and we’re talking about nearing climo by the end of January. There really isn’t an event Thursday. But I agree. Plenty of bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 12z GFS not too shabby for early next week. 12z Para agrees, pretty decent hit for many DC and NW. Even though the GFS camp seems to not want to transfer to the coast until way late, it still has some decent front end snow with that retreating coldish airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 figures--no we cant get a a south shift with the low to induce a transfer to the mid atlantic coast. Of course our 50/50 low has to move out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 CMC is way south with sundays storm. Looks like a hit incoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There really isn’t an event Thursday. But I agree. Plenty of bad luck. Interesting how Thursday has become a nothing burger for EVERYONE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Quasievil said: Interesting how Thursday has become a nothing burger for EVERYONE. better than me seeing a huge snow just to our south like 2018 - I thought we may go that way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Agree but you can't have a LOW in northern Virginia and expect snow around here. At least it's not over the UP of Michigan this run. looks like a solid hit to me on CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 12z cmc is much colder than gfs for 2nd 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Agree but you can't have a LOW in northern Virginia and expect snow around here. At least it's not over the UP of Michigan this run. not sure what you are talking about---this is a much better setup because the more south the primary is...the more south the transfer happens and if it gets stuck--it could give us additional snow on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Quasievil said: I'm not seeing that at all. That's 0z. 12z is a very nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 thats because its the old run...12z is what you want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Can someone put up something from the correct runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 @Ji what are you doing here... Quote figures--no we cant get a a south shift with the low to induce a transfer to the mid atlantic coast. Of course our 50/50 low has to move out and Quote not sure what you are talking about---this is a much better setup because the more south the primary is...the more south the transfer happens and if it gets stuck--it could give us additional snow on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 CMC is snow crazed. second hit from the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Crazy good CMC run. Crushes us. Basically snows for 42 hrs from hrs 144-186. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Tropical wasn't updating for me. Sorry everyone. I deleted my stupid-ness. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: not sure what you are talking about---this is a much better setup because the more south the primary is...the more south the transfer happens and if it gets stuck--it could give us additional snow on Monday Old a&s map. My apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: @Ji what are you doing here... and i was referring to GFS before the CMC did exactly what i was hoping the GFS would do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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