Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: So this time around...it wasn't the thermally challenged base state that did it, but just another bit of random chaos unable to be seen at a longer range? Oh the roll of the atmospheric dice...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ajb said: Is it still the case that the ensembles will be based on the old physics? Yes, the GEFS will not be updated when GFSv16 is implemented. The good news is that the GFS and GEFS will be merged into a single system in 2024. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Mentally I've already moved on from Thursday. Hoping to maximize tomorrow and then can we finally get a decent region wide snow on Sunday/Monday. At some point something has to break our way right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 00z icon is gonna be a nice hit day 7 . Don’t have H5 yet but looking at temps and precip looks fine 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, high risk said: Yes, the GEFS will not be updated when GFSv16 is implemented. The good news is that the GFS and GEFS will be merged into a single system in 2024. Thanks for info, but can you elaborate on that? Single system as in one model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Tonight will be some nice hits I think . The trend past 24 has been great. Goodnight!! Yea the key is the remnants of Thursday’s storm and the tpv phasing into the 50/50. There’s no where for this ULl to go. It’s a classic front end, drizzle setup imo. As long as we don’t see some funky changes on how the western energy comes east id bet we see some good runs tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Thanks for info, but can you elaborate on that? Single system as in one model? A single global ensemble system. In other words, we right now have a deterministic GFS that is run at a different resolution than its ensembles and can have a very different configuration. In ~2024, they'll be updated together. There will still effectively be a "GFS", but it will be control member of the ensemble. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: 00z icon is gonna be a nice hit day 7 . Don’t have H5 yet but looking at temps and precip looks fine Only 7 days away! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So this time around...it wasn't the thermally challenged base state that did it, but just another bit of random chaos unable to be seen at a longer range? Oh the roll of the atmospheric dice...lol Thursday was our best setup of the winter since the Dec 15 storm. More then just "not enough cold" goes into each specific event. There are lots of factors all playing a part. We could debate over which is the fatal flaw. My comments on the lack of cold are more emblematic of the entire winter fail so far. We have had multiple threads and overall what the common theme muting our chances each time is the lack of cold. And some have pointed out how dry it is...true, but I am convince, and I am not alone I know HM agrees, that the lack of a nice thermal gradient due the lack of cold is part of the reason storms aren't amplifying this year. But yes there are some very discreet unlucky timing issues that contributed to the fail Thursday. If you just glance at the look without looking at the details its a really nice setup. But there are a few warts that prevent it from being a DC snowstorm. That December storm btw was a REALLY good setup. I know the blocking was north of ideal but there was a block north of AK and a 50/50 and a north greenland block and the result was excellent suppressed flow ahead of a really amplified wave coming across. That DC had a total fail was really really amazing imo. I am not saying that was necessarily a lock for a MECS or HECS...but to get no snow from that was really impressive in a horrifying kind of way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 16 minutes ago, high risk said: Yes, the GEFS will not be updated when GFSv16 is implemented. The good news is that the GFS and GEFS will be merged into a single system in 2024. Do you know why they aren't updating the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 18 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: 00z icon is gonna be a nice hit day 7 . Don’t have H5 yet but looking at temps and precip looks fine That is THE ONE lol. BTW I do remember the old 3rd wave rule HM was talking about. I had totally forgot about that from back before the GFS even existed in the old AVN/MRF days. I had considered the Thursday storm the "3rd wave" though...but I was counting that washed out POS that barely got some showers to Atlanta the other day. You could make a really strong argument that ushered in the new regime and that this storm tomorrow is wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: That is THE ONE lol. BTW I do remember the old 3rd wave rule HM was talking about. I had totally forgot about that from back before the GFS even existed in the old AVN/MRF days. ICON didn't look all that great to me? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Tonight will be some nice hits I think . The trend past 24 has been great. Goodnight!! I love your optimism I really do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Do you know why they aren't updating the GEFS? When an upgrade for any model is being prepared, the newer version has to be run in retrospective mode (to generate stats on performance for past years and to recalibrate historical guidance) and then in parallel mode. NCEP simply doesn't have the computer resources to run retrospectives and then a real-time parallel for both the GFS and GEFS at the same time. Ultimately, having the GFS and GEFS not be the exact same model is not ideal at all. Combining them into a single system will eliminate that flaw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 the GFS is now the most south model. What an embarrasing performance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: ICON didn't look all that great to me? it was "ok". It got some WAA snows over our area. I guess the totals are measly but honestly I don't bother to look at that at those ranges. But again...the wave is falling apart as it tries to press east under the blocking...from 992 in KS to a 1009 shearing out mess near Detroit. It tried to secondary and was close to something nicer though. I was mostly kidding about "the one" stuff. I posted a couple times earlier on that threat...the setup had potential but it also shows some of the same limitations we have been suffering from all year. Look as the storm is crossing the plains...notice AGAIN the lack of a significant snow shield on the north side of the storm like we would expect from a decently amplified mid winter mid latitude system. This thermal profile is disgusting! There is no strong gradient...no thermal boundary to focus baroclinicity and amplify the surface system. And the system again looks more like what we expect from a late March/April storm and it starts to shear out as it heads east absent a nice boundary for it to focus along and amplify. What we would need for this to work is to get the upper system to crash in and phase with a secondary along the coast kind of like the euro op did but a little further south. That is not off the table...there are hints at that progression in the guidance...but again its a situation where we are left needing the complicated intricate 10,000 steps all have to go right solution to make this work because the simple way to get snow...ride a system along the thermal boundary and get some nice WAA up over a cold air mass is removed from the equation. Remember Bob used to say we do simple well...we don't do complicated. Well everything has to be complicated when you remove true cold from the equation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, high risk said: When an upgrade for any model is being prepared, the newer version has to be run in retrospective mode (to generate stats on performance for past years and to recalibrate historical guidance) and then in parallel mode. NCEP simply doesn't have the computer resources to run retrospectives and then a real-time parallel for both the GFS and GEFS at the same time. Ultimately, having the GFS and GEFS not be the exact same model is not ideal at all. Combining them into a single system will eliminate that flaw. I have always wondered how current models would have handled some of our past storms that busted pretty close to game time. Like 1996 when we still expected most of the snow to stay south until about 24 hours out...or 2000 of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The ridge retrograding from GA to TX between 60 and 78 is brutal Usually it's impossible for us to get rid of SE ridges. I don't know what to believe anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 D7 tracks from Iowa to north of Detroit. Those tracks always work for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Amped said: The ridge retrograding from GA to TX between 60 and 78 is brutal Usually it's impossible for us to get rid of SE ridges. I don't know what to believe anymore. So many little things went the wrong way...but what sticks out there as by far the biggest issue is again what happened in the Atlantic. The lack of any space between the waves as Thursday's storm reaches the east coast because the previous one lingers there. There is no room to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: D7 tracks from Iowa to north of Detroit. Those tracks always work for us! It will if the GFS adjusts the track the same way its been adjusting everything else from that range all winter long. We probably want to see the storm cutting to hudson bay right now frankly. Just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 It will if the GFS adjusts the track the same way its been adjusting everything else from that range all winter long. We probably want to see the storm cutting to hudson bay right now frankly. Just sayinHmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 CMC folds, so looks like we're drawing dead. VA Beach deserves some flakes anyways. Maybe Myrtle Beach by Thursday. Back to hoping for a miracle tomorrow. Sunday is too far and I'm not ready yet to get hurt again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Hmm There is no sign the pattern just breaks down and we go into a shutout look...but we've had a pretty freaking good pattern all winter and almost nothing to show for it so I don't know what to think or how to even be excited by anything anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I am skeptical of the day 7 threat...but lets see what happens as it gets under 150 to the range where EVERYTHIGN has shifted south since December without fail. Storms that were cutters at 180 hours ended up suppressed south of Atlanta. We need to get the transfer to happen further south then guidance is suggesting right now...but its well within margin of error given the seasonal trend. Now getting the wave to amplify and not shear out...that might end up the bigger problem if we apply the seasonal tendencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: CMC folds, so looks like we're drawing dead. VA Beach deserves some flakes anyways. Maybe Myrtle Beach by Thursday. Back to hoping for a miracle tomorrow. Sunday is too far and I'm not ready yet to get hurt again. I expect it to keep trending south... I thought it would either amplify enough to bomb along the coast...or get squashed...I never liked the in between option. It's becoming clear which way its going imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 There is no sign the pattern just breaks down and we go into a shutout look...but we've had a pretty freaking good pattern all winter and almost nothing to show for it so I don't know what to think or how to even be excited by anything anymore. Maybe feb is where north America gets the lions share of the cold air? 2014-15 was a good winter that started on Feb 15Also...I get losing the gfs blizzard but why was it all or nothing lol. It had to go from 25 to 0 instead of 25 to 4 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Once the gfs locks in on a cutter 4 to 6 days put....it never deviates. Only when it comes to our weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Icon has some front end I thought? I could only see surface temps and accum precip so was hard to tell what was going on. It’s a close call for you guys. Gfs and cmc nail New England. Philly does well on front end too. The backside of trough kind of rotates around the trough since the block just stops all movement. The way this year has trended its fine at this point. It’s a marginal setup but there is decent cold ahead, but the gradient is pretty far north. Well see, with how these two events have trended im happy just to be able to track another one. The chances of tomorrow quell the pain of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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