January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

[Ji]

the GFS is now the most south model. What an embarrasing performance

[Ji]

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

ICON didn't look all that great to me?

it was "ok".  It got some WAA snows over our area.  I guess the totals are measly but honestly I don't bother to look at that at those ranges.  But again...the wave is falling apart as it tries to press east under the blocking...from 992 in KS to a 1009 shearing out mess near Detroit.  It tried to secondary and was close to something nicer though.   

 I was mostly kidding about "the one" stuff.  I posted a couple times earlier on that threat...the setup had potential but it also shows some of the same limitations we have been suffering from all year.   

Look as the storm is crossing the plains...notice AGAIN the lack of a significant snow shield on the north side of the storm like we would expect from a decently amplified mid winter mid latitude system.  

This thermal profile is disgusting!

There is no strong gradient...no thermal boundary to focus baroclinicity and amplify the surface system.  And the system again looks more like what we expect from a late March/April storm and it starts to shear out as it heads east absent a nice boundary for it to focus along and amplify.  

What we would need for this to work is to get the upper system to crash in and phase with a secondary along the coast kind of like the euro op did but a little further south.  That is not off the table...there are hints at that progression in the guidance...but again its a situation where we are left needing the complicated intricate 10,000 steps all have to go right solution to make this work because the simple way to get snow...ride a system along the thermal boundary and get some nice WAA up over a cold air mass is removed from the equation.  Remember Bob used to say we do simple well...we don't do complicated.  Well everything has to be complicated when you remove true cold from the equation.  

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, high risk said:

         When an upgrade for any model is being prepared, the newer version has to be run in retrospective mode (to generate stats on performance for past years and to recalibrate historical guidance) and then in parallel mode.    NCEP simply doesn't have the computer resources to run retrospectives and then a real-time parallel for both the GFS and GEFS at the same time.

         Ultimately, having the GFS and GEFS not be the exact same model is not ideal at all.    Combining them into a single system will eliminate that flaw.

I have always wondered how current models would have handled some of our past storms that busted pretty close to game time.  Like 1996 when we still expected most of the snow to stay south until about 24 hours out...or 2000 of course.  

[Amped]

The ridge retrograding from GA to TX between 60 and 78 is brutal   Usually it's impossible for us to get rid  of SE ridges. I don't know what to believe anymore. 

[nj2va]

D7 tracks from Iowa to north of Detroit.   Those tracks always work for us!

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

The ridge retrograding from GA to TX between 60 and 78 is brutal   Usually it's impossible for us to get rid  of SE ridges. I don't know what to believe anymore. 

So many little things went the wrong way...but what sticks out there as by far the biggest issue is again what happened in the Atlantic.  The lack of any space between the waves as Thursday's storm reaches the east coast because the previous one lingers there.  There is no room to amplify.  

[psuhoffman]

Just now, nj2va said:

D7 tracks from Iowa to north of Detroit.   Those tracks always work for us!

It will if the GFS adjusts the track the same way its been adjusting everything else from that range all winter long.  We probably want to see the storm cutting to hudson bay right now frankly.   Just sayin

[Ji]

It will if the GFS adjusts the track the same way its been adjusting everything else from that range all winter long.  We probably want to see the storm cutting to hudson bay right now frankly.   Just sayin

Hmm

[NorthArlington101]

CMC folds, so looks like we're drawing dead. VA Beach deserves some flakes anyways. Maybe Myrtle Beach by Thursday. Back to hoping for a miracle tomorrow. Sunday is too far and I'm not ready yet to get hurt again.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

Hmm

There is no sign the pattern just breaks down and we go into a shutout look...but we've had a pretty freaking good pattern all winter and almost nothing to show for it so I don't know what to think or how to even be excited by anything anymore.  

[psuhoffman]

I am skeptical of the day 7 threat...but lets see what happens as it gets under 150 to the range where EVERYTHIGN has shifted south since December without fail.  Storms that were cutters at 180 hours ended up suppressed south of Atlanta.   We need to get the transfer to happen further south then guidance is suggesting right now...but its well within margin of error given the seasonal trend.  Now getting the wave to amplify and not shear out...that might end up the bigger problem if we apply the seasonal tendencies.  

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

CMC folds, so looks like we're drawing dead. VA Beach deserves some flakes anyways. Maybe Myrtle Beach by Thursday. Back to hoping for a miracle tomorrow. Sunday is too far and I'm not ready yet to get hurt again.

I expect it to keep trending south... I thought it would either amplify enough to bomb along the coast...or get squashed...I never liked the in between option.  It's becoming clear which way its going imo.  

[Ji]

There is no sign the pattern just breaks down and we go into a shutout look...but we've had a pretty freaking good pattern all winter and almost nothing to show for it so I don't know what to think or how to even be excited by anything anymore.  

Maybe feb is where north America gets the lions share of the cold air? 2014-15 was a good winter that started on Feb 15

Also...I get losing the gfs blizzard but why was it all or nothing lol. It had to go from 25 to 0 instead of 25 to 4 lol.

[Ji]

Once the gfs locks in on a cutter 4 to 6 days put....it never deviates. Only when it comes to our weather

[Heisy]

Icon has some front end I thought? I could only see surface temps and accum precip so was hard to tell what was going on. It’s a close call for you guys. Gfs and cmc nail New England. Philly does well on front end too. The backside of trough kind of rotates around the trough since the block just stops all movement. The way this year has trended its fine at this point. It’s a marginal setup but there is decent cold ahead, but the gradient is pretty far north. Well see, with how these two events have trended im happy just to be able to track another one. The chances of tomorrow quell the pain of today. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

Maybe feb is where north America gets the lions share of the cold air? 2014-15 was a good winter that started on Feb 15

Also...I get losing the gfs blizzard but why was it all or nothing lol. It had to go from 25 to 0 instead of 25 to 4 lol.

I saw that all or nothing dichotomy because either the wave has the necessary amplitude to begin to amplify a surface system and cut off to our west and it would then foster a bombing secondary along the coast that would tuck in tight with the upper low...or it would fail to reach the necessary amplitude and get suppressed by the flow.  In between doesn't really work.  Its a a critical mass thing to spark the chain reaction we needed...there is a very narrow zone for the in between options...its more likely it amplifies or gets squashed because its too weak.  

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Icon has some front end I thought? I could only see surface temps and accum precip so was hard to tell what was going on. It’s a close call for you guys. Gfs and cmc nail New England. Philly does well on front end too. The backside of trough kind of rotates around the trough since the block just stops all movement. The way this year has trended its fine at this point. It’s a marginal setup but there is decent cold ahead, but the gradient is pretty far north. Well see, with how these two events have trended im happy just to be able to track another one. The chances of tomorrow quell the pain of today. 

It has some light snow on the front...but when you say it looked nice I think most aren't really chasing an inch or two followed by rain on a day 7 threat.  But I am not even worrying about those details at that range anyways...but I agree the way the run was described did not align with what the run looked like.   That GFS run the other night was NICE.  That ICON was...ehh at least its got some pity flakes.  

[Heisy]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It has some light snow on the front...but when you say it looked nice I think most aren't really chasing an inch or two followed by rain on a day 7 threat.  But I am not even worrying about those details at that range anyways...but I agree the way the run was described did not align with what the run looked like.  

Yea my fault, Sv doesn’t offer much on the icon, this is what I got which is annoying to decipher since it overdoes snow for some reason

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Yea my fault, Sv doesn’t offer much on the icon, this is what I got which is annoying to decipher since it overdoes snow for some reason

Yea that looks off.  It’s more like 2-3” which is a hecs by recent standards  

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So this time around...it wasn't the thermally challenged base state that did it, but just another bit of random chaos unable to be seen at a longer range? Oh the roll of the atmospheric dice...lol

It was always going to be a challenge to get the flow to back enough to allow the southern wave to gain much latitude, given the massive NA vortex- yes our beloved "50-50" low, which is actually a deep trough that is positioned too far west. It is sitting there and absorbing all the waves progressing off the coast, including the one that exits later tomorrow. What was to be our 'good storm' is a healthy southern stream wave, but there simply isn't enough spacing between it and the energy from the previous one being ingested into that vortex. Then we have the TPV lobe pressing in. In retrospect what we needed to happen was the southern wave to be slower and/or a phase with that NS energy. Without that, the southern wave can only track straight off the coast and out to sea, where it does induce a  deepening surface low, but way too late, Hopefully we can get some decent wind out if it!

[Ralph Wiggum]

I dont see right now how the day 7 system doesnt undergo the same shred/shear as every other system that has taken the same trajectory all season. Its a wash, rinse, repeat thing. We all know how remainder of this season will play out....threats at days 7-10 that trend to meh most of Feb....Likely some warming days later into Feb, then things get convoluted and turn topsy turvy in March with clusters of well BN temp days and a couple of pasting snow events by mid Month. This is the new norm.

[csnavywx]

Next week looks like a sloppy gyre of disappointment. Some light stuff possible around the slow-moving upper low or perhaps in association with the clipper-type shortwaves that drop in, but don't count on it. Thermals are just anemic for January. Not much quality cold air around to tap into over Canada either.

[frd]

21 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Next week looks like a sloppy gyre of disappointment. Some light stuff possible around the slow-moving upper low or perhaps in association with the clipper-type shortwaves that drop in, but don't count on it. Thermals are just anemic for January. Not much quality cold air around to tap into over Canada either.

 

Eastern Canada with above normal temps. So far from December 1 st never got a signal form the Canadian 10 day mean that portended an incoming cold air mass,  let alone an arctic air mass with staying power. 

Unless the Pac improves and the EPO delivers last lasting cold into Northern Canada that eventually bleeds SE in time we are cooked. 

Meaning Atlantic Ocean SSTs continue to remain relatively stable due to the lack of  arctic intrusions.  For all the - AO , etc. no deliver of Old Man winter. 

 

    

[chris21]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Eastern Canada with above normal temps. So far from December 1 st never got a signal form the Canadian 10 day mean that portended an incoming cold air mass,  let alone an arctic air mass with staying power. 

Unless the Pac improves and the EPO delivers last lasting cold into Northern Canada that eventually bleeds SE in time we are cooked. 

Meaning Atlantic Ocean SSTs continue to remain relatively stable due to the lack of  arctic intrusions.  For all the - AO , etc. no deliver of Old Man winter. 

 

    

Still pretty meh, but honestly a fair amount better than two weeks ago. If there is a month where that type of cold will work it’s February. Hate to be that guy...  it will snow again...

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Nice to see the Eps double down on day 7/8 . 

Not impossible, but all kinds of potential issues with this one. We need something simple lol.

[frd]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Not impossible, but all kinds of potential issues with this one. We need something simple lol.

This is modeled to slow down and spin and then move out. Will feel like a winter's day next Monday. 

Complex is the new norm around here 

[frd]

 

Mount Holly AFD for next Monday, meh, more of the same. 

 

 

For Sunday...An upper-level trough which may be comprised of a
closed low centered near the western Great Lakes during Sunday
sends leading energy in its base into the Mid-Atlantic region.
This will drive surface low pressure near or just south of
Delmarva Sunday night. There is a surface high centered well
north in Canada with some semblance of a wedge down into our
region, however the overall setup is less certain. Given the
main energy hanging back over the Great Lakes, we may be dealing
with some snow to a wintry mix to a change to rain in some
areas. These details are much less certain this far out in time.

&&

[Heisy]

Looks like some really good MJO news. We’ll have opportunities in February.  We may start playing with a -epo or +pna by first week or so

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, frd said:

 

Mount Holly AFD for next Monday, meh, more of the same. 

 

 

For Sunday...An upper-level trough which may be comprised of a
closed low centered near the western Great Lakes during Sunday
sends leading energy in its base into the Mid-Atlantic region.
This will drive surface low pressure near or just south of
Delmarva Sunday night. There is a surface high centered well
north in Canada with some semblance of a wedge down into our
region, however the overall setup is less certain. Given the
main energy hanging back over the Great Lakes, we may be dealing
with some snow to a wintry mix to a change to rain in some
areas. These details are much less certain this far out in time.

&&

Cold leading in, then cold behind is the general idea on the means. so temps are an obvious problem esp for the lowlands, and the coastal transfer has the typical look of occurring too far north/too late for our area. Maybe the WDI will overwhelm the complexity and high probably of failure lol.