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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
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7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Lol giving up on a storm 4 days out when it’s progged to our south? No way. 

Idk, pretty much every meaningful factor is trending the wrong way. More progressive wave, less spacing as psu just noted, better tpv press (which actually might help the day 7 event). If anything I think this may continue to trend farther East. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea and it’s right to be skeptical. But the signal is there and sooner or later it will snow again. Hopefully sooner. 

Agree, certainly didn’t mean I don’t think it won’t snow this winter just pointing out it feels like we’re on a hamster wheel.  “Great signal....24 hour snow mean is 2.5” 7 days out.  Can’t ask for more than that” - sounds familiar :)

Hopefully this one pans out!

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1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Idk, pretty much every meaningful factor is trending the wrong way. More progressive wave, less spacing as psu just noted, better tpv press (which actually might help the day 7 event). If anything I think this may continue to trend farther East. 

The phasing of that TPV with both waves to our northeast sets up the next wave. 

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6 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

I'm thankful for the 10" we got in December because if we didn't we'd be in worse shape (snow-wise) than last year at this point.

I guess if I really want it to snow I should sell the plow and blower.  Isn't that how it always works?

 

We? Not everyone can claim that victory. 0". In any event, it's another rough year (thus far)

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Yes I know it wasn't a widespread event.  The 6 hours of ZR was actually pretty bad for us, still have tree limbs needing to be removed from that.  I love the beauty of an ice storm event and even the sound especially at night.  But the huge crack and thumping as large limbs succumb to the weight of the accreting ice come crashing down, the reality sets in of the cleanup that follows which isn't always fun.  And the power flashes and surges that accompany them inconvenience many.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

When the eps looks great often that one member that sucks is right. But why can’t it ever be this one that’s right...???

I settle for the Euro control,  occasional MECS,  being right once every 5 years.  Such a tease, and hardly ever turns out correct. 

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1 hour ago, Stormfly said:

I'm thankful for the 10" we got in December because if we didn't we'd be in worse shape (snow-wise) than last year at this point.

I guess if I really want it to snow I should sell the plow and blower.  Isn't that how it always works?

 

Me too.  Happy for that 1.0 inches...about the same as what you got only way less.  Closer to 0 than 10.  Still thankful. 

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4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think that tpv is the issue. It’s behind the trough axis. It’s close but so long as it’s behind it’s not compressing that much. It’s not helping unless it dives in behind and phases though. But the bigger issue is the spacing (or lack of) between the waves off the coast and Thursday’s storm. The ridge to the west is too close also.  

Yea, I agree but it’s still discouraging. I mean, yes the ridge axis out west isn’t ideal and yes, there’s some interaction with the departing storm (not ideal). But I feel like we had enough ingredients that a moderate event was possible if we got the right track. That’s the annoying thing, it’s not an awful evolution but the result is a miss.

I do think though that if the TPV isn’t phasing or helping to sharpen the back side of the trough, then it’s hurting.. not helping, imo

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