Warm Nose Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 We need to learn to lose before we learn to win. It’s fine. Next Sunday it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I hope we all remember this the next time there's a Euro vs GFS fight. I gave our models a shot, never again. The Euro luster isn't what it used to be, but it's still a deadly model to bet against. GFS gets too much weight because it’s the most frequent the first every cycle and most available. Imagine had we swapped the JMA and GFS the last 48 hours! We never would have felt the way we did. But in reality the preponderance of evidence would have been the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ji said: 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I hope we all remember this the next time there's a Euro vs GFS fight. I gave our models a shot, never again. The Euro luster isn't what it used to be, but it's still a deadly model to bet against. My rule on the euro worked again. Next time it shows snow and the gfs dosent...the euro will cave EVERY model showed snow for DC 4 days out in December and it still failed! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 What a pile of trash. How many taxpayer dollars are spent on the GFS? You might as well pay chimps to draw snowmaps at the zoo, they'd be as accurate. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, jaydreb said: The GFS gives us snow in 6-7 days from a low running into Indiana. I’m sure that will work out. That’s too north but not by as much as you would think. Given the blocking suppressed flow we want a primary to get into southern Ohio and jump to off the VA capes for a flush hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Wait, you guys are really giving up? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That’s too north but not by as much as you would think. Given the blocking suppressed flow we want a primary to get into southern Ohio and jump to off the VA capes for a flush hit. I agree. Southern Indiana would not be a problem. Ideally central/east Tn/ Ky is best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Look at this BS. The remnants of the early week storm is still sitting just to our northeast as the Thursday wave passes to our south. They actually end up phasing into a bomb in the Atlantic. Lol. When I started to see that wave hanging around longer and longer I dismissed that it would slow to the necessary amount to become this much of an impediment. But it did. An amazing error in timing across all guidance really but especially the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Guidance really starting to like that period Is there a signal lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Guidance really starting to like that period The same thing can be said about Thursday just a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Look at this BS. The remnants of the early week storm is still sitting just to our northeast as the Thursday wave passes to our south. They actually end up phasing into a bomb in the Atlantic. Lol. When I started to see that wave hanging around longer and longer I dismissed that it would slow to the necessary amount to become this much of an impediment. But it did. An amazing error in timing across all guidance really but especially the gfs. Just a few days ago that wave wasn't hanging around. In fact it was dampening out with very light precip sinking back south and we were cooling aloft and surface was chilly . Now we may hit 50 on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 15 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9 10 10 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6 8 9 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5 6 6 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5 5 5 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4 4 5 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3 3 4 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3 2 4 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2 1 3 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 The GFS gives us snow in 6-7 days from a low running into Indiana. I’m sure that will work out. That can easily happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I agree. Southern Indiana would not be a problem. Ideally central/east Tn/ Ky is best. Honestly TN might be too south in this flow. Of course we are too far out to know exactly where the suppression sets up. Gfs is less so then the euro. But in Thursday’s setup for instance, the runs that crushed us had the primary get up into KY/WV or even Ohio. We’ve had big snowstorms from a NW track primary in blocking before. Obviously details we won’t know from range effect each variable and the ideal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 15 minutes ago, mappy said: Wait, you guys are really giving up? I gave up and reaped on December 4th or.somerhinn like that. Seems like a smart call right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Lol giving up on a storm 4 days out when it’s progged to our south? No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Lol giving up on a storm 4 days out when it’s progged to our south? No way. You haven’t paid attention the last month LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, IronTy said: I gave up and reaped on December 4th or.somerhinn like that. Seems like a smart call right about now. They why you here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 21 minutes ago, nj2va said: The same thing can be said about Thursday just a few days ago. Yea and it’s right to be skeptical. But the signal is there and sooner or later it will snow again. Hopefully sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: Lol giving up on a storm 4 days out when it’s progged to our south? No way. Idk, pretty much every meaningful factor is trending the wrong way. More progressive wave, less spacing as psu just noted, better tpv press (which actually might help the day 7 event). If anything I think this may continue to trend farther East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea and it’s right to be skeptical. But the signal is there and sooner or later it will snow again. Hopefully sooner. Agree, certainly didn’t mean I don’t think it won’t snow this winter just pointing out it feels like we’re on a hamster wheel. “Great signal....24 hour snow mean is 2.5” 7 days out. Can’t ask for more than that” - sounds familiar Hopefully this one pans out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Idk, pretty much every meaningful factor is trending the wrong way. More progressive wave, less spacing as psu just noted, better tpv press (which actually might help the day 7 event). If anything I think this may continue to trend farther East. The phasing of that TPV with both waves to our northeast sets up the next wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, mappy said: They why you here? Still hoping I'm wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 You have to admire the blazing speed with which the para goes about its business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 41 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs still some good hits Thursday GEFS has more members and is more dispersive than it was prior to the upgrade, so I'm not really surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Warning for those who like happy things, look away. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You have to admire the blazing speed with which the para goes about its business. My dog also goes about it’s business pretty fast and coincidentally produces the same result as the GFS products. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 37 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You have to admire the blazing speed with which the para goes about its business. I know! So fast. It’s my forecast and I need it now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 When the eps looks great often that one member that sucks is right. But why can’t it ever be this one that’s right...??? it hits DC with all 3 waves. Like 2-4, 2-4, 20” 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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