BristowWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Lp in sw va that gives us no precip. What world do we live in? Yeah we should be revisit this snow idea some other time. My optimism has been depleted. I got nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 LOL, at this point (could end different I suppose) it’s looking like a legendary performance by the gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I'm glad I've gotten to the point where I can just laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just pathetic. This hobby sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 11 minutes ago, snowfan said: Lol. I laughed. GFS was funny. I lol'd for real. What else can we do? 2 days ago we had back to back runs showing us the son of Jan 2016. And now, not even a passing flurry. We all knew the GFS was overdone, sure. But we figured a 3 to 5 inch snowstorm. I would have gladly accepted that. It is what it is, but the frustration level is real. It's hobby...we have real lives and hopefully nobody is on a ledge somewhere. I'm about to pig out on some uber eats and watch the games. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL, at this point (could end different I suppose) it’s looking like a legendary performance by the gfs. I hope we all remember this the next time there's a Euro vs GFS fight. I gave our models a shot, never again. The Euro luster isn't what it used to be, but it's still a deadly model to bet against. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Gfs snow Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: I lol'd for real. What else can we do? 2 days ago we had back to back runs showing us the son of Jan 2016. And now, not even a passing flurry. We all knew the GFS was overdone, sure. But we figured a 3 to 5 inch snowstorm. I would have gladly accepted that. It is what it is, but the frustration level is real. It's hobby...we have real lives and hopefully nobody is on a ledge somewhere. I'm about to pig out on some uber eats and watch the games. All you can do. Keep on keeping on. We’ll try again next season...Lord willing. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I hope we all remember this the next time there's a Euro vs GFS fight. I gave our models a shot, never again. The Euro luster isn't what it used to be, but it's still a deadly model to bet against.My rule on the euro worked again. Next time it shows snow and the gfs dosent...the euro will cave 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 The GFS gives us snow in 6-7 days from a low running into Indiana. I’m sure that will work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Forget it. Focus on next winter. But youuuu said that laaast winterrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Gfs snow Sunday morning Gfs snow Sunday afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 19 minutes ago, Ji said: Lp in sw va that gives us no precip. What world do we live in? We knew we needed that primary to get into WV or OH in this setup because of the suppressive flow. Let’s not act like we thought a typical progressive wave pattern track would work here. Different setup. Just like in a progressive pattern a primary tracking to our west would be no good. Each setup has different variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 22 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Glad you are back. We need you and this is your life! I’ve let this one go. It’s cathartic. But will never stop tracking and analyzing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 We need to learn to lose before we learn to win. It’s fine. Next Sunday it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I hope we all remember this the next time there's a Euro vs GFS fight. I gave our models a shot, never again. The Euro luster isn't what it used to be, but it's still a deadly model to bet against. GFS gets too much weight because it’s the most frequent the first every cycle and most available. Imagine had we swapped the JMA and GFS the last 48 hours! We never would have felt the way we did. But in reality the preponderance of evidence would have been the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ji said: 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I hope we all remember this the next time there's a Euro vs GFS fight. I gave our models a shot, never again. The Euro luster isn't what it used to be, but it's still a deadly model to bet against. My rule on the euro worked again. Next time it shows snow and the gfs dosent...the euro will cave EVERY model showed snow for DC 4 days out in December and it still failed! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 What a pile of trash. How many taxpayer dollars are spent on the GFS? You might as well pay chimps to draw snowmaps at the zoo, they'd be as accurate. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, jaydreb said: The GFS gives us snow in 6-7 days from a low running into Indiana. I’m sure that will work out. That’s too north but not by as much as you would think. Given the blocking suppressed flow we want a primary to get into southern Ohio and jump to off the VA capes for a flush hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Wait, you guys are really giving up? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That’s too north but not by as much as you would think. Given the blocking suppressed flow we want a primary to get into southern Ohio and jump to off the VA capes for a flush hit. I agree. Southern Indiana would not be a problem. Ideally central/east Tn/ Ky is best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Look at this BS. The remnants of the early week storm is still sitting just to our northeast as the Thursday wave passes to our south. They actually end up phasing into a bomb in the Atlantic. Lol. When I started to see that wave hanging around longer and longer I dismissed that it would slow to the necessary amount to become this much of an impediment. But it did. An amazing error in timing across all guidance really but especially the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Guidance really starting to like that period Is there a signal lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Guidance really starting to like that period The same thing can be said about Thursday just a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Look at this BS. The remnants of the early week storm is still sitting just to our northeast as the Thursday wave passes to our south. They actually end up phasing into a bomb in the Atlantic. Lol. When I started to see that wave hanging around longer and longer I dismissed that it would slow to the necessary amount to become this much of an impediment. But it did. An amazing error in timing across all guidance really but especially the gfs. Just a few days ago that wave wasn't hanging around. In fact it was dampening out with very light precip sinking back south and we were cooling aloft and surface was chilly . Now we may hit 50 on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 15 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9 10 10 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6 8 9 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5 6 6 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5 5 5 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4 4 5 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3 3 4 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3 2 4 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2 1 3 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 The GFS gives us snow in 6-7 days from a low running into Indiana. I’m sure that will work out. That can easily happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I agree. Southern Indiana would not be a problem. Ideally central/east Tn/ Ky is best. Honestly TN might be too south in this flow. Of course we are too far out to know exactly where the suppression sets up. Gfs is less so then the euro. But in Thursday’s setup for instance, the runs that crushed us had the primary get up into KY/WV or even Ohio. We’ve had big snowstorms from a NW track primary in blocking before. Obviously details we won’t know from range effect each variable and the ideal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 15 minutes ago, mappy said: Wait, you guys are really giving up? I gave up and reaped on December 4th or.somerhinn like that. Seems like a smart call right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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