BristowWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Fringe hit of 1-3”...that’s funny. If you get 1-3” I get WSW level snow. Neither is likely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Checking in after work and you guys still trying to catch the dangling carrot in front of you on a rope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Frankly I don't hate the 12k NAM. Yeah it's not a huge storm but by the end of the week it has me at around 4-5" which isn't terrible. At least it's enough to cover the grass and maybe allow me to try out my Muck Truck snow plow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No they don’t, and I don’t blame anyone for not giving a crap what I have to say at this point..., but here is the deal. Back on the horse. Analysis. Not using clown snow maps lol. this is the setup for day 4 and then day 8 with key features identified As I said it’s almost a replay do over. The pattern sort of hit the pause/reset button because of the amplification of the Thursday wave delaying the eventual progression. Btw it’s possible if that were to happen with each wave we get through the “reboot” period without ever having the pattern break down before what could evolve mid Feb but one step at a time and that’s rather hopeful but it’s on the table. So what are the difference that could lead to a better outcome day 8. Frankly both look good at a quick glance. It’s not like Thursday is an awful look. But when you zoom in the spacing issue becomes apparent. The wave in front has slowed significantly in the last 72 hours. The ridge behind has shifted east slightly. The combo is compressing the flow around our wave and limiting its ability to amplify. Looking at day 8 the spacing seems better. What sticks out to me is the block is weaker, it’s more just a ridge in northern Quebec by then but that’s fine it’s done it’s dirty work and set up the suppressed flow across the Conus and the 50/50s. The 50/50 is exiting though and there is more space between the waves here on both sides! Don’t mind the lesser amplitude of the wave that’s mostly due to the longer lead time washing things a bit. All features are more muted on ensembles at range. Flashing ahead to the critical moment we need amplification as the wave crosses our longitude you can see the difference with the spacing. All that said...the issues to be careful of here are that the spacing could change. It looked better for Thursday around day 8-10 too then the wave in front slowed down. Also like I’ve said were in a double bind so if the spacing is too great we could go the other way and get rain. But that look there is worthy of interest. It’s basically a do over of Thursday’s setup and I was in love with that look from range so I would by a hypocrite to crap on this next one. Let’s try take 2. lol I went through this morning, but with a lot less words 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Ji. JMA looks decent at the end of its run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I would be shocked because I have not seen things turn better as we get closer in a long time. That said, if I could get 2 inches then it would double my total for the season. 2 inches is underrated. It can have impact and make someone happy. Most prefer 6 inches or more but some are satisfied with a solid 2 inches. Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, PivotPoint said: My rationale two days was either a) storm is more progressive (weaker) and we Chet light snow but perhaps better temp profile (maybe) or b) it’s wound up and we get more dynamics and qpf. The reason we’re failing is confluence to the north created by TPV. I mentioned too much confluence and we get no development and southern track. Pretty sure that’s close to what’s happening. I dunno I don’t think that tpv is the issue. It’s behind the trough axis. It’s close but so long as it’s behind it’s not compressing that much. It’s not helping unless it dives in behind and phases though. But the bigger issue is the spacing (or lack of) between the waves off the coast and Thursday’s storm. The ridge to the west is too close also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 18z gfs looks awful 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Pro tip: don't look at the 18z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Hmm Forget it. Focus on next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 No precip wow. What a failure for the American model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Lp in sw va that gives us no precip. What world do we live in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: 18z gfs looks awful Give it 30 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t think that tpv is the issue. It’s behind the trough axis. It’s close but so long as it’s behind it’s not compressing that much. It’s not helping unless it dives in behind and phases though. But the bigger issue is the spacing (or lack of) between the waves off the coast and Thursday’s storm. The ridge to the west is too close also. Glad you are back. We need you and this is your life! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Lol. I laughed. GFS was funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Lp in sw va that gives us no precip. What world do we live in? The new normal for winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Lp in sw va that gives us no precip. What world do we live in? Yeah we should be revisit this snow idea some other time. My optimism has been depleted. I got nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 LOL, at this point (could end different I suppose) it’s looking like a legendary performance by the gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I'm glad I've gotten to the point where I can just laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just pathetic. This hobby sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 11 minutes ago, snowfan said: Lol. I laughed. GFS was funny. I lol'd for real. What else can we do? 2 days ago we had back to back runs showing us the son of Jan 2016. And now, not even a passing flurry. We all knew the GFS was overdone, sure. But we figured a 3 to 5 inch snowstorm. I would have gladly accepted that. It is what it is, but the frustration level is real. It's hobby...we have real lives and hopefully nobody is on a ledge somewhere. I'm about to pig out on some uber eats and watch the games. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL, at this point (could end different I suppose) it’s looking like a legendary performance by the gfs. I hope we all remember this the next time there's a Euro vs GFS fight. I gave our models a shot, never again. The Euro luster isn't what it used to be, but it's still a deadly model to bet against. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Gfs snow Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: I lol'd for real. What else can we do? 2 days ago we had back to back runs showing us the son of Jan 2016. And now, not even a passing flurry. We all knew the GFS was overdone, sure. But we figured a 3 to 5 inch snowstorm. I would have gladly accepted that. It is what it is, but the frustration level is real. It's hobby...we have real lives and hopefully nobody is on a ledge somewhere. I'm about to pig out on some uber eats and watch the games. All you can do. Keep on keeping on. We’ll try again next season...Lord willing. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I hope we all remember this the next time there's a Euro vs GFS fight. I gave our models a shot, never again. The Euro luster isn't what it used to be, but it's still a deadly model to bet against.My rule on the euro worked again. Next time it shows snow and the gfs dosent...the euro will cave 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 The GFS gives us snow in 6-7 days from a low running into Indiana. I’m sure that will work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Forget it. Focus on next winter. But youuuu said that laaast winterrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Gfs snow Sunday morning Gfs snow Sunday afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 19 minutes ago, Ji said: Lp in sw va that gives us no precip. What world do we live in? We knew we needed that primary to get into WV or OH in this setup because of the suppressive flow. Let’s not act like we thought a typical progressive wave pattern track would work here. Different setup. Just like in a progressive pattern a primary tracking to our west would be no good. Each setup has different variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 22 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Glad you are back. We need you and this is your life! I’ve let this one go. It’s cathartic. But will never stop tracking and analyzing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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