psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 25 minutes ago, frd said: The past few winters it appears all the various model ensembles have had major set backs. Statistically speaking I can not prove it, but one could perceive the overall accuracy has declined. If anything, achieving phasing in a favorable thermal environment is a losing battle the last three years. Very frustrating for sure. It seems anecdotally that spread has decreased days 5-10 on ensembles on both the gfs and euro. They almost always agree with the op now. That is less helpful Imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Cmc is close to a big hit. We need to get that D#&n lobe in Canada to get the hell out of the way. Wouldn't it be something if Dr. No Trends north with the TPV up north too like the CMC and all the other modes at 0z tonight adjust everything north it may happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 It appears the UKIE does not get any precip into MD. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Hopefully things change for the better. However, right now, the return on investment of this 2300 plus response thread reminds me of my Blockbuster Video stock. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 39 minutes ago, jaydreb said: So I’m starting to agree with that poster who always pops in to say the models suck. If an ensemble suite can show that much certainty within 5 days and be wrong then what’s the point of having it at all? You are quite correct Models exist to sustain themselves. It’s all we’ve had for 30 years and they are not looking into any different methods. The very nature of ensembles is to further the cover all bases method such that come funding time one of those 30 panels can be presented as confirmation to the unknowing Dept of Commerce people. Im a weather nut also and let’s face it the cartoons are fun to look at. They are just not predictive of weather but rather illustrative of it Not a troll either but rather experientially seasoned. Used to be 100+ of us clamoring about models back in 2005, over time as the blooms faded participants of regularity have shrunk to 20 all of whom vigorously defend their baby. I thank all of you who helped educate me about 850s and 500 and a Few other things but models and many of the alphabet soup of indexes have not proven to be general fund of knowledge enhancing Thank you for the courage of your comment, more of same is needed even with the chastizements we face 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Imo guidance has been incredibly good giving us a good idea how this threat was evolving at a good range if you know how to be unbiased and use them. Guidance being the key word there right? That’s what it is, a guide... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, MDstorm said: Hopefully things change for the better. However, right now, the return on investment of this 2300 plus response thread reminds me of my Blockbuster Video stock. Maybe we can set up a VIX for regional snow sentiment. I’d love to see that. We’ve certainly had an up day in the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 35 minutes ago, frd said: Still can't believe the arctic oscillation has been negative since December 1st with several dives down below -2 standard deviations, but only one event to show for it. Will seasonal wavelengths changes help in February, hard to tell with the outcomes so far. I often wonder if these indices are actually correlated in the way we think- seems like most of the research on this is derived from comparing prior years’ data with outcomes, which is a relatively small sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: Maybe we can set up a VIX for regional snow sentiment. I’d love to see that. We’ve certainly had an up day in the last 24 hours. VIX would frequently be very high around here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Why does anyone believe a snowy model run outside five days in the MA? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Long time lurker new member here and even though I’m from the south Jersey shore this forum is my go to. A lot of times what happens in the dc area has similar sensible weather in my area. With that said I still believe this storm to be close enough and given the high volatility with that tpv that I would not write this storm off yet regardless of today’s model runs. To end my introductory post I want to thank all of you guys for your great analysis ( besides that ji dude) ; ) 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: You are quite correct Models exist to sustain themselves. It’s all we’ve had for 30 years and they are not looking into any different methods. The very nature of ensembles is to further the cover all bases method such that come funding time one of those 30 panels can be presented as confirmation to the unknowing Dept of Commerce people. Im a weather nut also and let’s face it the cartoons are fun to look at. They are just not predictive of weather but rather illustrative of it Not a troll either but rather experientially seasoned. Used to be 100+ of us clamoring about models back in 2005, over time as the blooms faded participants of regularity have shrunk to 20 all of whom vigorously defend their baby. I thank all of you who helped educate me about 850s and 500 and a Few other things but models and many of the alphabet soup of indexes have not proven to be general fund of knowledge enhancing Thank you for the courage of your comment, more of same is needed even with the chastizements we face You would have NO idea there would be a wave anywhere along along the east coast producing a snow threat somewhere between NC and PA Thursday from 10 days away without using NWP. There is no way to extrapolate that far out using old school methods. It’s a miracle of science we saw this threat along the east coast from day 15!!! You’re using an example of a success as if it’s a failure! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Without rubbing salt in the wound here are we out of the woods for wild swings down this way or do you guys feel like it could still trend even more south because of the tpv? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Without rubbing salt in the wound here are we out of the woods for wild swings down this way or do you guys feel like it could still trend even more south because of the tpv?The Canadian tpv is way north of the gfs but the storm isn't much more north. There are other influences Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I think it’s probably ok for me to say it’s likely this will slide south of us. Two days ago when I said it I was chastised big time but unfortunately my fears have come true. I hate that euro is usually right, ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 The euro shows highest snow totals in VA barely reaching 2". 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Euro is a yawner for most 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Euro still likes us for a coating to an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Stick a fork in this one. Imagine having a -NAO and -AO for two months and getting a couple of sloppy inches. Enjoy the rest of your weekend everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Well if the euro is going to keep trending less progressive with tomorrows system and more progressive with the 28th then 2021 sucks as badly as 2020. It's only the one storm we need to trend slower coming out of the southwest that doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Before all of you guys leave are you sure you don't want to shit on any more doorsteps before you do? Just asking....thanks 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Time to look forward to our March 93 Superstorm pattern... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I was hoping for 4. I guess I’ll be rooting for 2 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Euro ,Para, and Ukmet keying on potential day 7/8 . Lots of tracking ahead Are you really just Justin Berk or Joe Bastardi on here? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Euro ,Para, and Ukmet keying on potential day 7/8 . Lots of tracking ahead Weekend rule. No way it can fail. Frankly, Waking up Friday morning to an inch and nice cold will at least look and feel wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 20 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: I think it’s probably ok for me to say it’s likely this will slide south of us. Two days ago when I said it I was chastised big time but unfortunately my fears have come true. I hate that euro is usually right, ugh I took issue with your reason not the prediction. The high location was a result of other drivers not a cause. The compressed flow in front in the Atlantic and the amplitude of the wave are the real issues. The wave needed to be stronger or the flow more relaxed in front. Some combo. 2 days ago for a bit those things were trending our way across guidance. Since they have gone the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: Thanks. Sounds like guidance as a whole has been good but the GEFS/GFS appears to be terrible. I guess we kinda knew that. GEFS was in 100% agreement basically yesterday...I'm of the opinion any model run or ensemble is only telling you today what it thinks might happen and often that changes with each run. I'm certain they are useful for something but even if psu only had the gefs to look at yesterday he couldn't tell you what today's gfs would do. That said I do think its pretty remarkable the models gave the hint something was going to happen so long ago...but clearly the details even with Thursdays storm aren't clear until most models agree...anyone telling you what Thursday will be is giving an educated guess...we have a general idea right now but not a locked and loaded one. All my opinion of course and to reiterate i think the models ability to generate potential so far in advance is spectacular unfortunately we humans f it up by trying to out predict them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro ,Para, and Ukmet keying on potential day 7/8 . Lots of tracking ahead We’ve been tracking. It would be nice to start hitting. Wrt that I touched on it a bit yesterday, it’s there but it displays the same limitations our other threats have. Limited depth of cold so if the flow relaxes it cuts but if the flow is suppressive enough to keep us supporting of snow the wave starts to look sheared and weak and like a minor event. You might not mind since you sometimes get excited over a snow shower or a few sleet pellets but it’s got the same inhibiting factor wrt chances it’s a significant legit snowstorm. That said it seems everything is going to have to be that kind of thread the needle so if we keep poking at the needle eventually you would think the thread would go through just by chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I honestly dont know how you can trust the Euro anymore. It has had way bigger run to run changes than I am used to seeing from it. It must be broken or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: I honestly dont know how you can trust the Euro anymore. It has had way bigger run to run changes than I am used to seeing from it. It must be broken or something. Is there still a chance that the reduced amount of plane flights globally is making the quality of data lower across the board? Probably less of an issue now than there was in the spring but I can't help but wonder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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