ryanconway63 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 central VA Jackpot I believe, caving to the CMC it would appear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 We suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 what a disaster but we knew it was coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Tragically comical. With both systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Is it such a terrible spot to be in 4 days out, though? Still looks close to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 WB 12Z GFS, caved to the King. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 a storm that transfer from SW VA should not be missing us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Is it such a terrible spot to be in 4 days out, though? Still looks close to me... It’s not, but the issue is this model was the farthest N, you’d prefer to see it kind of stick and stay and other guidance trend towards it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Ooof. GFS is a disaster all week. Total QPF less than a half inch combined for both systems in DC w minimal snow, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 This feature here is simply devastating. Pushes everything further south. What a train wreck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 That energy dropping south of the Hudson Bay is robust this run. It’s almost spooky as it comes out of nowhere to screw us. This is getting painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Is it such a terrible spot to be in 4 days out, though? Still looks close to me... its the trend. If it was trending north it would be a great place to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, 87storms said: The thing that’s stood out to me even on the good gfs runs is that the flow aloft is a bit flatter than I think we’d like out ahead of this. It certainly doesn’t have that hecs look with a deep feed into the gom. Doesn’t mean we can’t get a significant snow but I wonder if a lack of separation from the first system is having an effect. As is, I think we can get by (and might even want) this to be a truly west to east system that favors our lat instead of relying on a wound up coastal. If this fails the lingering of the early week system which decreases the spacing and prevents ridging from really going up behind it is probably the biggest culprit. It’s the biggest change in the overall pattern from when I looked at it a week ago and really like it. The spacing isn’t as good now. Of course as the system approaches we are barely on the cold side and temps crash as the coastal forms...so whose to say had ridging gone up more this doesn’t cut and jump to the coast too far north like a lot of the gefs members that rained on us the other day. Our “win zone” with every storm is so narrow with the current temperature profile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Man WTF I didn't expect this stupid ass TPV to screw everything over. I hope it trends so far south that southern Virginia gets very little snow because it's too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 It will probably end up even further south in all honesty. The number of ways we fail is comical at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Ji said: its the trend. If it was trending north it would be a great place to be Where is the north trend when we need it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Para GFS looks pretty decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 From almost 0.9” to 0.1” in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: If this fails the lingering of the early week system which decreases the spacing and prevents ridging from really going up behind it is probably the biggest culprit. It’s the biggest change in the overall pattern from when I looked at it a week ago and really like it. The spacing isn’t as good now. Of course as the system approaches we are barely on the cold side and temps crash as the coastal forms...so whose to set had ridging gone up more this doesn’t cut and jump to the coast too far north like a lot of the gefs members that rained on us the other day. Our “win zone” with every storm is so narrow with the current temperature profile. I’d also think that traditionally, with a low as strong as the GFS is depicting moving across southern Virginia it would create a larger shield of snow on the north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Would be funny if euro is north. This gfs run isn’t impossible and still 5 days out, but can see that there’s only so much lat for this system to gain, assuming the blocking is as legit as advertised. Still trackable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: Where is the north trend when we need it? Non-existent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 It looks like CMC ticked south too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 How does the GFS compare to the PARA GFS? PARA GFS superior? thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Para GFS looks pretty decent. South trend clear on that though as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Para GFS looks pretty decent. Southern shift is definitely reflected in that stronger TPV over the lakes. Wasn't even there a few runs ago. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: South trend clear on that though as well I did see that, but it looks better than the regular GFS and I guess a South trend doesn't hurt as much when you live around Fredericksburg. I'm still just hopeful to see maybe 2" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: From almost 0.9” to 0.1” in one run. The story of our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Why do you guys even post the gefsSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: How does the GFS compare to the PARA GFS? PARA GFS superior? thoughts? Para GFS has marginally higher scores @500mb. Like .01 better. eta: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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