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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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9 minutes ago, 87storms said:

The thing that’s stood out to me even on the good gfs runs is that the flow aloft is a bit flatter than I think we’d like out ahead of this. It certainly doesn’t have that hecs look with a deep feed into the gom. Doesn’t mean we can’t get a significant snow but I wonder if a lack of separation from the first system is having an effect. As is, I think we can get by (and might even want) this to be a truly west to east system that favors our lat instead of relying on a wound up coastal.

If this fails the lingering of the early week system which decreases the spacing and prevents ridging from really going up behind it is probably the biggest culprit. It’s the biggest change in the overall pattern from when I looked at it a week ago and really like it. The spacing isn’t as good now. Of course as the system approaches we are barely on the cold side and temps crash as the coastal forms...so whose to say had ridging gone up more this doesn’t cut and jump to the coast too far north like a lot of the gefs members that rained on us the other day. Our “win zone” with every storm is so narrow with the current temperature profile.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

If this fails the lingering of the early week system which decreases the spacing and prevents ridging from really going up behind it is probably the biggest culprit. It’s the biggest change in the overall pattern from when I looked at it a week ago and really like it. The spacing isn’t as good now. Of course as the system approaches we are barely on the cold side and temps crash as the coastal forms...so whose to set had ridging gone up more this doesn’t cut and jump to the coast too far north like a lot of the gefs members that rained on us the other day. Our “win zone” with every storm is so narrow with the current temperature profile.  

I’d also think that traditionally, with a low as strong as the GFS is depicting moving across southern Virginia it would create a larger shield of snow on the north side. 

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