Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 33 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: The TPV (as represented by GFSv16) continues to accelerate south/southeast and begins (continues?) to influence our favorite anomaly. Based on the movement of the TPV one would think we are looking at different times but no all of the plots below are from 7 AM on the 28th PNA ridge is better each run too. Wont make a diff until its offshore tho but would have been nice to get it to amplify more and go negative earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Ofc nothing happens in isolation, so it's always a combination of events that conspire to screw us out of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 If there are going to be any notable changes with this, it will likely be in the modeling over the next 24-36 hrs as the energy associated with the system moves onshore and traverses the Rockies. With these more significant systems, history has taught us that it is this period that might cause some shifting around, but we'll see. This one looks fairly close on most guidance attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If there are going to be any notable changes with this, it will likely be in the modeling over the next 24-36 hrs as the energy associated with the system moves onshore and traverses the Rockies. With these more significant systems, history has taught us that it is this period that might cause some shifting around, but we'll see. This one looks fairly close on most guidance attm. Ralph where do you feel heaviest snow swath sets up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 9 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS is a nice run after this storm as well. Patience finally paying off?? Who on here has been patient? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: PNA ridge is better each run too. Wont make a diff until its offshore tho but would have been nice to get it to amplify more and go negative earlier. It looks like it is trying to go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 16 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Ralph where do you feel heaviest snow swath sets up? Winchester 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Somebody once told me there was a 6z euro. Any truth to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Winchester Winchester to Bristow. Wherever the hell that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Somebody once told me there was a 6z euro. Any truth to that? Yes, but it only goes out to 90 hrs or something ETA: but you know more about the weather than I do, so that might have been a joke that went over my head! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 If the CMC holds true which is between the GFS and Euro currently, I would say Richmond to Northern Neck of Virginia are sitting in a good spot. Especially if that low starts cranking off the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Somebody once told me there was a 6z euro. Any truth to that? 6z EPS looks essentially the same as 0z. Probably a tick further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 6z EPS looks essentially the same as 0z. Probably a tick further SE.LolSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I added that last part in to induce a Ji reply. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Synoptically nam and gfs look relatively similar on 5h with s/w but differ with tpv. Gfs has tpv more north and east of 12z nam placement. Nam looks more like ukmet and euro at the surface so there’s that too I.e more south, weaker strung out low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Not really loving the nam. It looked good at 60Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 For what it’s worth WB 12Z 12K NAM at 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 12z Icon is a hit for Fredericksburg down to the VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 12z Icon is a hit for Fredericksburg down to the VA/NC border. thats actually really good cause it was weak and south for a few days 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Ji said: thats actually really good cause it was weak and south for a few days Damn I wanted to say that 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Who’s doing GFS pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Who’s doing GFS pbp? its looking like its going to go south/weaker but well see. To me weaker will be south 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 More tpv press, less confluence over the north east through 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 The thing that’s stood out to me even on the good gfs runs is that the flow aloft is a bit flatter than I think we’d like out ahead of this. It certainly doesn’t have that hecs look with a deep feed into the gom. Doesn’t mean we can’t get a significant snow but I wonder if a lack of separation from the first system is having an effect. As is, I think we can get by (and might even want) this to be a truly west to east system that favors our lat instead of relying on a wound up coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: More tpv press, less confluence over the north east through 60 its actually looks like a more consolidated SW in the middle of the country than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 21 hours ago, stormtracker said: This is the post i was waiting for. It’s gonna snow y’all. Don't we wish. The Euro slid back but not as far as the UKMET. The 06Z Euro ensembles only give us a 10 to 20 percent chance of 3 inches. The 06Z GEFS loves us. Why do I think it better to be with the UKMET and Euro? Still too early to give up. I still write for the post so that limits me from saying too much until we post our article. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Progression of system seems to have really sped up between 72-78 based on 5h and surface depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Sigh, this run will be a lot more progressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GFS is south with the heaviest stuff at 90. Southern VA special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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