Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Synoptically nam and gfs look relatively similar on 5h with s/w but differ with tpv. Gfs has tpv more north and east of 12z nam placement. Nam looks more like ukmet and euro at the surface so there’s that too I.e more south, weaker strung out low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Not really loving the nam. It looked good at 60Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 For what it’s worth WB 12Z 12K NAM at 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 12z Icon is a hit for Fredericksburg down to the VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 12z Icon is a hit for Fredericksburg down to the VA/NC border. thats actually really good cause it was weak and south for a few days 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Ji said: thats actually really good cause it was weak and south for a few days Damn I wanted to say that 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Who’s doing GFS pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Who’s doing GFS pbp? its looking like its going to go south/weaker but well see. To me weaker will be south 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 More tpv press, less confluence over the north east through 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 The thing that’s stood out to me even on the good gfs runs is that the flow aloft is a bit flatter than I think we’d like out ahead of this. It certainly doesn’t have that hecs look with a deep feed into the gom. Doesn’t mean we can’t get a significant snow but I wonder if a lack of separation from the first system is having an effect. As is, I think we can get by (and might even want) this to be a truly west to east system that favors our lat instead of relying on a wound up coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: More tpv press, less confluence over the north east through 60 its actually looks like a more consolidated SW in the middle of the country than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 21 hours ago, stormtracker said: This is the post i was waiting for. It’s gonna snow y’all. Don't we wish. The Euro slid back but not as far as the UKMET. The 06Z Euro ensembles only give us a 10 to 20 percent chance of 3 inches. The 06Z GEFS loves us. Why do I think it better to be with the UKMET and Euro? Still too early to give up. I still write for the post so that limits me from saying too much until we post our article. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Progression of system seems to have really sped up between 72-78 based on 5h and surface depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Sigh, this run will be a lot more progressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GFS is south with the heaviest stuff at 90. Southern VA special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 central VA Jackpot I believe, caving to the CMC it would appear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 We suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 what a disaster but we knew it was coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Tragically comical. With both systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Is it such a terrible spot to be in 4 days out, though? Still looks close to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 WB 12Z GFS, caved to the King. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 a storm that transfer from SW VA should not be missing us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Is it such a terrible spot to be in 4 days out, though? Still looks close to me... It’s not, but the issue is this model was the farthest N, you’d prefer to see it kind of stick and stay and other guidance trend towards it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Ooof. GFS is a disaster all week. Total QPF less than a half inch combined for both systems in DC w minimal snow, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 This feature here is simply devastating. Pushes everything further south. What a train wreck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 That energy dropping south of the Hudson Bay is robust this run. It’s almost spooky as it comes out of nowhere to screw us. This is getting painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Is it such a terrible spot to be in 4 days out, though? Still looks close to me... its the trend. If it was trending north it would be a great place to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, 87storms said: The thing that’s stood out to me even on the good gfs runs is that the flow aloft is a bit flatter than I think we’d like out ahead of this. It certainly doesn’t have that hecs look with a deep feed into the gom. Doesn’t mean we can’t get a significant snow but I wonder if a lack of separation from the first system is having an effect. As is, I think we can get by (and might even want) this to be a truly west to east system that favors our lat instead of relying on a wound up coastal. If this fails the lingering of the early week system which decreases the spacing and prevents ridging from really going up behind it is probably the biggest culprit. It’s the biggest change in the overall pattern from when I looked at it a week ago and really like it. The spacing isn’t as good now. Of course as the system approaches we are barely on the cold side and temps crash as the coastal forms...so whose to say had ridging gone up more this doesn’t cut and jump to the coast too far north like a lot of the gefs members that rained on us the other day. Our “win zone” with every storm is so narrow with the current temperature profile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Man WTF I didn't expect this stupid ass TPV to screw everything over. I hope it trends so far south that southern Virginia gets very little snow because it's too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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