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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

A step back from 0z I think just looking back. Still good.  

It's the same or slightly better for the eastern third of the region. Not as good for places further south, and not as juiced up for the higher terrain of VA/WV. A more evenly distributed jackpot zone on the mean, but not as expansive.

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Just now, CAPE said:

It's the same or slightly better for the eastern third of the region. Not as good for places further south, and not as juiced up for the higher terrain of VA/WV. A more evenly distributed jackpot zone on the mean, but not as expansive.

My yard is in/near that jackpot zone.  Can’t complain but this still seems like it’s teetering on collapse.  Must be the Euro lack of enthusiasm.  

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It's just me but I'd rather be south than north with this one. There have been more runs from all models showing central Virginia hits since this thing became visible. Me personally I'd like tonight's 0z runs start to shift a little north...even the gfs..12z runs have to at least hold even the southern ones...I'd bet ji's new puppy if we see a south move at 12z it's going to be a death walk from there. 

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It's just me but I'd rather be south than north with this one. There have been more runs from all models showing central Virginia hits since this thing became visible. Me personally I'd like tonight's 0z runs start to shift a little north...even the gfs..12z runs have to at least hold even the southern ones...I'd bet ji's new puppy if we see a south move at 12z it's going to be a death walk from there. 
Go south then....your single.
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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
20 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
It's just me but I'd rather be south than north with this one. There have been more runs from all models showing central Virginia hits since this thing became visible. Me personally I'd like tonight's 0z runs start to shift a little north...even the gfs..12z runs have to at least hold even the southern ones...I'd bet ji's new puppy if we see a south move at 12z it's going to be a death walk from there. 

Go south then....your single.

But my gf lives North :(

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

The sw will only shore in about 36 hours per gfs. Epic fail for the American model upcoming. You know the caving will begin today at 12z

Will you follow it to the end and be serene about it or go down kicking and screaming like a 15 yr old girl who got her phone taken away from her?

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Will you follow it to the end and be serene about it or go down kicking and screaming like a 15 yr old girl who got her phone taken away from her?
I know it's coming so I've prepared for it. I'll probably have a meltdown just because it will make me feel better
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31 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

My yard is in/near that jackpot zone.  Can’t complain but this still seems like it’s teetering on collapse.  Must be the Euro lack of enthusiasm.  

Comparing the most recent couple GFS runs to say 0z/6z yesterday, it seems to be taking baby steps towards the Euro at h5. Less spacing/more interaction with the NA trough, and so not as much ridging out in front. A shortwave can't induce deep low pressure at the surface when it is too close to the upper convergence region of a downstream trough.

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Comparing the most recent couple GFS runs to say 0z/6z yesterday, it seems to be taking baby steps towards the Euro at h5. Less spacing/more interaction with the NA trough, and so not as much ridging out in front. A shortwave can't induce deep low pressure at the surface when it is too close to the upper convergence region of a downstream trough.
Just so stupid how things come out of nowhere and ruin our snow

75d9855be9824cf160a5da2303f58207.gif
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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Comparing the most recent couple GFS runs to say 0z/6z yesterday, it seems to be taking baby steps towards the Euro at h5. Less spacing/more interaction with the NA trough, and so not as much ridging out in front. A shortwave can't induce deep low pressure at the surface when it is too close to the upper convergence region of a downstream trough.

Just be gentle when it caves

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Just so stupid how things come out of nowhere and ruin our snow

75d9855be9824cf160a5da2303f58207.gif

Its not coming out of nowhere you can clearly see it diving south eah run...Webb showed a graphic showing how that feature was diving in from the artic at breakneck speed. That's what is going to suppress this thing for central VA and Northern NC. I'm calling it now honestly...hopefully getting an inch or so on Thursday is my bar.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

Just so stupid how things come out of nowhere and ruin our snow

75d9855be9824cf160a5da2303f58207.gif

Not sure that TPV lobe is the biggest problem. I am talking about what's going on out in front. Focus on the heights to the east on this animation. Less spacing/more interaction with the NA vortex.

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10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Comparing the most recent couple GFS runs to say 0z/6z yesterday, it seems to be taking baby steps towards the Euro at h5. Less spacing/more interaction with the NA trough, and so not as much ridging out in front. A shortwave can't induce deep low pressure at the surface when it is too close to the upper convergence region of a downstream trough.

I would say Para would be a great happy medium for everyone in the forum IMO specifically with distribution of snow totals if taken at face value. Manages between 00z and 06z to have strengthened the storm by a couple mb albeit It is hauling ass. Has it at 988 east of RIC. 

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7 hours ago, LP08 said:

15CE1CA2-5DC9-4F6E-AE86-74961CB68C57.png

 

7 hours ago, PivotPoint said:

Why is it that TT looks like this... WB is way better. Must be the algo it uses. Huh

image.thumb.png.7fa953889d59757544d0e3d6ef599e45.png

 

7 hours ago, Cobalt said:

GFS is not gonna get a handle on the snow maps even with Kuchera.. using a precip map shows that yeah its pretty juicy for many. 

gfs-deterministic-ma-precip_24hr_inch-1874800.thumb.png.407b97fb4ff91c9a37d9e8d485ff34f7.png

Yea, but what I was getting at was why does the snow map on the 24hr WB look different than the snow map on TT? DC on WB is completely different. So it has to use a different algorithm

See maps above yours

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34 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Is that vortex retrograding to the west?

The GFS has trended further west/more interaction with that feature over multiple runs. 

eta- To be clear, I am not saying this is going to wreck the chances of a good outcome, just that this is closer to the Euro depiction wrt this feature. 

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EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 14 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9 10

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6 8

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5 6

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5 5

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4 4

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3 3

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3 2

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2 1

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2 1

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30 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Hey Wonderdog.  Unless this totally craps the sheets we could get our first warning level snow in a billion years...give or take a billion .  

Can I just get clarification from you or @CAPE as to what happens if the models are mistiming this TPV and it comes even further south and east. Does that mean confluence starts to strengthen and force the storm more south of its current projection? 

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30 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

The TPV (as represented by GFSv16) continues to accelerate south/southeast and begins (continues?) to influence our favorite anomaly.  Based on the movement of the TPV one would think we are looking at different times but no all of the plots below are from 7 AM on the 28th

743181620_trend-gfs_para-2021012318-f114.500h_anom.conus(1).gif.bdfb9dd91de19e5fc82c040ee92ec652.gif

Euro has had the same general trend with that feature. Fwiw, the CMC had the strongest/ furthest south TPV a few runs ago(almost phased), and still produced a good snowstorm. It has since shifted it further north and weaker.

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Good morning all! From Larry Cosgrove:

The forecast for the later week exemplifies what makes synoptic meteorology both exciting, while at the same time stressful. Unlike the ejecting disturbance in the near term, which will have issues with confluence and orographic dispersion, the second impulse will have an ideal chance at growth as the center will redevelop after crossing the Appalachian Mountains in southern Virginia on early Thursday morning. With a portion of the mAk vortex in Newfoundland retrogressing back into New England, a capture mechanism at 500MB will be present which will allow for both rapid deepening and leftward recurvature. As I have cautioned since last weekend, there is a chance that the normal model rightward bias will be evident with this feature. There is a chance, about 1 in 3, that snowfall impacts, along with wind, could be felt along the Interstate 95 corridor on Thursday and Friday. Yes, the center may shift far enough off of the Atlantic coastline as to minimize winter weather risks to the major cities. But I do not like the idea of writing this feature off, since you can detect a stronger intensity and more west trajectory in recent runs of the computer schemes.

 
As things stand now, the only relatively sure threat for heavy snow and mixed precipitation is across the Virginias, Washington DC, Maryland and Delaware. The no-snow line should run just above the North Carolina border, but I would not be surprised if the northern portion of the Tar Heel State gets some sleet or snow in the end phase of the low pressure passage, which looks to emerge int0o the open Atlantic Ocean very near Norfolk VA on Thursday afternoon. We should soon know on the Sunday 12z model runs if this is "one for the fish" or "the snowbirds got their wish".
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15 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Can I just get clarification from you or @CAPE as to what happens if the models are mistiming this TPV and it comes even further south and east. Does that mean confluence starts to strengthen and force the storm more south of its current projection? 

There is always going to be NS energy to contend with. That is a function of having a weak SPV/-AO. With the high amplitude ridge to the west of the shortwave, the TPV lobe should not be as disruptive as it could be with a much flatter h5 look. Even with the southward trend of that feature on the GFS, it hasn't had a ton of impact to this point. I still think the 'bigger' issue is a bit too much interaction between the shortwave and the NA trough. The Euro has been persistent with that idea, and as a result the shortwave is not as sharp, and the surface low ends up weaker/further SE.

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