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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

A step back from 0z I think just looking back. Still good.  

It's the same or slightly better for the eastern third of the region. Not as good for places further south, and not as juiced up for the higher terrain of VA/WV. A more evenly distributed jackpot zone on the mean, but not as expansive.

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Just now, CAPE said:

It's the same or slightly better for the eastern third of the region. Not as good for places further south, and not as juiced up for the higher terrain of VA/WV. A more evenly distributed jackpot zone on the mean, but not as expansive.

My yard is in/near that jackpot zone.  Can’t complain but this still seems like it’s teetering on collapse.  Must be the Euro lack of enthusiasm.  

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It's just me but I'd rather be south than north with this one. There have been more runs from all models showing central Virginia hits since this thing became visible. Me personally I'd like tonight's 0z runs start to shift a little north...even the gfs..12z runs have to at least hold even the southern ones...I'd bet ji's new puppy if we see a south move at 12z it's going to be a death walk from there. 

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It's just me but I'd rather be south than north with this one. There have been more runs from all models showing central Virginia hits since this thing became visible. Me personally I'd like tonight's 0z runs start to shift a little north...even the gfs..12z runs have to at least hold even the southern ones...I'd bet ji's new puppy if we see a south move at 12z it's going to be a death walk from there. 
Go south then....your single.
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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
20 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
It's just me but I'd rather be south than north with this one. There have been more runs from all models showing central Virginia hits since this thing became visible. Me personally I'd like tonight's 0z runs start to shift a little north...even the gfs..12z runs have to at least hold even the southern ones...I'd bet ji's new puppy if we see a south move at 12z it's going to be a death walk from there. 

Go south then....your single.

But my gf lives North :(

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

The sw will only shore in about 36 hours per gfs. Epic fail for the American model upcoming. You know the caving will begin today at 12z

Will you follow it to the end and be serene about it or go down kicking and screaming like a 15 yr old girl who got her phone taken away from her?

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Will you follow it to the end and be serene about it or go down kicking and screaming like a 15 yr old girl who got her phone taken away from her?
I know it's coming so I've prepared for it. I'll probably have a meltdown just because it will make me feel better
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31 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

My yard is in/near that jackpot zone.  Can’t complain but this still seems like it’s teetering on collapse.  Must be the Euro lack of enthusiasm.  

Comparing the most recent couple GFS runs to say 0z/6z yesterday, it seems to be taking baby steps towards the Euro at h5. Less spacing/more interaction with the NA trough, and so not as much ridging out in front. A shortwave can't induce deep low pressure at the surface when it is too close to the upper convergence region of a downstream trough.

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Comparing the most recent couple GFS runs to say 0z/6z yesterday, it seems to be taking baby steps towards the Euro at h5. Less spacing/more interaction with the NA trough, and so not as much ridging out in front. A shortwave can't induce deep low pressure at the surface when it is too close to the upper convergence region of a downstream trough.
Just so stupid how things come out of nowhere and ruin our snow

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