snowfan Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 And before the posts come.....we don’t need double digits. We’re just looking for something that requires the use of a shovel 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 The deepening rates models have been consistently showing with this storm are insane. 994-976mb in 6 hrs. 1005 to 967mb in 18hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, snowfan said: And before the posts come.....we don’t need double digits. We’re just looking for something that requires the use of a shovel In other words...warning level! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Amped said: The deepening rates models have been consistently showing with this storm are insane. 994-976mb in 6 hrs. 1005 to 967mb in 18hrs. Could be a little brisk later Thursday if that ends up being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I’m good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Going to bed before the euro sh!ts on the parade. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Get your decoders out for the GGEM! 978 well offshore VA beach. I’d think its a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Amped said: The deepening rates models have been consistently showing with this storm are insane. 994-976mb in 6 hrs. 1005 to 967mb in 18hrs. Handily crushes the bombogenesis standard! Too bad there's no explosion emoji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 FWIW, the GEFS thru 72 are much weaker and farther N with the tpv piece as well. Should see some more members leaning N this suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Get your decoders out for the GGEM! 978 well offshore VA beach. I’d think its a hit though. 96 hrs pls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Get your decoders out for the GGEM! 978 well offshore VA beach. I’d think its a hit though. Do you have a link to this source? Also anyone have a link to the 500mb verification charts from NCEP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, LP08 said: Why is it that TT looks like this... WB is way better. Must be the algo it uses. Huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: 96 hrs pls 96 has the low on the AL/TN border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, PivotPoint said: Why is it that TT looks like this... WB is way better. Must be the algo it uses. Huh GFS is not gonna get a handle on the snow maps even with Kuchera.. using a precip map shows that yeah its pretty juicy for many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowDreamer said: Do you have a link to this source? Also anyone have a link to the 500mb verification charts from NCEP? https://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Aside from the snow this might be a tracking dream to see a bomb like that at our latitude. Used to only seeing that in the gulf of Maine 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 how do we get the upper level low to slow/close just to our west? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Fringed Typical model error. You know how this works. There is never that slow gradual tapering like that. The guidance never sees that enhanced lift area on the north fringe banked up against the confluence to the north. Happens time and again. If this run was correct wrt surface and h5 track and intensity this would be the real result. Somewhere near that red like would be a sharp cutoff with south of that line getting more then what is depicted there and closer to the Max down in VA. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Para GFS takes a step south from 18Z. Parts of WV/MD fringed. 6"+ for VA and DC though. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 CMC looks to be an improvement from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GEFS are noice 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Typical model error. You know how this works. There is never that slow gradual tapering like that. The guidance never sees that enhanced lift area on the north fringe banked up against the confluence to the north. Happens time and again. If this run was correct wrt surface and h5 track and intensity this would be the real result. Somewhere near that red like would be a sharp cutoff with south of that line getting more then what is depicted there and closer to the Max down in VA. Geez u couldn't draw the red line 7 miles farther N for me? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Gfs, para and cmc in pretty good agreement considering we’re still 4.5 days out. A good 0z suite so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ji said: how do we get the upper level low to slow/close just to our west? Ask politely? I’m sure that’s not the final outcome. But the goal posts as psu says are narrowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 WB GEFS 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GEFS looks great. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: GEFS looks great. Pretty sizable jump in the snow means. Purpled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 WB 0Z GEFS 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Can someone post 114 from gefs? You guys looking solid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 something feels off..... oh i know what it is. the euro gives us more snow Monday night than Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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