nj2va Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowDreamer said: Do you have a link to this source? Also anyone have a link to the 500mb verification charts from NCEP? https://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Aside from the snow this might be a tracking dream to see a bomb like that at our latitude. Used to only seeing that in the gulf of Maine 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 how do we get the upper level low to slow/close just to our west? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Fringed Typical model error. You know how this works. There is never that slow gradual tapering like that. The guidance never sees that enhanced lift area on the north fringe banked up against the confluence to the north. Happens time and again. If this run was correct wrt surface and h5 track and intensity this would be the real result. Somewhere near that red like would be a sharp cutoff with south of that line getting more then what is depicted there and closer to the Max down in VA. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Para GFS takes a step south from 18Z. Parts of WV/MD fringed. 6"+ for VA and DC though. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 CMC looks to be an improvement from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GEFS are noice 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Typical model error. You know how this works. There is never that slow gradual tapering like that. The guidance never sees that enhanced lift area on the north fringe banked up against the confluence to the north. Happens time and again. If this run was correct wrt surface and h5 track and intensity this would be the real result. Somewhere near that red like would be a sharp cutoff with south of that line getting more then what is depicted there and closer to the Max down in VA. Geez u couldn't draw the red line 7 miles farther N for me? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Gfs, para and cmc in pretty good agreement considering we’re still 4.5 days out. A good 0z suite so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ji said: how do we get the upper level low to slow/close just to our west? Ask politely? I’m sure that’s not the final outcome. But the goal posts as psu says are narrowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 WB GEFS 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GEFS looks great. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: GEFS looks great. Pretty sizable jump in the snow means. Purpled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 WB 0Z GEFS 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Can someone post 114 from gefs? You guys looking solid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 something feels off..... oh i know what it is. the euro gives us more snow Monday night than Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Almost every member is a snowstorm. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GFS is quite chilly following the storm for a couple days which leads to some frozen for the next wave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GEFS...strong clustering N and W (108 and 114): 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Almost every member is a snowstorm. Love it. it can stay right where it is though ... don't want to wake up to 34 degree rain in Lynchburg on Thursday morning with 6" on the ground back home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS...strong clustering N and W (108 and 114): i like that! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 why is icon not there yet?...look how S and E the TPV is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 @Ralph Wiggum dug this up...that gfs track and intensity was pretty identical to a previous storm with similar strong blocking. This doesn’t have the same upside because it’s moving faster and doesn’t have the same stj juice but this gives an idea of what the precip representation for a storm of that amplitude and that track should look like. Some differences. The primary was a little stronger to the west initially and after that point above the Feb 2010 storm gained SLIGHTY more latitude but by then it was occluding and the precip was sinking southeast anyways. I would obviously scale back the qpf a lot here and I would shift the northern fringe south maybe 20 miles. But just saying if that gfs track and intensity was correct the results into southern PA would be a lot better. But there would be a brick wall somewhere not far north of Philly. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 0z CMC is 3-6” area wide. EDIT: Storm drops 22 mb in 6 hours. From 992 to 970. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 WB 0Z GEFS prob maps...3, 6, 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 i always thought that when there was strong blocking==there would be a better chance for a slower/even stalled storm lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: 0z CMC is 3-6” area wide. yea thats a big no for me boss 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GFS is a nice run after this storm as well. Patience finally paying off?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GEFS prob maps...3, 6, 12 Here's the probability of 1" of snow just to get the full picture: Compared to 18z and yeah you can tell which is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Good evening, snow weenies! I await your arrival so I can crush your dreams in about an hour and three quarters!! 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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