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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fringed 

Typical model error. You know how this works. There is never that slow gradual tapering like that. The guidance never sees that enhanced lift area on the north fringe banked up against the confluence to the north.  Happens time and again. If this run was correct wrt surface and h5 track and intensity this would be the real result.  Somewhere near that red like would be a sharp cutoff with south of that line getting more then what is depicted there and closer to the Max down in VA.   
BA13656D-0E34-477B-A3AF-D9C77573B97C.jpeg.467baa8a780624f9288775c98b04a06c.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Typical model error. You know how this works. There is never that slow gradual tapering like that. The guidance never sees that enhanced lift area on the north fringe banked up against the confluence to the north.  Happens time and again. If this run was correct wrt surface and h5 track and intensity this would be the real result.  Somewhere near that red like would be a sharp cutoff with south of that line getting more then what is depicted there and closer to the Max down in VA.   
BA13656D-0E34-477B-A3AF-D9C77573B97C.jpeg.467baa8a780624f9288775c98b04a06c.jpeg

Geez u couldn't draw the red line 7 miles farther N for me? :D

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