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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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This is an anecdotal observation...I’ve not done an unbiased study or anything to confirm, but over the last few years I’ve found the geps to be unhelpful with medium range synoptic details. Often it will trend one way then jump back the next. Often when it differs from the op (in situations where the cmc op is in line with other guidance) the geps caves to the op. It just did that with the last 2 storms actually. Showed something vastly different then the operational and caved to the operational.  So when the geps shows something “weird” not in line with the op OR other guidance I’ve learned to just toss it. 
I noticed the same thing with the Brazilian
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Just now, Ji said:
10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
This is an anecdotal observation...I’ve not done an unbiased study or anything to confirm, but over the last few years I’ve found the geps to be unhelpful with medium range synoptic details. Often it will trend one way then jump back the next. Often when it differs from the op (in situations where the cmc op is in line with other guidance) the geps caves to the op. It just did that with the last 2 storms actually. Showed something vastly different then the operational and caved to the operational.  So when the geps shows something “weird” not in line with the op OR other guidance I’ve learned to just toss it. 

I noticed the same thing with the Brazilian

But at least it looks good in a bikini 

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Just now, Ji said:
10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
This is an anecdotal observation...I’ve not done an unbiased study or anything to confirm, but over the last few years I’ve found the geps to be unhelpful with medium range synoptic details. Often it will trend one way then jump back the next. Often when it differs from the op (in situations where the cmc op is in line with other guidance) the geps caves to the op. It just did that with the last 2 storms actually. Showed something vastly different then the operational and caved to the operational.  So when the geps shows something “weird” not in line with the op OR other guidance I’ve learned to just toss it. 

I noticed the same thing with the Brazilian

Whatever happens , last nights 00z gfs run was the best 20 minutes of the winter. 

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7 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Most important runs of the year

eta: ninja’d by Ralph Wiggum

To help keep me sane I’ll expect a step backwards with a 967 mb low leaving South Carolina..,

 

but for real the solutions that show sub 980 mb lows are most likely wrong without the flow amplifiying along the east coast.  Reality will most likely be a continued east moving quasi Souther slider at 990 to 997 mb leaving just south of Virginia Beach.  Don’t they often say the latitude a storm enters on the west coast that’s the latitude it leaves on the east coast.  Not sure where I heard that before but I’m guessing only if the flow is zonal or almost zonal. 

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this is part of what we should keep in mind for the 00z runs tonight. namconus_z500_vort_us_53.thumb.png.e78338ffcb9bea72f83901f1df85c5e5.png

Ideally, we want the TPV to be out of the way but if that cannot happen the next best thing is to get it positioned more favorably. Having the TPV positioned further west allows better heights out in front of the shortwave.

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13 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

this is part of what we should keep in mind for the 00z runs tonight. namconus_z500_vort_us_53.thumb.png.e78338ffcb9bea72f83901f1df85c5e5.png

Ideally, we want the TPV to be out of the way but if that cannot happen the next best thing is to get it positioned more favorably. Having the TPV positioned further west allows better heights out in front of the shortwave.

If we’re really gonna do this...the tpv is in a better spot on the NAM then the gfs even.  It’s south but west. Get that far enough west and it could end up pulling this north more. But that’s playing with fire (literally with our base state) so let’s not go there. The h5 is more amplified but it’s also a bit spread out with a southern and northern max. That’s not so good. I wouldn’t worry about the surface wave escaping that’s likely 84 hour NAM foolishness. Besides the primary will amplify in the TN valley in response to the upper feature then the secondary will form in response to that. Even if the initial wave escapes it might not matter. 

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