Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 This is an anecdotal observation...I’ve not done an unbiased study or anything to confirm, but over the last few years I’ve found the geps to be unhelpful with medium range synoptic details. Often it will trend one way then jump back the next. Often when it differs from the op (in situations where the cmc op is in line with other guidance) the geps caves to the op. It just did that with the last 2 storms actually. Showed something vastly different then the operational and caved to the operational. So when the geps shows something “weird” not in line with the op OR other guidance I’ve learned to just toss it. I noticed the same thing with the Brazilian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is an anecdotal observation...I’ve not done an unbiased study or anything to confirm, but over the last few years I’ve found the geps to be unhelpful with medium range synoptic details. Often it will trend one way then jump back the next. Often when it differs from the op (in situations where the cmc op is in line with other guidance) the geps caves to the op. It just did that with the last 2 storms actually. Showed something vastly different then the operational and caved to the operational. So when the geps shows something “weird” not in line with the op OR other guidance I’ve learned to just toss it. I noticed the same thing with the Brazilian But at least it looks good in a bikini 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is an anecdotal observation...I’ve not done an unbiased study or anything to confirm, but over the last few years I’ve found the geps to be unhelpful with medium range synoptic details. Often it will trend one way then jump back the next. Often when it differs from the op (in situations where the cmc op is in line with other guidance) the geps caves to the op. It just did that with the last 2 storms actually. Showed something vastly different then the operational and caved to the operational. So when the geps shows something “weird” not in line with the op OR other guidance I’ve learned to just toss it. I noticed the same thing with the Brazilian Whatever happens , last nights 00z gfs run was the best 20 minutes of the winter. 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Most important runs of the year eta: ninja’d by Ralph Wiggum To help keep me sane I’ll expect a step backwards with a 967 mb low leaving South Carolina.., but for real the solutions that show sub 980 mb lows are most likely wrong without the flow amplifiying along the east coast. Reality will most likely be a continued east moving quasi Souther slider at 990 to 997 mb leaving just south of Virginia Beach. Don’t they often say the latitude a storm enters on the west coast that’s the latitude it leaves on the east coast. Not sure where I heard that before but I’m guessing only if the flow is zonal or almost zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 For fun. NAM has the ULL pretty far north. I’ll take any good vibes I can get. Pretty healthy vort at 84. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Whatever happens , last nights 00z gfs run was the best 20 minutes of the winter. The dec 15 runs were incredible so no those runs were way better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: For fun. NAM has the ULL pretty far north. I’ll take any good vibes I can get. Pretty healthy vort at 84. Yet the slp is centered over Birmingham, Alabama and trucking ENE. But yeah, H5 looks ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 this is part of what we should keep in mind for the 00z runs tonight. Ideally, we want the TPV to be out of the way but if that cannot happen the next best thing is to get it positioned more favorably. Having the TPV positioned further west allows better heights out in front of the shortwave. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 My thoughts on the 84 hour NAM are that it’s the 84 hour Nam. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 13 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: this is part of what we should keep in mind for the 00z runs tonight. Ideally, we want the TPV to be out of the way but if that cannot happen the next best thing is to get it positioned more favorably. Having the TPV positioned further west allows better heights out in front of the shortwave. If we’re really gonna do this...the tpv is in a better spot on the NAM then the gfs even. It’s south but west. Get that far enough west and it could end up pulling this north more. But that’s playing with fire (literally with our base state) so let’s not go there. The h5 is more amplified but it’s also a bit spread out with a southern and northern max. That’s not so good. I wouldn’t worry about the surface wave escaping that’s likely 84 hour NAM foolishness. Besides the primary will amplify in the TN valley in response to the upper feature then the secondary will form in response to that. Even if the initial wave escapes it might not matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GFS is slower with higher heights ahead of the storm compared to 18Z. Also PV in canada is slower and weaker The high is back also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 TPV farther N on 0z gfs already evident at 78hrs vs 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Its early but the 00z gfs might be better than 18z. The tpv is more north and west and ull seems stronger 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Its early but the 00z gfs might be better than 18z. The tpv is more north and west and ull seems stronger Noted. Main vort a little less organized but looks farther N. Might offset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Primary further NW of 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Might be playing with fire this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 No way this misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Colder...snow at 105 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Very very nice run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Agreed, further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Snowing in DC Thursday morning. 994 over OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Ji should like this run...but probably too fast moving for his liking so maybe not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Mod-heavy through 111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Better this run. Colder. 984 L wrapped up off the VA Coast. We approve. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 WB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: No way this misses. I was going to say "bite thy tongue!" given how many times someone has said that too early and then *poof* it goes to hell...but just maybe we'll be OK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 If that tpv adjustment N is real, there should be continued improvement at the surface going forward I would think. Took a big jump with that feature. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Good run. Now if we can just nudge the snowfall max a little east 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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