psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Yep, I think it has hit every province in Canada over the last few days of model runs lol It’s stuck under the Rex block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Why 6” of wet snow would look a lot nicer (stick to everything) and last longer (thicker) 3” of powder sucks. Blows around and sublimates the first sunny day. IDK. I just like the look of cold smoke that blows off the rooftops. My preference is irrelevant I know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 thanks for that post @psuhoffman appreciate it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 eps still hanging around in that zone close enough to keep hope alive but not quite good enough to celebrate. There was some good on the 18z (more amplified wave) and some bad (more confluence to the NE and the wave was further south). The more amplified wave is numero uno though in factors we need. All the details don’t matter if that isn’t amplified. So I guess I’ll take 18z as a slight net positive even if results took a slight step back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, mappy said: thanks for that post @psuhoffman appreciate it! You’re very welcome. I’m cautiously optimistic. The setup is the best we’ve had. Just hope we didn’t chase this for 3 weeks (literally) only to have it fail to come together because of some discreet detail that’s not perfect. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 @psuhoffman how we looking down here man? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: @psuhoffman how we looking down here man? Dunno...you’re in a temp bind. If this amps up it likely tucks too tight for you. If it doesn’t it’s unlikely to crash the temps. You need a lucky band as the upper low passes and I can’t predict that this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Dunno...you’re in a temp bind. If this amps up it likely tucks too tight for you. If it doesn’t it’s unlikely to crash the temps. You need a lucky band as the upper low passes and I can’t predict that this far out. Sounds like same old problems lol. Thanks for the thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Surprised no one mentioned the 12z GEPS. Just looking at total precip on TT and it’s pretty bad. A step back from 0z imo. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Dunno...you’re in a temp bind. If this amps up it likely tucks too tight for you. If it doesn’t it’s unlikely to crash the temps. You need a lucky band as the upper low passes and I can’t predict that this far out. Feels the same way around Fredericksburg (but probably a little but here than in RIC) not sure what exactly to hire/root for. I understand the temp issues we face, just feels like as you’ve said, it’s going to have to align just right. Frustrating and fascinating at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Surprised no one mentioned the 12z GEPS. Just looking at total precip on TT and it’s pretty bad. A step back from 0z imo. Any thoughts? Maybe that’s why no one mentioned it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Surprised no one mentioned the 12z GEPS. Just looking at total precip on TT and it’s pretty bad. A step back from 0z imo. Any thoughts? It was a really weird solution...seemed like it focused totally on the upper low and never linked up with the STJ moisture at all...and its way different then all other guidance so I kind of tossed it as a weird run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Maybe that’s why no one mentioned itNothing matters till tonight's runs anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ji said: 13 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Maybe that’s why no one mentioned it Nothing matters till tonight's runs anyway The most important model suite of our lives! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 This is an anecdotal observation...I’ve not done an unbiased study or anything to confirm, but over the last few years I’ve found the geps to be unhelpful with medium range synoptic details. Often it will trend one way then jump back the next. Often when it differs from the op (in situations where the cmc op is in line with other guidance) the geps caves to the op. It just did that with the last 2 storms actually. Showed something vastly different then the operational and caved to the operational. So when the geps shows something “weird” not in line with the op OR other guidance I’ve learned to just toss it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 17 minutes ago, Ji said: 19 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Maybe that’s why no one mentioned it Nothing matters till tonight's runs anyway Most important runs of the year eta: ninja’d by Ralph Wiggum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 This is an anecdotal observation...I’ve not done an unbiased study or anything to confirm, but over the last few years I’ve found the geps to be unhelpful with medium range synoptic details. Often it will trend one way then jump back the next. Often when it differs from the op (in situations where the cmc op is in line with other guidance) the geps caves to the op. It just did that with the last 2 storms actually. Showed something vastly different then the operational and caved to the operational. So when the geps shows something “weird” not in line with the op OR other guidance I’ve learned to just toss it. I noticed the same thing with the Brazilian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is an anecdotal observation...I’ve not done an unbiased study or anything to confirm, but over the last few years I’ve found the geps to be unhelpful with medium range synoptic details. Often it will trend one way then jump back the next. Often when it differs from the op (in situations where the cmc op is in line with other guidance) the geps caves to the op. It just did that with the last 2 storms actually. Showed something vastly different then the operational and caved to the operational. So when the geps shows something “weird” not in line with the op OR other guidance I’ve learned to just toss it. I noticed the same thing with the Brazilian But at least it looks good in a bikini 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is an anecdotal observation...I’ve not done an unbiased study or anything to confirm, but over the last few years I’ve found the geps to be unhelpful with medium range synoptic details. Often it will trend one way then jump back the next. Often when it differs from the op (in situations where the cmc op is in line with other guidance) the geps caves to the op. It just did that with the last 2 storms actually. Showed something vastly different then the operational and caved to the operational. So when the geps shows something “weird” not in line with the op OR other guidance I’ve learned to just toss it. I noticed the same thing with the Brazilian Whatever happens , last nights 00z gfs run was the best 20 minutes of the winter. 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Most important runs of the year eta: ninja’d by Ralph Wiggum To help keep me sane I’ll expect a step backwards with a 967 mb low leaving South Carolina.., but for real the solutions that show sub 980 mb lows are most likely wrong without the flow amplifiying along the east coast. Reality will most likely be a continued east moving quasi Souther slider at 990 to 997 mb leaving just south of Virginia Beach. Don’t they often say the latitude a storm enters on the west coast that’s the latitude it leaves on the east coast. Not sure where I heard that before but I’m guessing only if the flow is zonal or almost zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 For fun. NAM has the ULL pretty far north. I’ll take any good vibes I can get. Pretty healthy vort at 84. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Whatever happens , last nights 00z gfs run was the best 20 minutes of the winter. The dec 15 runs were incredible so no those runs were way better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: For fun. NAM has the ULL pretty far north. I’ll take any good vibes I can get. Pretty healthy vort at 84. Yet the slp is centered over Birmingham, Alabama and trucking ENE. But yeah, H5 looks ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 this is part of what we should keep in mind for the 00z runs tonight. Ideally, we want the TPV to be out of the way but if that cannot happen the next best thing is to get it positioned more favorably. Having the TPV positioned further west allows better heights out in front of the shortwave. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 My thoughts on the 84 hour NAM are that it’s the 84 hour Nam. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 13 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: this is part of what we should keep in mind for the 00z runs tonight. Ideally, we want the TPV to be out of the way but if that cannot happen the next best thing is to get it positioned more favorably. Having the TPV positioned further west allows better heights out in front of the shortwave. If we’re really gonna do this...the tpv is in a better spot on the NAM then the gfs even. It’s south but west. Get that far enough west and it could end up pulling this north more. But that’s playing with fire (literally with our base state) so let’s not go there. The h5 is more amplified but it’s also a bit spread out with a southern and northern max. That’s not so good. I wouldn’t worry about the surface wave escaping that’s likely 84 hour NAM foolishness. Besides the primary will amplify in the TN valley in response to the upper feature then the secondary will form in response to that. Even if the initial wave escapes it might not matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GFS is slower with higher heights ahead of the storm compared to 18Z. Also PV in canada is slower and weaker The high is back also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 TPV farther N on 0z gfs already evident at 78hrs vs 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Its early but the 00z gfs might be better than 18z. The tpv is more north and west and ull seems stronger 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Its early but the 00z gfs might be better than 18z. The tpv is more north and west and ull seems stronger Noted. Main vort a little less organized but looks farther N. Might offset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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