Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Verbatim, surface is roasting in DC on the GFS so rain. I’m not really buying it but who knows Given that the para, cmc, and even euro are all colder...not sure we should buy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Isn't this similar to what the 12z Canadian did yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 H5 is weak sauce as it approaches the coast compared to 0z and 6z. Not gonna cut it with the thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Amped said: Phasing offshore this run. Doesn't seem to effect our snowfall much yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: H5 is weak sauce as it approaches the coast compared to 0z and 6z. Not gonna cut it with the thermals. Gfs is the only model that has an issue with thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Still time, but this is going the wrong way. The trend is your friend. And the the trend this season seems to be playing out with this one. I'll give it a few more days, but I'm already out on this pity Monday event. If this thing fails, I think I'll be taking a break. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Still time, but this is going the wrong way. The trend is your friend. And the the trend this season seems to be playing out with this one. I'll give it a few more days, but I'm already out on this pity Monday event. If this thing fails, I think I'll be taking a break. Thanks for the heads up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 22 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Absolute disaster. Man this winter is tough business. The last 2 winters actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GEFS is going to hold. Slightly stronger MSLP than the past run, 850s and 0s slightly cooler as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Gfs is the only model that has an issue with thermals. That is what we are discussing here currently, right? It is also the model that has been the most amped, with a closer to the coast track. Big upside, but also warmer, esp at the beginning of the event. Its a fine line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS is going to hold. Slightly stronger MSLP than the past run, 850s and 0s slightly cooler as well. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: One could (successfully) argue that it is cutting back on QPF run-to-run. Not that most of us bought into the crazy runs, but that solution seems to be getting more and more unlikely. Suppressed, I guess. 18z 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: One could (successfully) argue that it is cutting back on QPF run-to-run. Not that most of us bought into the crazy runs, but that solution seems to be getting more and more unlikely. I mean that GEFS run looks pretty darn good to me. For a regular snow event. Nothing historic or even major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Also trending to be a shorter duration storm. Looks like 12 hours. Snow shuts off before noon on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: One could (successfully) argue that it is cutting back on QPF run-to-run. Not that most of us bought into the crazy runs, but that solution seems to be getting more and more unlikely. Suppressed, I guess. I think part of it is losing the super amped lows that actually cut through our area. Hope the bleeding SE stops, but for now we can handle it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: One could (successfully) argue that it is cutting back on QPF run-to-run. Not that most of us bought into the crazy runs, but that solution seems to be getting more and more unlikely. Suppressed, I guess. 18z 12z Yeah the mean still looks good. Not quite the monster it was a couple runs ago, but I don't think anyone expected that to continue. A tad more suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Also trending to be a shorter duration storm. Looks like 12 hours. Snow shuts off before noon on Thursday. Of course we did lose the balloon data that we had on the better runs. I am half kidding but doesn’t the weenie hand book cover this. Don’t see what you want and blame it on bad data/lack of data/sunspots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Yeah the mean still looks good. Not quite the monster it was a couple runs ago, but I don't think anyone expected that to continue. A tad more suppressed. Are you sure nobody expected it to continue? 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The gfs is spinning through 30 hour corrections every 4 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Are you sure nobody expected it to continue? Dude I was thinking the exact same thing, lolol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Dude I was thinking the exact same thing, lolol I did, or at least hoped. I'm chasing a big one. Pretty clear we are heading away from that. Precip slipping farther south, also looks like either less precip overall or the storm is just pulling away quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I did, or at least hoped. I'm chasing a big one. Pretty clear we are heading away from that. Precip slipping farther south, also looks like either less precip overall or the storm is just pulling away quicker. I understand the desire for big snow...but ya gotta try not to get sucked in by one run that shows a monster result...I try not to let my mind go to "big" until there's consistent evidence that such an outcome is firmly on the table. Otherwise you risk not enjoying what measurable snow you do get (like if you're looking 12" and we get 6"...we can still enjoy that!) I think a more reasonable bar is WSW level...that's been my bar this year--since that's been so hard to get the last few years, lol But I will admit...part of me is hoping February delivers a bigger one somehow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I understand the desire for big snow...but ya gotta try not to get sucked in by one run that shows a monster result...I try not to let my mind go to "big" until there's consistent evidence that such an outcome is firmly on the table. Otherwise you risk not enjoying what measurable snow you do get (like if you're looking 12" and we get 6"...we can still enjoy that!) I think a more reasonable bar is WSW level...that's been my bar this year--since that's been so hard to get the last few years, lol But I will admit...part of me is hoping February delivers a bigger one somehow... Yeah, I am sure if it snows hard and we get 6-10 or something, I'll be happy with that, even if the duration is quite short. It would be my best storm since 2016. Maybe I'm just spoiled from that hot stretch we were on, but man, it seems like forever since we got crushed and I'm like a drug addict needing a fix. I just got pretty optimistic between PSU saying this was the period he was targeting for a big one and then seeing the GFS with a few runs of a monster storm and the CMC also joining the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 the rest of the GFS run is good though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, nj2va said: The DC winter visualized Heat Island Effect / Global Warming / Climate Change rule our winters now welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GFVv16 (parallel) Looking better with time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: GFVv16 (parallel) Looking better with time. It looks like the 50/50 influence is trending weaker, but that tpv lobe has obviously pressed SE. idk how much it plays a role though since the main ULL is closed off and cut off a bit anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Per shams 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Per shams More fun with letter grades ECM A UKM B GFSv16 C+ CMC C+ JMA C+ GFS C (barely) FNO D- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 13 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: More fun with letter grades ECM A UKM B GFSv16 C+ CMC C+ JMA C+ GFS C (barely) FNO D- I guess euro is still king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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