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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
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Still time, but this is going the wrong way. The trend is your friend. And the the trend this season seems to be playing out with this one. I'll give it a few more days, but I'm already out on this pity Monday event. If this thing fails, I think I'll be taking a break.

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Still time, but this is going the wrong way. The trend is your friend. And the the trend this season seems to be playing out with this one. I'll give it a few more days, but I'm already out on this pity Monday event. If this thing fails, I think I'll be taking a break.

Thanks for the heads up 

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4 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Gfs is the only model that has an issue with thermals. 

That is what we are discussing here currently, right? It is also the model that has been the most amped, with a closer to the coast track. Big upside, but also warmer, esp at the beginning of the event. Its a fine line.

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

One could (successfully) argue that it is cutting back on QPF run-to-run. Not that most of us bought into the crazy runs, but that solution seems to be getting more and more unlikely.

I mean that GEFS run looks pretty darn good to me.  For a regular snow event.  Nothing historic or even major.  

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

One could (successfully) argue that it is cutting back on QPF run-to-run. Not that most of us bought into the crazy runs, but that solution seems to be getting more and more unlikely. Suppressed, I guess.

I think part of it is losing the super amped lows that actually cut through our area. Hope the bleeding SE stops, but for now we can handle it

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_fh114_trend.thumb.gif.4876d6075ec6c7ee812434672752869f.gif

 

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

One could (successfully) argue that it is cutting back on QPF run-to-run. Not that most of us bought into the crazy runs, but that solution seems to be getting more and more unlikely. Suppressed, I guess.

18z

 

12z

 

Yeah the mean still  looks good.  Not quite the monster it was a couple runs ago, but I don't think anyone expected that to continue. A tad more suppressed.

1611846000-GrDkk95tbGo.png

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2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Also trending to be a shorter duration storm. Looks like 12 hours. Snow shuts off before noon on Thursday. 

Of course we did lose the balloon data that we had on the better runs.  I am half kidding but doesn’t the weenie hand book cover this.  Don’t see what you want and blame it on bad data/lack of data/sunspots.  

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dude I was thinking the exact same thing, lolol

I did, or at least hoped. I'm chasing a big one. Pretty clear we are heading away from that. Precip slipping farther south, also looks like either less precip overall or the storm is just pulling away quicker.

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13 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I did, or at least hoped. I'm chasing a big one. Pretty clear we are heading away from that. Precip slipping farther south, also looks like either less precip overall or the storm is just pulling away quicker.

I understand the desire for big snow...but ya gotta try not to get sucked in by one run that shows a monster result...I try not to let my mind go to "big" until there's consistent evidence that such an outcome is firmly on the table. Otherwise you risk not enjoying what measurable snow you do get (like if you're looking 12" and we get 6"...we can still enjoy that!) I think a more reasonable bar is WSW level...that's been my bar this year--since that's been so hard to get the last few years, lol But I will admit...part of me is hoping February delivers a bigger one somehow...

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I understand the desire for big snow...but ya gotta try not to get sucked in by one run that shows a monster result...I try not to let my mind go to "big" until there's consistent evidence that such an outcome is firmly on the table. Otherwise you risk not enjoying what measurable snow you do get (like if you're looking 12" and we get 6"...we can still enjoy that!) I think a more reasonable bar is WSW level...that's been my bar this year--since that's been so hard to get the last few years, lol But I will admit...part of me is hoping February delivers a bigger one somehow...

Yeah, I am sure if it snows hard and we get 6-10 or something, I'll be happy with that, even if the duration is quite short. It would be my best storm since 2016. Maybe I'm just spoiled from that hot stretch we were on, but man, it seems like forever since we got crushed and I'm like a drug addict needing a fix.

I just got pretty optimistic between PSU saying this was the period he was targeting for a big one and then seeing the GFS with a few runs of a monster storm and the CMC also joining the party.

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