Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 meh...where is the precip. it caved to the euro. Will be a disaster by 00z(actually already is) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Nevermind. Saw the thermals. Nice storm, but thermals are irritating me. We can work with it for now tho. Still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Ignoring how weird the surface panels are (GFS being GFS with thermals hopefully??).. the QPF isn't bad. Not a 3" QPF bomb like 0z and 6z but yeah more believable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The DC winter visualized 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Para ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: The DC winter visualized Also sums it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: Para ftw! Pics or it didn’t happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: Pics or it didn’t happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Gets down to 957mb 500 miles east of Atlantic City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: The DC winter visualized Absolute disaster. Man this winter is tough business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: The DC winter visualized Ji moved east...whew. this is looking like a Miller B jump almost with that shadow gap or is it because of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Para is probably more realistic with snow/precip distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Ji moved east...whew. this is looking like a Miller B jump almost with that shadow gap or is it because of rain? It’s because of wonky ass surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 If the para is becoming the new gfs in a month, I am putting my stock in it. This is just Thursday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: If the para is becoming the new gfs in a month, I am putting my stock in it. Unless it doesn't show what you want, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Ji moved east...whew. this is looking like a Miller B jump almost with that shadow gap or is it because of rain? Verbatim, surface is roasting in DC on the GFS so rain. I’m not really buying it but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Verbatim, surface is roasting in DC on the GFS so rain. I’m not really buying it but who knows Given that the para, cmc, and even euro are all colder...not sure we should buy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Isn't this similar to what the 12z Canadian did yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 H5 is weak sauce as it approaches the coast compared to 0z and 6z. Not gonna cut it with the thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Amped said: Phasing offshore this run. Doesn't seem to effect our snowfall much yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: H5 is weak sauce as it approaches the coast compared to 0z and 6z. Not gonna cut it with the thermals. Gfs is the only model that has an issue with thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Still time, but this is going the wrong way. The trend is your friend. And the the trend this season seems to be playing out with this one. I'll give it a few more days, but I'm already out on this pity Monday event. If this thing fails, I think I'll be taking a break. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Still time, but this is going the wrong way. The trend is your friend. And the the trend this season seems to be playing out with this one. I'll give it a few more days, but I'm already out on this pity Monday event. If this thing fails, I think I'll be taking a break. Thanks for the heads up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 22 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Absolute disaster. Man this winter is tough business. The last 2 winters actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GEFS is going to hold. Slightly stronger MSLP than the past run, 850s and 0s slightly cooler as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Gfs is the only model that has an issue with thermals. That is what we are discussing here currently, right? It is also the model that has been the most amped, with a closer to the coast track. Big upside, but also warmer, esp at the beginning of the event. Its a fine line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS is going to hold. Slightly stronger MSLP than the past run, 850s and 0s slightly cooler as well. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: One could (successfully) argue that it is cutting back on QPF run-to-run. Not that most of us bought into the crazy runs, but that solution seems to be getting more and more unlikely. Suppressed, I guess. 18z 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: One could (successfully) argue that it is cutting back on QPF run-to-run. Not that most of us bought into the crazy runs, but that solution seems to be getting more and more unlikely. I mean that GEFS run looks pretty darn good to me. For a regular snow event. Nothing historic or even major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Also trending to be a shorter duration storm. Looks like 12 hours. Snow shuts off before noon on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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