Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ji said: adrian woj does weather model verifications too? We need a wx woj bomb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 13 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 It's either going to snow or it won't ...that's my expert analysis 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Icon still wants no part of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: Icon still wants no part of this storm. I'm telling you when it's complex the dumbest model wins 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Solution Man said: Got this from my forum and apologies if this has been posted BLUF, use current model data with caution.... "All six weather balloon launch sites along the West Coast and northwest Mexico did not report data this morning, for various reasons. Thus, the major system that is going to affect the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday night into Tuesday has limited data for forecasters and models to work with. Ugh. Use all morning and afternoon models with even more caution." From Gilbert Sebenste Lol well that would in effect ruin the entire run as storms strength movement and baroclinic zones affect each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 LWX is favoring suppression in their afd fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Webb still working tirelessly to make this a NC storm...I think I agree I'm going to get my car washed and detailed Wednesday so I can drive with the top down and enjoy the sun and warm arctic temps because we all know why the temps are warm right!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: LWX is favoring suppression in their afd fwiw. Go with persistence. Mount Holly has favored this all along, but sort of caved to the models the last couple days. I never really bought into the more amped/warmer looks. But who am I to oppose the preponderance of model guidance lol. Problem is even suppressed/colder = weak pos, so no one wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Webb still working tirelessly to make this a NC storm...I think I agree I'm going to get my car washed and detailed Wednesday so I can drive with the top down and enjoy the sun and warm arctic temps because we all know why the temps are warm right!!Webb has been wrong on everything since November Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Looks like GFS is still gonna play ball, we’ll have to see what thermals are like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Looks like GFS is still gonna play ball, we’ll have to see what thermals are like Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 that feature in Canada is looking stronger through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Fairly similar run to 12z lol. We still manage to have sucky surface temps. Some snow but some rain too haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 meh...where is the precip. it caved to the euro. Will be a disaster by 00z(actually already is) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Nevermind. Saw the thermals. Nice storm, but thermals are irritating me. We can work with it for now tho. Still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Ignoring how weird the surface panels are (GFS being GFS with thermals hopefully??).. the QPF isn't bad. Not a 3" QPF bomb like 0z and 6z but yeah more believable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The DC winter visualized 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Para ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: The DC winter visualized Also sums it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: Para ftw! Pics or it didn’t happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: Pics or it didn’t happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Gets down to 957mb 500 miles east of Atlantic City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: The DC winter visualized Absolute disaster. Man this winter is tough business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: The DC winter visualized Ji moved east...whew. this is looking like a Miller B jump almost with that shadow gap or is it because of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Para is probably more realistic with snow/precip distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Ji moved east...whew. this is looking like a Miller B jump almost with that shadow gap or is it because of rain? It’s because of wonky ass surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 If the para is becoming the new gfs in a month, I am putting my stock in it. This is just Thursday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: If the para is becoming the new gfs in a month, I am putting my stock in it. Unless it doesn't show what you want, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Ji moved east...whew. this is looking like a Miller B jump almost with that shadow gap or is it because of rain? Verbatim, surface is roasting in DC on the GFS so rain. I’m not really buying it but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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