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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
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EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 13 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2

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1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

 

 

Got this from my forum and apologies if this has been posted

BLUF, use current model data with caution....

"All six weather balloon launch sites along the West Coast and northwest Mexico did not report data this morning, for various reasons. Thus, the major system that is going to affect the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday night into Tuesday has limited data for forecasters and models to work with.

Ugh. Use all morning and afternoon models with even more caution."

From Gilbert Sebenste

Lol well that would in effect ruin the entire run as storms strength movement and baroclinic zones affect each other. 

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13 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

LWX is favoring suppression in their afd fwiw.

Go with persistence. Mount Holly has favored this all along, but sort of caved to the models the last couple days.

I never really bought into the more amped/warmer looks. But who am I to oppose the preponderance of model guidance lol. Problem is even suppressed/colder = weak pos, so no one wins.

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Webb still working tirelessly to make this a NC storm...I think I agree I'm going to get my car washed and detailed Wednesday so I can drive with the top down and enjoy the sun and warm arctic temps because we all know why the temps are warm right!!
Webb has been wrong on everything since November

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

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