Anyweather Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, Ji said: So the euro gives me more snow than 12z gfs Is that a question or statement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, csnavywx said: Hard not to be happy with that run. Way better than 00Z and trending the right way. Sure it is....if you’re one of the weenies who just looks at clown snow maps verbatim lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 12z EPS also appears to have a stronger system than 6z. QPF is improved as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: If this adjust back south I wouldn't be surprised, but if it also did its usual NW jog inside 72 that wouldn't surprise me either. I think this whole setup is mainly predicated off of what strength and timing of confluence we'll have as the SW digs. Too much confluence and track is south but temp layers are better. Too little and we get ptype issues. Very tedious setup I was thinking the same exact thing today. I guess its a combo of warming background state and the main driver this season (Nina) leading to PAC air intrusion to our cold source. That's my simpleton guess I suppose Doesn't that H5 track seem a little flat to you? I would think we'd want the base of that trough rounding a little quicker and titling negative a little earlier to allow for dynamics to take over given our moderate airmass. I know its a tight rope -- if it tilts negative too quickly we have track issues. But I feel like we need excellent dynamics to deal with our ptype issues. I fear if this is not geared up we all fail, vs. rain to dynamic rates with good back side ccb. I agree. Seems too flat. Want it to dig and go negative and close off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Got this from my forum and apologies if this has been posted BLUF, use current model data with caution.... "All six weather balloon launch sites along the West Coast and northwest Mexico did not report data this morning, for various reasons. Thus, the major system that is going to affect the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday night into Tuesday has limited data for forecasters and models to work with. Ugh. Use all morning and afternoon models with even more caution." From Gilbert Sebenste 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 18 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Got this from my forum and apologies if this has been posted BLUF, use current model data with caution.... "All six weather balloon launch sites along the West Coast and northwest Mexico did not report data this morning, for various reasons. Thus, the major system that is going to affect the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday night into Tuesday has limited data for forecasters and models to work with. Ugh. Use all morning and afternoon models with even more caution." From Gilbert Sebenste So considering that does that mean the Euro/CMC has a better handle on things? Or do all models use this data? Curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: So considering that does that mean the Euro/CMC has a better handle on things? Or do all models use this data? Curious Wish I could answer, but my logical mind says they would use same data points....but that’s me pontificating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Solution Man said: Wish I could answer, but my logical mind says they would use same data points....but that’s me pontificating. Makes sense but someone mentioned earlier Euro uses Chinese and Russian data that US models do not. Everyday you learn something here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Makes sense but someone mentioned earlier Euro uses Chinese and Russian data that US models do not. Everyday you learn something here. True dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 It’s funny. Back on January 24, 2000 we had the surprise snowstorm—- it was supposed to be south—a fish storm. And it wasn’t until after 9:00 pm—-hours before the onslaught that the NWS issued the last minute warnings. This storm has neither the L or the coastal power, however, the waffling that it’s creating is reminiscent of that storm. There just seems to be similar intangibles (VA Beach, suppression, maybe 1-2–probably rain/freezing etc...). Shall be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Hurricanegiants said: It’s funny. Back on January 24, 2000 we had the surprise snowstorm—- it was supposed to be south—a fish storm. And it wasn’t until after 9:00 pm—-hours before the onslaught that the NWS issued the last minute warnings. This storm has neither the L or the coastal power, however, the waffling that it’s creating is reminiscent of that storm. There just seems to be similar intangibles (VA Beach, suppression, maybe 1-2–probably rain/freezing etc...). Shall be interesting. I don’t think that kind of event can happen again. While everyone complains about the models I am not sure that kind of last minute change could happen. Now from 12 inches to nada sure... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: It’s funny. Back on January 24, 2000 we had the surprise snowstorm—- it was supposed to be south—a fish storm. And it wasn’t until after 9:00 pm—-hours before the onslaught that the NWS issued the last minute warnings. This storm has neither the L or the coastal power, however, the waffling that it’s creating is reminiscent of that storm. There just seems to be similar intangibles (VA Beach, suppression, maybe 1-2–probably rain/freezing etc...). Shall be interesting. blizzard of 66 was the very same way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Solution Man said: Got this from my forum and apologies if this has been posted BLUF, use current model data with caution.... "All six weather balloon launch sites along the West Coast and northwest Mexico did not report data this morning, for various reasons. Thus, the major system that is going to affect the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday night into Tuesday has limited data for forecasters and models to work with. Ugh. Use all morning and afternoon models with even more caution." From Gilbert Sebenste So it doesn’t have all that much effect on the threat window that’s 5-6 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: So it doesn’t have all that much effect on the threat window that’s 5-6 days away. Just passing it on, as it does affect my area in the central plains within a 2 day threat. I am a transplant from the mid Atlantic forum, and my heart is always with this forum. I pass relevant info. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I think recent verification scores (per source, woj) have the 12z gfs at day 5 behind the JMA FYI. Sad. Once again doesn’t mean the gfs is wrong. I like how it’s trending for you guys, up here in Philly best chance is for the ULL to spit out some flakes, but I’m rooting for you guys cause I’d gladly chase a strong coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: I think recent verification scores (per source, woj) have the 12z gfs behind the JMA FYI. Sad. Once again doesn’t mean the gfs is wrong. I like how it’s trending for you guys, up here in Philly best chance is for the ULL to spit out some flakes, but I’m rooting for you guys cause I’d gladly chase a strong coastal. adrian woj does weather model verifications too? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ji said: adrian woj does weather model verifications too? We need a wx woj bomb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 13 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 It's either going to snow or it won't ...that's my expert analysis 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Icon still wants no part of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: Icon still wants no part of this storm. I'm telling you when it's complex the dumbest model wins 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Solution Man said: Got this from my forum and apologies if this has been posted BLUF, use current model data with caution.... "All six weather balloon launch sites along the West Coast and northwest Mexico did not report data this morning, for various reasons. Thus, the major system that is going to affect the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday night into Tuesday has limited data for forecasters and models to work with. Ugh. Use all morning and afternoon models with even more caution." From Gilbert Sebenste Lol well that would in effect ruin the entire run as storms strength movement and baroclinic zones affect each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 LWX is favoring suppression in their afd fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Webb still working tirelessly to make this a NC storm...I think I agree I'm going to get my car washed and detailed Wednesday so I can drive with the top down and enjoy the sun and warm arctic temps because we all know why the temps are warm right!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: LWX is favoring suppression in their afd fwiw. Go with persistence. Mount Holly has favored this all along, but sort of caved to the models the last couple days. I never really bought into the more amped/warmer looks. But who am I to oppose the preponderance of model guidance lol. Problem is even suppressed/colder = weak pos, so no one wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Webb still working tirelessly to make this a NC storm...I think I agree I'm going to get my car washed and detailed Wednesday so I can drive with the top down and enjoy the sun and warm arctic temps because we all know why the temps are warm right!!Webb has been wrong on everything since November Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Looks like GFS is still gonna play ball, we’ll have to see what thermals are like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Looks like GFS is still gonna play ball, we’ll have to see what thermals are like Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 that feature in Canada is looking stronger through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Fairly similar run to 12z lol. We still manage to have sucky surface temps. Some snow but some rain too haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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