LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Slower sw...made all the difference it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Took a few steps to the GFS. Obviously not as wound up near the coast but a nice middle ground on this run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Light event on the euro but a step in the right direction. Would absolutely take it given how everything else has been this year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Haven’t looked at the surface yet but the euro trended significantly stronger with the h5 feature this run. Not all the way to the gfs but a step that way. I’m still out....until the ICON gets on board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 So the Euro kinda caved to the GFS then. At least took some significant steps toward it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Does anyone know if the euro took a step toward the gfs in the right direction? Haven't seen it posted here yet. Ty 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Gfs went towards euro and euro went towards gfs. This looks like a max potential 4-8 event with 12 in leesburg 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The Euro doesnt usually do big jumps run to run. This was a pretty significant step towards the GFS this run. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Now we just need Ji and Osfan to come in here and say they’re not interested in a light event - as if we live in Bangor, ME and don’t blink as less than a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Gfs went towards euro and euro went towards gfs. This looks like a max potential 4-8 event with 12 in leesburg They both went towards the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Gfs went towards euro and euro went towards gfs. This looks like a max potential 4-8 event with 12 in leesburg I mean, the max potential remains 2-3 feet. And still a low end of 0. We are still 5 days out. But at least Euro caved and agreed there is a storm. GFS win from where I sit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: They both went towards the CMC? Yeah, hopefully meeting in the middle with a widespread moderate snow event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Does anyone know if the euro took a step toward the gfs in the right direction? Haven't seen it posted here yet. Ty Everyone wants to be first. But there can be only one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 WB Euro 12Z v OZ (second picture is latest) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is the main difference I see with gfs. That feature is much weaker and not affecting the flow as much on the gfs ETA: that feature washes out in future frames and isn’t much of an impact down the line. That is the ULL from the first storm and it did not treat our high kindly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Nice bump on QPF vs. 00Z. Still not in the same ballpark as GFS, though. EURO 12Z: EURO 00Z: GFS 12Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The h5 track is perfect. And i would say it got half way to what we need wrt amplitude to get a nice snow event from this. The h5 dives from Chicago through Ohio and across VA it just doesn’t close off in time for us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I believe a congratulations is in order for a good portion of VA. Been a long time coming, you guys deserve this jackpot. And a congrats to DC for their first warning criteria in a long time. Im out up this way, but will track with you guys (if permitted) to share in enjoying your excitement. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 It is pretty good step towards the GFS. Below is a comparison of 00Z 500h and the 12Z. Note how much more ridging takes place ahead of the vort and associated trof and what has happened over Maine. The latter has relaxed allowing more room for our approaching trough. If it relaxes a tad more we might get development a little farther west and more precipitation. There is that pesky impulse ahead of the trof, if it were to minor out quicker that would also help. 19 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 So the euro gives me more snow than 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, usedtobe said: It is pretty good step towards the GFS. Below is a comparison of 00Z 500h and the 12Z. Note how much more ridging takes place ahead of the vort and associated trof and what has happened over Maine. The latter has relaxed allowing more room for our approaching trough. If it relaxes a tad more we might get development a little farther west and more precipitation. There is that pesky impulse ahead of the trof, if it were to minor out quicker that would also help. This is the post i was waiting for. It’s gonna snow y’all. 10 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: This is the post i was waiting for. It’s gonna snow a whole lot y’all. Fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I guess the GEFS might end up right for this one. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: My home forum is now sad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This is the post i was waiting for. It’s gonna snow y’all. Really the only post we need, tbh. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB Can snow maps 12Z v 0z, again going wrong direction. If this adjust back south I wouldn't be surprised, but if it also did its usual NW jog inside 72 that wouldn't surprise me either. I think this whole setup is mainly predicated off of what strength and timing of confluence we'll have as the SW digs. Too much confluence and track is south but temp layers are better. Too little and we get ptype issues. Very tedious setup 43 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I know I’m late to this as we wait in the euro, but that precip shield, that wind direction, that low location, the date, and then you drop that it is 37/36 at DCA. Unreal. I was thinking the same exact thing today. I guess its a combo of warming background state and the main driver this season (Nina) leading to PAC air intrusion to our cold source. That's my simpleton guess I suppose 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The h5 track is perfect. And i would say it got half way to what we need wrt amplitude to get a nice snow event from this. The h5 dives from Chicago through Ohio and across VA it just doesn’t close off in time for us. Doesn't that H5 track seem a little flat to you? I would think we'd want the base of that trough rounding a little quicker and titling negative a little earlier to allow for dynamics to take over given our moderate airmass. I know its a tight rope -- if it tilts negative too quickly we have track issues. But I feel like we need excellent dynamics to deal with our ptype issues. I fear if this is not geared up we all fail, vs. rain to dynamic rates with good back side ccb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: If this adjust back south I wouldn't be surprised, but if it also did its usual NW jog inside 72 that wouldn't surprise me either. I think this whole setup is mainly predicated off of what strength and timing of confluence we'll have as the SW digs. Too much confluence and track is south but temp layers are better. Too little and we get ptype issues. Very tedious setup I was thinking the same exact thing today. I guess its a combo of warming background state and the main driver this season (Nina) leading to PAC air intrusion to our cold source. That's my simpleton guess I suppose Doesn't that H5 track seem a little flat to you? I would think we'd want the base of that trough rounding a little quicker and titling negative a little earlier to allow for dynamics to take over given our moderate airmass. I know its a tight rope -- if it tilts negative too quickly we have track issues. But I feel like we need excellent dynamics to deal with our ptype issues. I fear if this is not geared up we all fail, vs. rain to dynamic rates with good back side ccb. Yes but compare it to previous runs it was getting there. I don’t think there is much chance it goes negative given the flow in the Atlantic but we need it to close off sooner. It happens a little too late this run but way way closer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: I guess the GEFS might end up right for this one. Enjoy! Couldn't stay away, could ya? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes but compare it to previous runs it was getting there. I don’t think there is much chance it goes negative given the flow in the Atlantic but we need it to close off sooner. It happens a little too late this run but way way closer. Hard not to be happy with that run. Way better than 00Z and trending the right way. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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