SnowLover22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: At 72...better dig in the sw and slower to eject on the euro. It’s minor but noticeable also the TPV up in Canada is in a better location vs 12z gfs. Should be less suppressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Para is a complete beatdown out here. Nasty ice storm followed by a pummeling on Thursday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowLover22 said: also the PV up in Canada is in a better location vs 12z gfs. Should be less suppressive. I don’t think that feature has much effect. The heights in front are slightly lower but it’s very minor differences. But I don’t see much improvement from last run either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I know I’m late to this as we wait in the euro, but that precip shield, that wind direction, that low location, the date, and then you drop that it is 37/36 at DCA. Unreal. I don't want to discount the lack of low-level cold air, and I suppose that struggling to cool off at the surface even with a really nice synoptic setup is possible, but the GFS is known for poor handling of thermal profiles in winter events, and this forecast sounding looks really goofy to me: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I know I’m late to this as we wait in the euro, but that precip shield, that wind direction, that low location, the date, and then you drop that it is 37/36 at DCA. Unreal. It is -- though drawing this up through BUFKIT reveals that the freezing level is down to 1700' by this point with just 25 J/kg of positive energy left. Definitely some BL issues on the front side, but not insurmountable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 thoughts on euro through 96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I don’t think that feature has much effect. The heights in front are slightly lower but it’s very minor differences. But I don’t see much improvement from last run either. Looks like better heights at 84. Slower sw out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This is the main difference I see with gfs. That feature is much weaker and not affecting the flow as much on the gfs ETA: that feature washes out in future frames and isn’t much of an impact down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Looks deeper to me at 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 It’s a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 EURO 4 am Th much better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I don’t know, Euro is looking better to me. Snowing in DC Thursday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Central va with a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Haven’t looked at the surface yet but the euro trended significantly stronger with the h5 feature this run. Not all the way to the gfs but a step that way. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Slower sw...made all the difference it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Took a few steps to the GFS. Obviously not as wound up near the coast but a nice middle ground on this run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Light event on the euro but a step in the right direction. Would absolutely take it given how everything else has been this year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Haven’t looked at the surface yet but the euro trended significantly stronger with the h5 feature this run. Not all the way to the gfs but a step that way. I’m still out....until the ICON gets on board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 So the Euro kinda caved to the GFS then. At least took some significant steps toward it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Does anyone know if the euro took a step toward the gfs in the right direction? Haven't seen it posted here yet. Ty 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Gfs went towards euro and euro went towards gfs. This looks like a max potential 4-8 event with 12 in leesburg 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The Euro doesnt usually do big jumps run to run. This was a pretty significant step towards the GFS this run. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Now we just need Ji and Osfan to come in here and say they’re not interested in a light event - as if we live in Bangor, ME and don’t blink as less than a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Gfs went towards euro and euro went towards gfs. This looks like a max potential 4-8 event with 12 in leesburg They both went towards the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Gfs went towards euro and euro went towards gfs. This looks like a max potential 4-8 event with 12 in leesburg I mean, the max potential remains 2-3 feet. And still a low end of 0. We are still 5 days out. But at least Euro caved and agreed there is a storm. GFS win from where I sit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: They both went towards the CMC? Yeah, hopefully meeting in the middle with a widespread moderate snow event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Does anyone know if the euro took a step toward the gfs in the right direction? Haven't seen it posted here yet. Ty Everyone wants to be first. But there can be only one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 WB Euro 12Z v OZ (second picture is latest) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is the main difference I see with gfs. That feature is much weaker and not affecting the flow as much on the gfs ETA: that feature washes out in future frames and isn’t much of an impact down the line. That is the ULL from the first storm and it did not treat our high kindly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Nice bump on QPF vs. 00Z. Still not in the same ballpark as GFS, though. EURO 12Z: EURO 00Z: GFS 12Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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