Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
 Share

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I know I’m late to this as we wait in the euro, but  that precip shield, that wind direction, that low location, the date, and then you drop that it is 37/36 at DCA.  Unreal.

 

              I don't want to discount the lack of low-level cold air, and I suppose that struggling to cool off at the surface even with a really nice synoptic setup is possible, but the GFS is known for poor handling of thermal profiles in winter events, and this forecast sounding looks really goofy to me:

451507988_ScreenShot2021-01-23at1_14_34PM.thumb.png.ebe65b5a6db515d893f9069c5f1947af.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I know I’m late to this as we wait in the euro, but  that precip shield, that wind direction, that low location, the date, and then you drop that it is 37/36 at DCA.  Unreal.

22F93713-11CC-4476-90FC-5176CC9E2413.thumb.jpeg.5117f94f49967b9540d2ef5ccbcdae24.jpeg

It is -- though drawing this up through BUFKIT reveals that the freezing level is down to 1700' by this point with just 25 J/kg of positive energy left. Definitely some BL issues on the front side, but not insurmountable.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think that feature has much effect. The heights in front are slightly lower but it’s very minor differences. But I don’t see much improvement from last run either. 

Looks like better heights at 84.  Slower sw out west.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is the main difference I see with gfs. That feature is much weaker and not affecting the flow as much on the gfs 

0C62714A-C4B2-46EC-9E1D-9A5CE8B45A1A.thumb.jpeg.969b5b7d53626f22322e833b4839d182.jpeg

ETA: that feature washes out in future frames and isn’t much of an impact down the line. 

That is the ULL from the first storm and it did not treat our high kindly.

 

7OVX4fx.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...