BristowWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 As depicted in GFS 2m temps most of us are like 2-3 degrees from epic event. 850s are good. Again another reason not to fret that run. And it’s the coldest week of the winter climo wise. Or close. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Can 7 and 10 am ...less intense south of 0Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: Can 7 and 10 am ...less intense south of 0Z Still looks good to me. Where do I sign? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 WB Can snow maps 12Z v 0z, again going wrong direction. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 UKMET has a storm now. Much closer to the GFS/Para/GEM camps. Still a fragile setup ofc, but marked improvement. The GEM being weaker shouldn't be surprising considering how amped and NW it was compared to its own ensembles last night. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This euro love is misplaced. Not that I trust the gfs because I think that model is off its rocker. It's a very hard habit to break. Euro is really not that much better than the GFS now. The Euro caves all the time now and makes wild swings between runs too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, csnavywx said: UKMET has a storm now. Much closer to the GFS/Para/GEM camps. Still a fragile setup ofc, but marked improvement. The GEM being weaker shouldn't be surprising considering how amped and NW it was compared to its own ensembles last night. Hopefully we can meet in the middle of where the GFS and Euro were yesterday, which gives the whole area a respectable all-snow event. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The Euro will always be king in my heart. 15 years of tracking weather and it has usually been more right than the other models. Fond memories of how it was the only one to predict the recurve of that hurricane several years ago and all the models caved to it at the end. It’s hard to accept a world where it caves to the GFS. So dear Euro-please show us a 20 inch area wide event at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hopefully we can meet in the middle of where the GFS and Euro were yesterday, which gives the whole area a respectable all-snow event. Even the coastal areas can get in on the action with a low that pulls away as it starts to occlude rather than tracking up the coast. Allows the BL above the near-surface layer to cool off and let diabatic cooling do its work. Sun angle not an issue right now either (unlike a March setup). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: The Euro will always be king in my heart. 15 years of tracking weather and it has usually been more right than the other models. Fond memories of how it was the only one to predict the recurve of that hurricane several years ago and all the models caved to it at the end. It’s hard to accept a world where it caves to the GFS. So dear Euro-please show us a 20 inch area wide event at 12z 10 inch area wide...you meant 10...let’s not upset the old chap before show time. Tally ho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Here is a scary thought...Dec and Jan are going to finish VERY -AO/NAO. I guarantee you this will be by far the warmest such two month period and it’s likely not even close. DC proper struggles to get much below 30F at this point. We haven't been in the teens in like 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GEFS still looks great. Half the runs give us 8+", 10 or so give us 12+" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GEFS still looks great. Half the runs give us 8+", 10 or so give us 12+" Dosnet matter till other models get on board 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I know I’m late to this as we wait in the euro, but that precip shield, that wind direction, that low location, the date, and then you drop that it is 37/36 at DCA. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: I really don't understand how there isn't enough cold air. It's in the 20's today. It’s easier to be cold on a north wind behind a wave then on the southerly flow ahead of a wave. 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: How do we know this isn't unique to just this season, though? You mentioned yesterday about the PV pushing cold to the other side of the globe and the fall torch...how do we know that's not what's doing this? I mean...It still snowed in the 2018-19 winter, didn't it? How do we get snow in the south, and even the January system that year, if the overall base state is bad? And with last year's +++++++++++AO...can we even count that year? Lol Maybe I'm thinking about these things too simplistically, or maybe I'm just looking for optimism, but...I'm just wondering. 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: My only issue with that is how did things change THAT much over the past several years? 2013-2014 is the coldest, snowiest wall-to-wall winter I can remember in my lifetime. 2014-2015 finished cold and snowy. 2016 had a massive blizzard. March has been a colder, snowier month recently. It's obviously happening and having some kind of impact, but for the impact to be THAT massive in just several years? Combining these two...I’m not saying we’re done with snow. Yes the last two years have had specific features that may have hurt our chances to a degree on top of simply AGW. But I am willing to say it’s more then just those factors. It’s symbiotic. I’ve seen signs for a while now. The most obvious one is how frequently patterns have not produced what analogs suggest. Those h5 analogs take the pac pattern into account. And time and again we’ve had patterns those analogs said should produce some snow and we get shut out. It’s not always that we didn’t get a 40” winter or a 20” hecs. But sometimes it’s that we should have had couple 3-4” slop storms that were just rain. And a winter should have produced 10” and we got 2” or it should have produced 18” and we got 8”. There have been way too many instances the past 10 years where a similar setup that produced some snow in the past was just rain. The frequency of really bad (single digit and even less then 5”) winters is increasing exponentially. Then we start seeing model runs where a 980 low in the perfect spot is rain in prime climo. And often that doesn’t happen but it’s showing up more and more. That shouldn’t even be a possibility on January 28. And that’s not just the Nina. Actually look at Nina climo, it’s not to torch Canada like this. This isn’t explained as simply as “Nina’s suck”. As for the acceleration. I honestly don’t know how much of this is a temporary thing and how much is a permanent degradation. But sometimes you hit tipping points. The pac warms to a point that it changes the typical jet structure. You get a feedback loop from ice/snow loss. The super nino in 2016 may have set off a feedback loop that takes a while to recover from or if the base state is warm enough perhaps we never fully recover. Or we recover some but to what %? I can’t say. Don’t even want to speculate. I can only say these two things...right now for quite a while the thermal base state of the northern hemisphere is very hostile to getting snow and we know AGW is happening. 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There were some seriously funny and erroneous early calls in here with that gfs run. It didn’t trend south the upper low came across at the same exact track just weaker. Subsequently the surface secondary low developed further south and didn’t tuck as much when it phased with the upper low. People confused weaker for south. The warmer solution was simply from a weaker solution. Less dynamic cooking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 At 72...better dig in the sw and slower to eject on the euro. It’s minor but noticeable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: At 72...better dig in the sw and slower to eject on the euro. It’s minor but noticeable also the TPV up in Canada is in a better location vs 12z gfs. Should be less suppressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Para is a complete beatdown out here. Nasty ice storm followed by a pummeling on Thursday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowLover22 said: also the PV up in Canada is in a better location vs 12z gfs. Should be less suppressive. I don’t think that feature has much effect. The heights in front are slightly lower but it’s very minor differences. But I don’t see much improvement from last run either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I know I’m late to this as we wait in the euro, but that precip shield, that wind direction, that low location, the date, and then you drop that it is 37/36 at DCA. Unreal. I don't want to discount the lack of low-level cold air, and I suppose that struggling to cool off at the surface even with a really nice synoptic setup is possible, but the GFS is known for poor handling of thermal profiles in winter events, and this forecast sounding looks really goofy to me: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I know I’m late to this as we wait in the euro, but that precip shield, that wind direction, that low location, the date, and then you drop that it is 37/36 at DCA. Unreal. It is -- though drawing this up through BUFKIT reveals that the freezing level is down to 1700' by this point with just 25 J/kg of positive energy left. Definitely some BL issues on the front side, but not insurmountable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 thoughts on euro through 96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I don’t think that feature has much effect. The heights in front are slightly lower but it’s very minor differences. But I don’t see much improvement from last run either. Looks like better heights at 84. Slower sw out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This is the main difference I see with gfs. That feature is much weaker and not affecting the flow as much on the gfs ETA: that feature washes out in future frames and isn’t much of an impact down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Looks deeper to me at 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 It’s a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 EURO 4 am Th much better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I don’t know, Euro is looking better to me. Snowing in DC Thursday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Central va with a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Haven’t looked at the surface yet but the euro trended significantly stronger with the h5 feature this run. Not all the way to the gfs but a step that way. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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