WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 12Z GEFS only has one hit through Day 7. It has shown a ton of hits for the past month and none have been correct. It’s easier for a no snow solution to be correct but at this point not sure I’m gonna sweat snow solutions from 20+ different lower resolution model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: A smorgasbord of solutions...green being the dominant color but a few frozen solutions to keep interested for sure. What do the next two panels look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It has shown a ton of hits for the past month and none have been correct. It’s easier for a no snow solution to be correct but at this point not sure I’m gonna sweat snow solutions from 20+ different lower resolution model runs. 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: What do the next two panels look like? I count more than one hit vs what Will was looking at. Also, some rain to frozen solutions like the CMC was showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 Focus on track and 500 evolution on the ensembles. They will by nature suck for precip type in CAD situations. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: I count more than one hit vs what Will was looking at. Also, some rain to frozen solutions like the CMC was showing. P10 please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: I had to go back to work but through 144 its cad signal was better for sure . What's the mean primary track ? The track looks pretty decent - maybe just a little north of 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 GEFS slp track is north of 6z and south of 0z. But pretty wide swings so far. Definitely warmer aloft though. TPV in Canada is a bit farther north and less suppressive. The biggest change is the depth of the follow on shortwave that comes onshore early next week. It’s much deeper on the 12z run and that pumps the ridge more over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 hour ago, high risk said: FWIW, one of the findings during the GFSv16 evaluation was that it handled cold air damming better than v15, possibly due to having more vertical levels. It still won't be nearly as good as the NAM nest, which in my opinion handles damming the best of the models (and sometimes even overdoes it), but once synoptic disagreement is removed, I'd favor the v16 profiles over v15. Man get this relevant substantive scientific crap out of here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Ji said: when is the last rain to snow storm we had that worked out? the PSU Storm @psuhoffman March 2015 and March 18 just off the top of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 There's an impressive inverted troff behind the storm. You can probably add another 4-6" to the jackpot to account for those "wrap around snow showers" This won't matter until we know more about the storm track though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Wish we could have a model thread limited to 4 days or closer. The 7+ day models have been more useless this year than ever and I did not think that was possible. Until the Entire platform of models is changed from giving examples to making predictions then we continue to get the same clap trap dozens and dozens of examples every 6 hours like we have last 20 years. I know of no “science” that is the same or less efficient than it was 20 years ago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Wish we could have a model thread limited to 4 days or closer. The 7+ day models have been more useless this year than ever and I did not think that was possible. Until the Entire platform of models is changed from giving examples to making predictions then we continue to get the same clap trap dozens and dozens of examples every 6 hours like we have last 20 years. I know of no “science” that is the same or less efficient than it was 20 years ago. Just because you continue to parrot this weird diatribe over and over again doesn't make it true. There is numerous statistical evidence that our modeling forecasting capabilities are much better than 20 years ago and continue to improve each year. It's not an opinion, it's a fact. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Through 123, Euro has lower heights out in front than 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 15 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Wish we could have a model thread limited to 4 days or closer. The 7+ day models have been more useless this year than ever and I did not think that was possible. Until the Entire platform of models is changed from giving examples to making predictions then we continue to get the same clap trap dozens and dozens of examples every 6 hours like we have last 20 years. I know of no “science” that is the same or less efficient than it was 20 years ago. You do know you are free to contribute however you want? Instead of complaining about how everyone else it discussing the medium/long range why don’t you analyze what you think will happen without using the models and show us how it’s done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Euro is going to be south with the 1/26 Storm. Had snow through Wisc. at 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Amped said: May miss us to the south entirely. if so thats ok. At this range...if you have a mix of just to your north, just to your south, and a few hits across guidance...that's pretty good. Were not in "details locked in" range yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Euro is going to be south with the 1/26 Storm. Had snow through Wisc. at 0z. Heights substantially lower out in front. Pretty big shift from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: A bit slower and weaker Lp so far through 150 . Might be a DC south special Wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world at this range since GFS and CMC were a bit north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Frame 162 looks promising. Snow over D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Paleocene said: Ninja'd me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: if so thats ok. At this range...if you have a mix of just to your north, just to your south, and a few hits across guidance...that's pretty good. Were not in "details locked in" range yet. Getting closer to that 150 hr threshold on guidance. Almost go-time on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Smoked (relatively speaking). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 looks just like the icon and GFS like the redskins look like the packers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just before she dry slots, the coastal gains some strength. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Getting some coastal action at 174, very nice run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Panel 174 also shows snow over DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Different evolution but I think a lot of people will like this run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: if so thats ok. At this range...if you have a mix of just to your north, just to your south, and a few hits across guidance...that's pretty good. Were not in "details locked in" range yet. I ain't mad at that location on the Euro 6-7 days out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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