Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, yoda said: GEFS mean at 123 is pretty nice tho lol Yes, WB 12Z GEFS holds firm!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: He can never be satisfied, unless its a KU. Even during a KU, he'd be here in this thread fretting over a day 10 plot that shows early spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: For whatever meteorological reason, the GFS snow maps have been like a slow tire leak the last three runs ... From 24” to 2.4” is more than a slow leak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Blend all of models right now and you probably get something similar to what the CMC is showing...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: The 6z and 00z gfs would have had ptype issues too but they were just stronger, closed off earlier, and thus dynamics took over in the ccb much faster Almost all of the members that got good snow here were warmish/rainy to start. Not many southern tracks either. Still pretty far out, but it appears this will have to evolve almost perfectly wrt to strength and track. What else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said: GFS showing my concern from last night about the lingering low up in PA preventing the cold press in the boundary layer. Thus we rely on dynamic cooling which is going to be very dependent on where the bands set up (if this gets within meso range, expect to see colder sfc temps line up with heavier precip). Weaker system means we lose this effect and get rain. Good news I guess is that this is the bias I'd expect the GFS to show at this range and the para looks good. I'd still rather see the progression that Canadian was showing last night - it moved the low out of PA faster and had a better CAD setup ahead of the storm. But it is trending towards the GFS setup at 12Z. Sounds like an early March Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 What's nice about the Para is that it has an expansive region of snow compared to its preceding 2 runs. Pushes solid snow amounts east to the coast and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GFS classic won’t be the final solution anyway. So no reason to fret. Save that negative energy for 1:30 pm today. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: GFS classic won’t be the final solution anyway. So no reason to fret. Save that negative energy for 1:30 pm today. My thought exactly, maybe we ultimately get what the EURO is showing but to think it's a lock now is absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Yes, WB 12Z GEFS holds firm!!! In the GEFS we trust!! It’s been solid No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 My Guess is the Euro will be a step toward the CMC solution but not quite as good...... would love to see the Euro pick up on something and turn it more towards a GFS type solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Quasievil said: My thought exactly, maybe what ultimately get what the EURO is showing but to think it's a lock now is absurd. Temps are almost always a concern here. More so this year. The problem with those weenie runs is setting the expectation bar too high. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This euro love is misplaced. Not that I trust the gfs because I think that model is off its rocker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS certainly not horrible 12z introduces more southern (miss) solutions than 6z. Nothing to worry about. Still looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 WB 12Z GEFS snow maps pretty impressive still... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Trimmed some of the massive hits NW but expanded the general overall look. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I’ve learned using Storm vista a while it likes to count sleet as snow, but it never counts snow if the surface temps are even .1 over 32 . You can see that on the mean here. Just pointing it out for other SV users. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 47 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: definitely south This is my favorite post of the day. And I’m just having fun with you. I’ve done it myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 GGEM/GEFS/Para combo looks great to me. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: GGEM/GEFS/Para combo looks great to me. I wanted to Weenie this post too so I’ll do it here I agree with you though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Trimmed some of the massive hits NW but expanded the general overall look. If that's not a snow signal I don't know what is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Trimmed some of the massive hits NW but expanded the general overall look. Wow that looks so nice. LFG. If we get nothing from this it would be a very bad bust from GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Ukie actually has a storm this run lol. It’s still east, but a trend 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 28 minutes ago, Ji said: i dont buy that. Spain had a blizzard a few weeks ago. Lebanon/Middle East/UK. Japan had record snow. Lousiana got 9 inches Anomalies still happen. But almost all the snow to our south...and at our latitude lately, comes from getting lucky with an upper level feature to crash temps. When was the last time we saw a huge expanse or cold powder to the northeast of a low coming across the US? If the coverage of snowfall overall in a larger scale decreases the odds of any one spot getting snow goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Chris78 said: If that's not a snow signal I don't know what is lol Keep that look through the weekend and we are inside 100 hours. Been a while since we have even gotten that close with digital snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Ya know how they say "pics or it didn't happen"? Well now we're in here like "EURO or it didn't happen", lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The Para looks like 6-8 or so. Not bad, but was expecting better by comments on here. I guess it's all relative? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Anomalies still happen. But almost all the snow to our south...and at our latitude lately, comes from getting lucky with an upper level feature to crash temps. When was the last time we saw a huge expanse or cold powder to the northeast of a low coming across the US? If the coverage of snowfall overall in a larger scale decreases the odds of any one spot getting snow goes down. Define "lately"...Just this year, or did you see something between 2016 and now? Again I'll mention the "bomb cyclone"...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Anomalies still happen. But almost all the snow to our south...and at our latitude lately, comes from getting lucky with an upper level feature to crash temps. When was the last time we saw a huge expanse or cold powder to the northeast of a low coming across the US? If the coverage of snowfall overall in a larger scale decreases the odds of any one spot getting snow goes down. Rare events have weird distributions. That said, 6" of snow wasn't unusual 50+ years ago in Louisiana. The record snowfall there is 14" and every few years there would be a decent 6+" event in the middle and upper parts of the state where the 9" were recorded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 WB Can 4am Th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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