Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Main takeaway I have is that it is still miles apart from the Euro since it still shows a dynamic storm. Yes but remember the discussion about the GFS and it's data...if true, and we see 18z get a little worse again, (and no improvement on the euro) this could be the beginning of the ticks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Dc area doesn’t even sniff freezing for the duration. Starts at 42 and maybe gets to 34. Ugly Heck, its even 32-33 up here with a 1040 high and a bombing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: OMG guess who's house that is besides mine lol Yo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 Para is a nice hit for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Para with a very nice h5 look ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Meanwhile the para says i got you guys with a nice snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I think it’s maybe time to stop tip toeing around it. We all know what the issue is. i dont buy that. Spain had a blizzard a few weeks ago. Lebanon/Middle East/UK. Japan had record snow. Lousiana got 9 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Global warming FTW. We can’t even get a great snow with a bombing coastal low and perfect track lol Yea if that setup doesn’t “work” I’m not even sure what we’re tracking anymore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i just lost 20 inches without losing the storm I lost 31 in the same manner. It is quite something. This is a a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Para is a nice hit for everyone. that actually makes more sense. Thats why its the upgraded model lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Here is a scary thought...Dec and Jan are going to finish VERY -AO/NAO. I guarantee you this will be by far the warmest such two month period and it’s likely not even close. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GFS showing my concern from last night about the lingering low up in PA preventing the cold press in the boundary layer. Thus we rely on dynamic cooling which is going to be very dependent on where the bands set up (if this gets within meso range, expect to see colder sfc temps line up with heavier precip). Weaker system means we lose this effect and get rain. Good news I guess is that this is the bias I'd expect the GFS to show at this range and the para looks good. I'd still rather see the progression that Canadian was showing last night - it moved the low out of PA faster and had a better CAD setup ahead of the storm. But it is trending towards the GFS setup at 12Z. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 lol, yeah, para finally joins and GFS shits the bed worst than Weather Will posting 16,459 maps with terrible and/or obvious editorials. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i dont buy that. Spain had a blizzard a few weeks ago. Lebanon/Middle East/UK. Japan had record snow. Lousiana got 9 inches Weird things happen. We're not done with snow. But damn its ABUNDANTLY clear it's harder to get it around here. There's no cold air anywhere!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yea if that setup doesn’t “work” I’m not even sure what we’re tracking anymore. How do we know this isn't unique to just this season, though? You mentioned yesterday about the PV pushing cold to the other side of the globe and the fall torch...how do we know that's not what's doing this? I mean...It still snowed in the 2018-19 winter, didn't it? How do we get snow in the south, and even the January system that year, if the overall base state is bad? And with last year's +++++++++++AO...can we even count that year? Lol Maybe I'm thinking about these things too simplistically, or maybe I'm just looking for optimism, but...I'm just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: lol, yeah, para finally joins and GFS shits the bed worst than Weather Will posting 16,459 maps with terrible and/or obvious editorials. WB says come back in mid Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think it’s maybe time to stop tip toeing around it. We all know what the issue is. Yup. And we have to find the New Englander who is putting the hex on us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ji said: that hole over my house is pretty funny. I think God is really punishing me. I might be the Jonah of this board Sounds about right- Jonah’s Wintry Mix. Confess. Did you buy a snowblower and curse us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Here is a scary thought...Dec and Jan are going to finish VERY -AO/NAO. I guarantee you this will be by far the warmest such two month period and it’s likely not even close. Your good buddy JB pointed out yesterday that this may have been the warmest winter on record if there wasn't prolonged blocking. Scary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Canadian looks better than 0z at H5. Surface is a little south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think it’s maybe time to stop tip toeing around it. We all know what the issue is. My only issue with that is how did things change THAT much over the past several years? 2013-2014 is the coldest, snowiest wall-to-wall winter I can remember in my lifetime. 2014-2015 finished cold and snowy. 2016 had a massive blizzard. March has been a colder, snowier month recently. It's obviously happening and having some kind of impact, but for the impact to be THAT massive in just several years? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Canadian looks better than 0z at H5. Surface is a little south. At least the CMC is all snow from 117 on at DCA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GGEM is pretty much a disaster. Run of the mill storm...look much more like euro than GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, yoda said: At least the CMC is all snow from 117 on at DCA lol I jumped the gun. It’s a weaker overall sw even though heights were better out front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 There were some seriously funny and erroneous early calls in here with that gfs run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: I jumped the gun. It’s a weaker overall sw even though heights were better out front. i'll take the 4-8 all day every day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ji said: GGEM is pretty much a disaster. Run of the mill storm...look much more like euro than GFS Powerhouse 1008 low. Solid WWA event on CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: I jumped the gun. It’s a weaker overall sw even though heights were better out front. I'd take weaker SW and all snow over the "pray for dynamic cooling" rain bomb potential from the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ji said: GGEM is pretty much a disaster. Run of the mill storm...look much more like euro than GFS Pretty sure DC folks would be thrilled with a "run of the mill" storm. Cant speak for you tho. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 For whatever meteorological reason, the GFS snow maps have been like a slow tire leak the last three runs ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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