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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Main takeaway I have is that it is still miles apart from the Euro since it still shows a dynamic storm. 

Yes but remember the discussion about the GFS and it's data...if true, and we see 18z get a little worse again, (and no improvement on the euro) this could be the beginning of the ticks...

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I think it’s maybe time to stop tip toeing around it. We all know what the issue is. 

i dont buy that. Spain had a blizzard a few weeks ago. Lebanon/Middle East/UK. Japan had record snow. Lousiana got 9 inches

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GFS showing my concern from last night about the lingering low up in PA preventing the cold press in the boundary layer. Thus we rely on dynamic cooling which is going to be very dependent on where the bands set up (if this gets within meso range, expect to see colder sfc temps line up with heavier precip). Weaker system means we lose this effect and get rain. Good news I guess is that this is the bias I'd expect the GFS to show at this range and the para looks good. I'd still rather see the progression that Canadian was showing last night - it moved the low out of PA faster and had a better CAD setup ahead of the storm. But it is trending towards the GFS setup at 12Z.

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont buy that. Spain had a blizzard a few weeks ago. Lebanon/Middle East/UK. Japan had record snow. Lousiana got 9 inches

Weird things happen.  We're not done with snow.  But damn its ABUNDANTLY clear it's harder to get it around here.  There's no cold air anywhere!!

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea if that setup doesn’t “work” I’m not even sure what we’re tracking anymore. 

How do we know this isn't unique to just this season, though? You mentioned yesterday about the PV pushing cold to the other side of the globe and the fall torch...how do we know that's not what's doing this? I mean...It still snowed in the 2018-19 winter, didn't it? How do we get snow in the south, and even the January system that year, if the overall base state is bad? And with last year's +++++++++++AO...can we even count that year? Lol Maybe I'm thinking about these things too simplistically, or maybe I'm just looking for optimism, but...I'm just wondering.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Here is a scary thought...Dec and Jan are going to finish VERY -AO/NAO. I guarantee you this will be by far the warmest such two month period and it’s likely not even close. 

Your good buddy JB pointed out yesterday that this may have been the warmest winter on record if there wasn't prolonged blocking. Scary.

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think it’s maybe time to stop tip toeing around it. We all know what the issue is. 

My only issue with that is how did things change THAT much over the past several years? 2013-2014 is the coldest, snowiest wall-to-wall winter I can remember in my lifetime. 2014-2015 finished cold and snowy. 2016 had a massive blizzard. March has been a colder, snowier month recently. It's obviously happening and having some kind of impact, but for the impact to be THAT massive in just several years?

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