VA Mad Man Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: This...would be something New ways to show a DC snow hole 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 If storm takes that track with that setup, everybody on this board would score nicely......id take my chances..... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Still rain at 120...I know the gfs thermals are not usually good but...seriously Double bind... unfortunately there just isn’t enough cold to make any storm “easy”. The amount of suppression we need to stop warmth from surging north also is very close to be too much to allow anything to amplify. Do there is a very very very narrow margin we’re playing in and to get a big snow we will have to play with fire either way. There isn’t enough cold to get some huge shield of cold smoke to the north of a storm. Everything at our latitude and south is going to have to be dynamically driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 that hole over my house is pretty funny. I think God is really punishing me. I might be the Jonah of this board 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Unfortunately, It’s irrelevant until the EURO is on board.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I really don't understand how there isn't enough cold air. It's in the 20's today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Thermals are being hurt by the lingering precip over NE PA and NJ at 105-108 so we don’t have as much room to wet bulb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Now THAT's more like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Main takeaway I have is that it is still miles apart from the Euro since it still shows a dynamic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Weaker cause of ull pressing south a bit more? Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk No It was just weaker. Took the same track until it hit the east coast then it’s shoved south more by the flow because it’s weaker. It was just weaker. Maybe the more south tpv had some impact. Compressing the flow a bit. It was slightly weaker pretty early on though. But while everyone is stressing the rain the real issue is it was a definite trend towards the euro. Remember the euro isn’t really south it’s just weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Man, if only we could get that track during prime climo. 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Not buying into the gfs until Tuesday. I’ll go with the Euro/Canadian until then. The gfs is having some serious issues analyzing its data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Dc area doesn’t even sniff freezing for the duration. Starts at 42 and maybe gets to 34. Ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 i just lost 20 inches without losing the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: If storm takes that track with that setup, everybody on this board would score nicely......id take my chances..... Yeah, I mean, I don't really buy those boundary layer temps on the GFS. But seriously, WTF? It's not coming up with those by magic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If this: And this: Produce rain in the deformation band of a coastal low on January 28th??? Something is seriously, seriously wrong. I think it’s maybe time to stop tip toeing around it. We all know what the issue is. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Main takeaway I have is that it is still miles apart from the Euro since it still shows a dynamic storm. Yes but remember the discussion about the GFS and it's data...if true, and we see 18z get a little worse again, (and no improvement on the euro) this could be the beginning of the ticks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Dc area doesn’t even sniff freezing for the duration. Starts at 42 and maybe gets to 34. Ugly Heck, its even 32-33 up here with a 1040 high and a bombing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: OMG guess who's house that is besides mine lol Yo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 Para is a nice hit for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Para with a very nice h5 look ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Meanwhile the para says i got you guys with a nice snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I think it’s maybe time to stop tip toeing around it. We all know what the issue is. i dont buy that. Spain had a blizzard a few weeks ago. Lebanon/Middle East/UK. Japan had record snow. Lousiana got 9 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Global warming FTW. We can’t even get a great snow with a bombing coastal low and perfect track lol Yea if that setup doesn’t “work” I’m not even sure what we’re tracking anymore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i just lost 20 inches without losing the storm I lost 31 in the same manner. It is quite something. This is a a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Para is a nice hit for everyone. that actually makes more sense. Thats why its the upgraded model lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Here is a scary thought...Dec and Jan are going to finish VERY -AO/NAO. I guarantee you this will be by far the warmest such two month period and it’s likely not even close. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GFS showing my concern from last night about the lingering low up in PA preventing the cold press in the boundary layer. Thus we rely on dynamic cooling which is going to be very dependent on where the bands set up (if this gets within meso range, expect to see colder sfc temps line up with heavier precip). Weaker system means we lose this effect and get rain. Good news I guess is that this is the bias I'd expect the GFS to show at this range and the para looks good. I'd still rather see the progression that Canadian was showing last night - it moved the low out of PA faster and had a better CAD setup ahead of the storm. But it is trending towards the GFS setup at 12Z. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 lol, yeah, para finally joins and GFS shits the bed worst than Weather Will posting 16,459 maps with terrible and/or obvious editorials. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i dont buy that. Spain had a blizzard a few weeks ago. Lebanon/Middle East/UK. Japan had record snow. Lousiana got 9 inches Weird things happen. We're not done with snow. But damn its ABUNDANTLY clear it's harder to get it around here. There's no cold air anywhere!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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