clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 For those saying the Euro doesn't usually fail inside 5 days. It failed miserably with the December storm inside 3 days. It is the best model for sure. But it isn't perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I know it used to do that for the 6z and 18z runs. Thats why back in the day, the 6z and 18z runs could burp out some real outlier solutions. But I thought that changed long ago. @high risk? 1 hour ago, LP08 said: I’d bet dollar to donuts that the gfs doesn’t use it’s 6hr forecast for its next run. It injests new data prior to every run. Both are true. Yes, the GFS ingests new data for every cycle, but you have to use something as the first guess, and that is the 6-hr forecast from the previous GFS cycle. You can't just insert obs onto a blank slate - there have to be initial values for all prognostic fields at all grid point at all levels, and you adjust those initial values based on the observations to get a solution that is balanced. You can't just use blunt force with a data observation and try to just perform straight interpolation of its value in the horizontal and vertical. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, high risk said: Both are true. Yes, the GFS ingests new data for every cycle, but you have to use something as the first guess, and that is the 6-hr forecast from the previous GFS cycle. You can't just insert obs onto a blank slate - there have to be initial values for all prognostic fields at all grid point at all levels, and you adjust those initial values based on the observations to get a solution that is balanced. You can't just use blunt force with a data observation and try to just perform straight interpolation of its value in the horizontal and vertical. But wouldn’t all models do that as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: ^stronger and more consolidated shortwave. Can’t think that’s bad. Yes but also slightly less ridging and a more compressed flow in front of it. They probably offset imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, high risk said: Both are true. Yes, the GFS ingests new data for every cycle, but you have to use something as the first guess, and that is the 6-hr forecast from the previous GFS cycle. You can't just insert obs onto a blank slate - there have to be initial values for all prognostic fields at all grid point at all levels, and you adjust those initial values based on the observations to get a solution that is balanced. You can't just use blunt force with a data observation and try to just perform straight interpolation of its value in the horizontal and vertical. Would this explain trends to a certain degree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said: 6z eps is a little better. Still nothing like GEFS but certainly an improvement What made you say this? Just curious because it looks worse then 0z to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Nam looks “diggy” toward the end of its run when comparing to gfs at 90. I’m tempering my expectations as I’m sure most are. Right now threat slightly better for areas to my north and east but I’m far from out of it with para and Canadian looking better region wide. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Would this explain trends to a certain degree? Maybe? If, say, the GFS badly initialized the wave off of the west coast at 18z yesterday, it *could* take a few cycles to undo the damage. For the 00z cycle, it would start with the specification of the wave from the 18z 6h forecast (the first guess). If there is new data where that feature resides at 00z, it will take that into account, but it will probably only adjust the first guess partially towards the new obs there. Then the 06z cycle will adjust further. It depends how much data is available where the feature is and how different it is from the first guess. A famous example is with the NWP failures with the 2000 blizzard. On the morning before the blizzard, the Peachtree City, GA raob had big wind speeds up at jet level, as a huge jet streak rotated through the trough and helped it go negative tilt. The first guess value of the jet level wind speed over GA was about 40 (I can't remember the number) knots lower than the ob, and the models all treated the ob as garbage and pretty much didn't adjust the wind speed there at all. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 ICON is a weak POS wave that just slides off the coast. Some very light (less than an inch) snow to CVA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 We all know what is happening today... Can’t wait for Spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: ICON is a weak POS wave that just slides off the coast. Some very light (less than an inch) snow to CVA. It’s that ULL in Canada that doesn’t allow it to amplify. At least in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: It’s that ULL in Canada that doesn’t allow it to amplify. At least in my eyes. Good catch, yep the placement of that feature looks to be key. GFS handling it totally differently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What made you say this? Just curious because it looks worse then 0z to me. I posted later, but I thoughtthe H5 was more organized early on, but turns out the confluence was worst from the lingering 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: I posted later, but I thoughtthe H5 was more organized early on, but turns out the confluence was worst from the lingering 50/50 Yea the wave was stronger but the shred factory flow got worse and more then offset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 36 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: For those saying the Euro doesn't usually fail inside 5 days. It failed miserably with the December storm inside 3 days. It is the best model for sure. But it isn't perfect. It fails in New England all the time, FWIW. I have seen it cave to the GFS and even the GGEM twice now. It's not the same Euro as in the past. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 20 minutes ago, high risk said: Maybe? If, say, the GFS badly initialized the wave off of the west coast at 18z yesterday, it *could* take a few cycles to undo the damage. For the 00z cycle, it would start with the specification of the wave from the 18z 6h forecast (the first guess). If there is new data where that feature resides at 00z, it will take that into account, but it will probably only adjust the first guess partially towards the new obs there. Then the 06z cycle will adjust further. It depends how much data is available where the feature is and how different it is from the first guess. A famous example is with the NWP failures with the 2000 blizzard. On the morning before the blizzard, the Peachtree City, GA raob had big wind speeds up at jet level, as a huge jet streak rotated through the trough and helped it go negative tilt. The first guess value of the jet level wind speed over GA was about 40 (I can't remember the number) knots lower than the ob, and the models all treated the ob as garbage and pretty much didn't adjust the wind speed there at all. Thanks, to me it makes sense why we sometimes see the GFS kind of tick towards other models at times, and then it has one run where it completely caves on th overall progression of events. I’d wager good money the 12z gfs ticks south again, but I suppose the big money will be on the 00z run. This also happens to other models though too so there’s just so many factors well see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Got a bad feeling about the 12z suite......fingers crossed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Got a bad feeling about the 12z suite......fingers crossed Literally anything less than 18” on the GFS is a step back. There’s no way this can end well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I see things I don’t like at 81 hours. That’s all I’m gonna say. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Don't see a huge difference so farSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 23 minutes ago, LP08 said: It’s that ULL in Canada that doesn’t allow it to amplify. At least in my eyes. That ULL that you are talking about on the icon is further south on the 12z gfs vs 6z. Hope that is not too bad of a sign..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtogo Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I see things I don’t like at 81 hours. That’s all I’m gonna say. Just now, Ji said: Don't see a huge difference so far Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I see things I don’t like at 81 hours. That’s all I’m gonna say. I only see thru 72. I guess things changed:(Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Through 90...gfs is a little south with the ULL in Canada. SW in the sw is a touch slower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Don't see a huge difference so far Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk ULL is further south....lower heights out front through 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Don't see a huge difference so far Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk The TPV in Canada is a lot further southeast and compressing the flow in front more. It might not matter. But I don’t like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Yea but we had a bit of wiggle room Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Through 90...gfs is a little south with the ULL in Canada. SW in the sw is a touch slower. Slowly going the wrong way. Euro and GFS will likely meet in the middle at some point as usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 In these last final moments before the rug gets pulled, I just want to say I love you all. 3 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Has it been 30 hours already? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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