ryanconway63 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The 6z Para GFS seems most realistic to me at this point. I cant get excited with what the Euro is currently showing.....If a MECS was coming the Euro will definitely pick up on it by 12z today. If not ill remain extremely skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Admittedly I have an unnerving feeling about this one, especially after the reading above where the GFS if it is wrong takes several runs to adjust. Agreed...Euro does not normally fail within five days. Although the Canadian would be the compromise solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, ryanconway63 said: The 6z Para GFS seems most realistic to me at this point. I cant get excited with what the Euro is currently showing.....If a MECS was coming the Euro will definitely pick up on it by 12z today. If not ill remain extremely skeptical Not sure we can make any definitive statements on this one yet... the models have been struggling mightily in this pattern. It’s been really tough to even search for trends... every time it seems there is one, the models shift the next suite. I’d keep an open mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Admittedly I have an unnerving feeling about this one, especially after the reading above where the GFS if it is wrong takes several runs to adjust. Did that rule work when the gfs went from a historic SC storm to a historic NC storm to a historic Lynchburg storm to a historic Norfolk storm to a historic nova storm in 3 days 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: This is good info to know. From our Philly board met. “If the GFS went off the rails, it takes about 30 hours of runs to self correct because it uses its own 6 hr forecast to adjust initial conditions. Hence if it is an error, it gets perpetuated in future runs until a pair of sounding runs expunge it. The Euro starts from scratch each sounding run. So by the 00z run tonight we will know” Where is this from? I dont see it on here... and i've never heard of that before with any model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Did that rule work when the gfs went from a historic SC storm to a historic NC storm to a historic Lynchburg storm to a historic Norfolk storm to a historic nova storm in 3 days Touche. Would like the know which poster on the other forum said that about the GFS. In other news, the NAM at range looks consolidated with the sw in the SW about to move out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Agreed...Euro does not normally fail within five days. Although the Canadian would be the compromise solution. 12z euro yesterday to 0z to 6z this morning showing quite the difference just for Monday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I’d bet dollar to donuts that the gfs doesn’t use it’s 6hr forecast for its next run. It injests new data prior to every run. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: I’d bet dollar to donuts that the gfs doesn’t use it’s 6hr forecast for its next run. It injests new data prior to every run. I know it used to do that for the 6z and 18z runs. Thats why back in the day, the 6z and 18z runs could burp out some real outlier solutions. But I thought that changed long ago. @high risk? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 So ICON went even more strung out....essentially a nothing burger. UKIE is a nothing burger. And Euro is in that camp? Euro needs to find better friends....it doesn't need that sort of negativity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Until we can see any serious run to run consistency, caution is best here. IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I know it used to do that for the 6z and 18z runs. Thats why back in the day, the 6z and 18z runs could burp out some real outlier solutions. But I thought that changed long ago. @high risk? @dtk would be a good one to ask too, I think. To be honest I'm calling BS preliminarily as well. 30 hours to adjust? Why wouldn't it be 24? Or 12? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I caught Jay’s FB post late last night after the epic GFS run, so I knew there would be a lot to read through this morning. We always need perfect ingredients to get a nice coastal storm around here, which is what the Euro showed on Wed/Thursday and what the GFS has now shown for a couple of runs. I do agree with someone else who says that the Euro often shows a storm in the long-term, loses it in the medium range and then brings it back. I also recall a few winters recently that the Euro has not done great, which some have attributed to the strong Pacific. I’m hoping that the GFS is on to something because we all could use some purples, pinks, and greens around here. So I guess we all just hold our breath until 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Today feels like a "talk ourselves out of it" kinda day 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 In December, GFS led the way, right? I am concerned seeing only the GFS and maybe Canadian giving us a big storm. Anyone extrapolating the NAM yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I'm not a data assimilation scientist although I interact with that community from time to time. So take this fwiw. All of the global centers pretty much ingest the same sfc obs, aircraft obs, satellite obs, and radiosondes. ECMWF has a bit of an advantage because they can use some Chinese and Russian satellites that NOAA is prohibited from using, and I think they have a longer time window for when they allow observations to roll in (this is part of why it comes out later). Where they differ is how they adjust the initial state...they all start from the previous forecast but how much impact observations are allowed to have to change this state, and how observations at one time/location impact the fields at different times/locations depend on the assimilation technique. The radiosondes have the largest impact (https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/forecasts/systems/fp/obs_impact/), so that lends some credence to giving more weight to the 12z/0z runs if they show a big change, but there is plenty of other independent info going into the 6z/18z runs. 9 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Today feels like a "talk ourselves out of it" kinda day I am still trying to talk myself into the early week event. Its not working. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Today feels like a "talk ourselves out of it" kinda day Yeah. It's a we've been down this road before kind of thing, right? So many Charlie Brown moments. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: I am still trying to talk myself into the early week event. Its not working. A verified WSW event of 5 non slant stick inches would be all I could hope for at my terdshow location. Not a lot to ask for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, yoda said: Where is this from? I dont see it on here... and i've never heard of that before with any model Tony, rain shadow. One of the best Philly Mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Tony, rain shadow. One of the best Philly Mets Seems really weird though... I politely disagree with that assessment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I've seen the gfs give us a big storm at 12z only to take it away at 18z....one of the many reasons I complain last so much Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 So ICON went even more strung out....essentially a nothing burger. UKIE is a nothing burger. And Euro is in that camp? Euro needs to find better friends....it doesn't need that sort of negativity.Icon has a good ull but it's crushed by a strong ull feature in Canada. Gfs had that feature way northSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I've seen the gfs give us a big storm at 12z only to take it away at 18z....one of the many reasons I complain last so much Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk It is simply incredible when you look at the GFS and this morning's European even the GFS ensembles and the huge differences at 120 hours between them. Sometimes folks will mention to GFS has been consistent for 3 days in a row but even that means little. consistency does not necessarily mean accuracy eventually the GFS flipped and went to the European solution I believe this was a few years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Seems really weird though... I politely disagree with that assessment It’s not that simple as the above met posted, idk was just throwing it out there. Doesnt mean the gfs is wrong would like to have the euro/Ukie on board very soon 50 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: In December, GFS led the way, right? I am concerned seeing only the GFS and maybe Canadian giving us a big storm. Anyone extrapolating the NAM yet? Idk up here it was atrocious. Was way too south. So was the euro though at times. There were runs like 3 days out that had Philly getting the max snow with Bgm sniffing virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, frd said: It is simply incredible when you look at the GFS and this morning's European even the GFS ensembles and the huge differences I 120 hours between them. Well, if either caves more to each other, let's hope they settle on the CMC variant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 It is simply incredible when you look at the GFS and this morning's European even the GFS ensembles and the huge differences at 120 hours between them. Sometimes folks will mention to GFS has been consistent for 3 days in a row but even that means little. consistency does not necessarily mean accuracy eventually the GFS flipped and went to the European solution I believe this was a few years agoYep being consistent means nothing when it doesn't agree with a superior model. It's heartbreaking but I think we all know what's going to happen Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 That’s a lot of precip that falls as mostly snow IMBY. All in. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 NAM at range (all caveats apply) has the boundary for the ull to.follow much farther N imo and is reflected at the surface with a weak precip shield stretching from the slp in the Southwest all the way to upper PA. Or am I way off base here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 12 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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