yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: I would take this run and call it a winter. Now that makes me want to look at some of the individs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This is only a 6 hour panel, so more snow to come esp for eastern areas on the ones that are wet. The thing to note is on many members, like the op, it is warmish and wet at the start of the event. As usual, not a lot of cold air around. The low needs to be amped and take a damn near perfect track for this to work, esp for the lowlands. Very few southern tracks in the mix. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Yes euro didn’t spit out a foot of snow but I don’t think it was as bad as the reaction. It just needed to be a bit more amped and the solution would have been better. That’s not a huge adjustment to make in the MR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 22 minutes ago, CAPE said: I would take this run and call it a winter. I wonder if this trends into your Nina beach blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Jesus on a handbag that GFS run is epic. This is the real deal - East vs West, USA vs Europe. We have the Canadians in our corner too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: I wonder if this trends into your Nina beach blizzard? Chasing is fun, but it would be nice to have a legit event in my yard for once lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 NC mets giving legit sounding reasons this thing will still go south while our group is giving legit sounding reasons this will still go a little north maybe meanwhile South Carolina mets are saying what happened to my historic snowstorm. Buckle up kiddies we are about to get on the rollercoaster of joy and despair. My guess a few of you won't make it....my condolences to your pets. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Yea, 6z GFS doubling down. I Thought 0z was a fluke...I dunno now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Yea, 6z GFS doubling down. I Thought 0z was a fluke...I dunno now I think it’s a fluke. I think the Canadiis a good meet in the middle outcome for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yes euro didn’t spit out a foot of snow but I don’t think it was as bad as the reaction. It just needed to be a bit more amped and the solution would have been better. That’s not a huge adjustment to make in the MR. It was close. Looking at h5, there are some subtle differences between the Euro and GFS. The biggest one may be the spacing between the developing shortwave and the big NA vortex. A bit more on the GFS, and so it is able to develop more ridging out in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I kind of agree with the sentiment that we’ll see a meet in the middle type deal. If I can storm chase to you guys that would be awesome though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 hours ago, stormtracker said: Everybody hold hands... Like Toy Story heading into the inferno incinerator. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think it’s a fluke. I think the Canadiis a good meet in the middle outcome for now. Yup. Sensible would be CMC until we get another major model that winds this up like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 If anything, the GEFS 6z is a decent improvement bs 0z wrt strength, track, and clustering of individual slp. Talk about doubling down. Lost most southern and Eastern outliers from 0z. Basically just played bully and told the euro to get a fricken clue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6z vs 00z euro comparison fwiw , gif should work lmk if it isn’t. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 ^stronger and more consolidated shortwave. Can’t think that’s bad. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: It was close. Looking at h5, there are some subtle differences between the Euro and GFS. The biggest one may be the spacing between the developing shortwave and the big NA vortex. A bit more on the GFS, and so it is able to develop more ridging out in front. Yes, the GFS keeps the 500-mb shortwave mostly coherent as it propagates from AZ on 12z Tuesday to the OH river valley, where it acquires a negative tilt.The shortwave on the Euro loses its coherence over the southwest, keeping some of the energy delayed as the feature moves eastward. The result is a flatter, positively tilted shortwave that produces less favorable interaction with the developing surface low. There's definitely potential with this system for snow in the mid-Atlantic, but I think there's too much uncertainty right now in how these features will evolve to be confident in any operational model solution. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, heavy_wx said: Yes, the GFS keeps the 500-mb shortwave mostly coherent as it propagates from AZ on 12z Tuesday to the OH river valley, where it acquires a negative tilt.The shortwave on the Euro loses its coherence over the southwest, keeping some of the energy delayed as the feature moves eastward. The result is a flatter, positively tilted shortwave that produces less favorable interaction with the developing surface low. There's definitely potential with this system for snow in the mid-Atlantic, but I think there's too much uncertainty right now in how these features will evolve to be confident in any operational model solution. Would you consider that to be a bias of the euro with s/w ejection with systems coming out of the southwest like we’ve seen in past storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Why has no one posted this weather porn? 5 1 1 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6z eps is a little better. Still nothing like GEFS but certainly an improvement 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Para-GFS looks similar to its 0z run, FWIW, more south than OP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This is good info to know. From our Philly board met. “If the GFS went off the rails, it takes about 30 hours of runs to self correct because it uses its own 6 hr forecast to adjust initial conditions. Hence if it is an error, it gets perpetuated in future runs until a pair of sounding runs expunge it. The Euro starts from scratch each sounding run. So by the 00z run tonight we will know” 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Would you consider that to be a bias of the euro with s/w ejection with systems coming out of the southwest like we’ve seen in past storms? Good question; I'm not sure if the differences in the shortwave evolution are caused by something inherent in the model dynamics or differences in the model initial conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Where are you getting the PARA GFS now? TT isnt showing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, ryanconway63 said: Where are you getting the PARA GFS now? TT isnt showing it pivotalweather has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 WB 6Z ensembles EPS, control, GEFS, Can 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Will be an epic fail for EURO if GFS wins this battle ....6Z EPS not showing much compared to 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 At 132....one of these is going to look pretty awful. Couldnt be further apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: Will be an epic fail for EURO....6Z EPS not showing much compared to 0Z. Admittedly I have an unnerving feeling about this one, especially after the reading above where the GFS if it is wrong takes several runs to adjust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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