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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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3 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

out west through 84 hours the euro and gfs actually look remarkably similar. The differences I see is that the shortwave is more amplified on the gfs vs the euro. PV is in a similar placement on both models. 

 

1 minute ago, SnowLover22 said:

it is already clear at 96 hours that the euro will not be like the gfs. Shortwave is not digging as much out west. 

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6 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

it is already clear at 96 hours that the euro will not be like the gfs. Shortwave is not digging as much out west. 

 

8 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

out west through 84 hours the euro and gfs actually look remarkably similar. The differences I see is that the shortwave is more amplified on the gfs vs the euro. PV is in a similar placement on both models. 

@NorthArlington101 not digging as much and less amplified go hand in hand generally. A shortwave that does not dig  will generally not be amplified as a shortwave that really digs especially if it is able to tilt negatively. 

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Just now, Ji said:

850s was never the issue smh

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so its NOTHING like the gfs/cmc wrt strenght...we need the wave to be stronger and not deamplify as it comes across as much... but imo just looking at h5 the euro made baby steps the right way.  Slightly more amplified early on, slightly more ridging..little further north track of the h5 low.  But it simply needs to be more amplified to initiate the result of the GFS or even the GGEM.  

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so its NOTHING like the gfs/cmc wrt strenght...we need the wave to be stronger and not deamplify as it comes across as much... but imo just looking at h5 the euro made baby steps the right way.  Slightly more amplified early on, slightly more ridging..little further north track of the h5 low.  But it simply needs to be more amplified to initiate the result of the GFS or even the GGEM.  
It's not even close. Its a horrific run.

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Doesn't look like it's gonna be the beast the GFS had, but we all knew it wasn't gonna be that good.
It's not even 80% of what the Canadian had. How can icon ggem and gfs see a big storm and euro won't

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

It's not even close. Its a horrific run.

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NO...do you remember last nights run?  That was a horrific run.   If this showed a central NC hit right now...that would be a problem we probably can say we wont recover from.  Look at the track of the h5 feature.  Look at the track of the precip before it dies during the "transfer" because the system is too weak to initiate a healthy secondary in time.  Its heading right for us.  The only adjustment we need here is more amplified with the wave and we have a storm.  Don't need a track adjustment of the major feature.  Don't need some major thermal changes.  We just need one thing...and maybe we don't get the GFS op idea...but if the euro is just slightly more amplified we at least get a nice snow event.  

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Just now, Deck Pic said:

GFS gives us 50x more snow than the euro.  I like the optimism, but toss the GFS.

yea no that GFS run was fun but I think most of us know that's a max potential only if all the stars aligned thing.  I would be happy if we could just compromise...get the euro to amp up just a little...and get a nice simple snow event across the area out of this.  

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NO...do you remember last nights run?  That was a horrific run.   If this showed a central NC hit right now...that would be a problem we probably can say we wont recover from.  Look at the track of the h5 feature.  Look at the track of the precip before it dies during the "transfer" because the system is too weak to initiate a healthy secondary in time.  Its heading right for us.  The only adjustment we need here is more amplified with the wave and we have a storm.  Don't need a track adjustment of the major feature.  Don't need some major thermal changes.  We just need one thing...and maybe we don't get the GFS op idea...but if the euro is just slightly more amplified we at least get a nice snow event.  
I wasn't worried about a north shift. .I was worried how a model with such high resolution is just going to create a strong shortwave that amplifies in 60 hours when it's not showing it now. A model that has a bias of overamping nonetheless

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