nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, yoda said: 00z CMC 982mb SLP 150 miles or so (rough guess) offshore of ORF at 144 Get out your Quiji board to decipher this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 CMC has the primary in central Tn at 120....west of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The Canadians want us to have a regional blizzard on that run as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The gfs is just whacked. And I don’t buy it for a second. But I really want to lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Biggest concern I have with the GFS is that the primary low from Monday hangs around in PA which prevents any cold from draining into our area. There's really no CAD ahead of the system. So we rely on dynamic cooling as the low bombs out. Canadian looks like it is weaker and faster with the early week system and has more of a classic CAD setup. Big differences apparent at 96 hrs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Get out your Quiji board to decipher this Damn! The CMC is so close to phasing in a second lobe of the PV extension on the backside of the trof now. I dont think any other model is showing this tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You know...its really frustrating when the long range tracking never pays off like lately...and then it makes the mid and short range tracking stressful because were so desperate to get snow that when things go wrong its gut wrenching. In a way the long range pattern tracking is less stressful. There is less pain run to run if a little detail goes one way or the other. Even this pattern...its gone EXACTLY the way I thought from weeks ago...but now some really subtle discreet details that you can't possibly see or worry about from 2 weeks away will determine if the foot of snow ends up being in PA or DC or Richmond. And now those details start to matter a lot and drive us crazy every run. You’ve been honking about the 1/28 time period for a while, so all the credit in the world to you. Gotta admit that those early rain panels scared me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, GEOS5ftw said: Biggest concern I have with the GFS is that the primary low from Monday hangs around in PA which prevents any cold from draining into our area. There's really no CAD ahead of the system. So we rely on dynamic cooling as the low bombs out. Canadian looks like it is weaker and faster with the early week system and has more of a classic CAD setup. Big differences apparent at 96 hrs. We don’t want to hear why that whacky azz GFS solution is wrong. We just want to hear how we can get 20” of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Canadian is like a 6-10" event....colder than GFS....the first event is colder too...would be like a 1-3" event for western burbs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Here you go guys 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Damn! The CMC is so close to phasing in the PV on the backside of the trof now. I dont think any other model is showing this tho. Get that negative tilt a bit sooner and boom even more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The gfs is just whacked. And I don’t buy it for a second. But I really want to lol Lol if GFS is correct we are above seasonal climo with all of February and March to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 CMC a bit more realistic and a nice hit for all..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Canadian is like a 6-10" event....colder than GFS....the first event is colder too...would be like a 1-3" event for western burbs 90% chance you say Next tonight at 1:20am 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 What happens when you drop 2' snow on 1" encrusted ice sounds like B disaster movie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Noticeably colder than the gfs. Obvs not as whacked out deep like the GFS was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: a 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: yea thats not going to work for me. I want it all or nothing. I didnt wait 2 months for a 2-4 inch event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Yall don't listen. Go to Bed on a good note. We know what's coming. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Yall don't listen. Go to Bed on a good note. We know what's coming. No doubt in my mind either. Nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Go to bed NOW. Haha common these are the nights we wait all summer for. The cmc being this good tells me this is legit. Let’s take it on the chin and see what euro does. If Ukie comes north I’m all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yall don't listen. Go to Bed on a good note. We know what's coming. Locking in now, just as I said this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Again...I think we are very possibly in the very very narrow "sweet spot" for this one. But this illustrates my point...we needed a north adjustment...but if you payed attention to the whole setup we really didnt have a lot of wiggle room with the thermal boundary to begin with. So we get a north adjustment and suddenly rain becomes an issue again. No margin for error either way. Luckly I think we might be in the razor thin "win" zone for this one. But damnit it can't keep being this difficult or we are rarely ever going to win. Pretty textbook HP there though. If that is accurate I won't worry about temps at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Guys, if you zoom in by region...we don't have blue over us at 138. It's purple. Ji is gonna be pissed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: Noticeably colder than the gfs. Obvs not as whacked out deep like the GFS was. GGEM looks great. Considering DC hasn’t seen more than an 1” of snow in over 2 years, not sure how anyone can scoff at the GGEM solution showing 7-10” (except Ji). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Gefs looks north Looks juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 CMC is showing 12 to 20 inches across southern MD, Northern Neck and central Eastern Shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s a razor thin line guys. The thermals are iffy. There’s just no cold on this side of the globe. Sorry, couldn’t resist Sorry I was past out during the earlier mega-weenieness. I’m late to the game, but how are the soil temps? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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