psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Wish I could get excited...hard to without eps on board The euro isn’t flawless. You realize we’re still at the range when it was giving DC 20” of snow back in December. One of the storms in 2018 it was giving me 8” of snow literally 12 hours from the storm and I got NOTHING lol. What’s odd is they are both opposite their biases right now. But this isn’t a typical gulf wave to coastal setup. The upper low is coming across pretty far north and it’s interacting with the NS flow some on the way across and that’s the driver here not the southern stream wave it links up with in the southeast. I wonder if that has to do with why they are opposite their tendencies. I also wonder if the NS interaction matters more here and if that might not favor the gfs some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: 850s never go below -1 even in S DE, and are colder than that for a fair bit of the storm. I'm guessing it's just GFS being weird with snow output. It’s the surface, it’s torched early on (talking for S DE), not that I’d trust gfs thermals ever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Question for those more informed. What causes the ULL to push SE? We could jack if it heads due East instead of SE. Look to the NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Sweet.It’ll be tucked into the mouth of the Potomac soon 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: The euro isn’t flawless. You realize we’re still at the range when it was giving DC 20” of snow back in December. One of the storms in 2018 it was giving me 8” of snow literally 12 hours from the storm and I got NOTHING lol. What’s odd is they are both opposite their biases right now. But this isn’t a typical gulf wave to coastal setup. The upper low is coming across pretty far north and it’s interacting with the NS flow some on the way across and that’s the driver here not the southern stream wave it links up with in the southeast. I wonder if that has to do with why they are opposite their tendencies. I also wonder if the NS interaction matters more here and if that might not favor the gfs some. Totally agree. It also has some support with icon, cmc so it’s not totallY on an island. Good Points though it’s like a Miller A/B 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Maybe I'm missing something, but this is barely even double digits, if that, for most. Would not call it a crush job. It needs to stay tucked more NW so it snows much longer. Duration is just too short. It's trying to get there, though. Well I guess relatively speaking most anything this year is a "crush job"!! And yeah, it is sort of getting there. But the thing is, comparing to the 12Z GFS this is a notable shift north with the precipitation and snow, from what I see. We were on the very northern edge of any real snow then, it was close (and everyone was all excited at that trend at 12Z). It appears to have trended that way through all of today's cycles. Besides, it's far better than the huge letdown the Euro and EPS gave us this afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Maybe I'm missing something, but this is barely even double digits, if that, for most. Would not call it a crush job. It needs to stay tucked more NW so it snows much longer. Duration is just too short. It's trying to get there, though. You realize that everything is relative, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 22 minutes ago, CAPE said: Lookin PD1-ish? Thanks PSU. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You realize that everything is relative, right? "Barely even double digits" qualifies as a crush job this and any other year around here. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 16 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Maybe I'm missing something, but this is barely even double digits, if that, for most. Would not call it a crush job. It needs to stay tucked more NW so it snows much longer. Duration is just too short. It's trying to get there, though. Yeah. I guess I should have stipulated based on where you live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I’m at the LOL stage with both systems next week. Who the hell knows. And if we are all honest that probably sums up how we all feel. But that run was sweet. Only double digits though. Not really a crush job. Need triple digits for that. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 We should be happy with GEFS. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m at the LOL stage with both systems next week. Who the hell knows. And if we are all honest that probably sums up how we all feel. But that run was sweet. Only double digits though. Not really a crush job. Need triple digits for that. I need MINIMUM triple digits for me to be interested. If snow totals aren't the equivalent of the price of a used '09 VW Passat, I'm out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: We should be happy with GEFS. @leesburg 04, looks like the cat ate a smurf. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: I need MINIMUM triple digits for me to be interested. If snow totals aren't the equivalent of the price of a used '09 VW Passat, I'm out. Would that even make double digits?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Would that even make double digits?? At least a thousand. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Not bad but not quite the crushing that 12z was. This includes Monday’s “event”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I need MINIMUM triple digits for me to be interested. If snow totals aren't the equivalent of the price of a used '09 VW Passat, I'm out. Did I accidentally wander into the Snoqualmie Pass subforum? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Oh no not another AO block, make it stop, the humanity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The 18Z GFS sure is encouraging. It's not back to yesterday's Euro, but gives me 11". 14 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Nobody mentioned but that first round has .5" of freezing rain through MD. .5" and above is defined as "crippling". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 32 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Not bad but not quite the crushing that 12z was. This includes Monday’s “event”. woah--major drop. Looks like alot of members now agree with european Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 22 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Oh no not another AO block, make it stop, the humanity! Charge your phone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ji said: woah--major drop. Looks like alot of members now agree with european p11 FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Lookin PD1-ish? PD1-------those are very lofty words with the old timers, the best blizzard ever for the low lands near the bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Not bad ....Bring it nw 75 miles for N.Md NOPE leave it where it is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 25 minutes ago, Ji said: woah--major drop. Looks like alot of members now agree with european Not for the reason you think. Gefs shifted north quite a bit. This captures most of the event. Look where the max is centered now. Mean qpf did drop slightly in central VA but because there is slightly more spread where members place the max precip. And the nature of this setup with the extreme compressed flow to the NE but with the upper low causing the system coming west to east pretty far north means it’s a fairly narrow zone of high impact. Not like a typical climbing the coast event. But the spread increased to the north. There are now several members that get good snow north of Philly when almost none did before. And the snow mean decreased in VA for the opposite reason as the euro. RAIN lol. Its hard with timing differences to catch them all in one panel but there are a cluster of members that are so amped it in most or all of VA. There are even a couple members that give me rain. And some that come across so far north it miller b’s us and we’re pretty dry. I count 11 flush hit members for the DC area. I count 9 members that are either south or weak but I count 10 members where snow is limited because it’s too far north and rains or simply jumps over us because the upper low comes across too north to hook up with the southern wave until too late for us. So the threat of a miss to the north is now the greater probability on the gefs. So it may have decreased snow totals in VA but not for the same reason as the eps. It trended a little too amped in some members! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This probability map also shows it. You had about a 45% chance of getting 3”+ at 12z and you still do at 18z. The difference was at 12z the 55% choice you didn’t was almost exclusively from a miss south. Now your equally likely for it to miss north. 18z 12z there is more spread now due to a cluster of north track members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Anyone looking at 18z Euro for trends on the strength of the low getting ejected from out west? Or was it bad so we did not see it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Anyone looking at 18z Euro for trends on the strength of the low getting ejected from out west? Or was it bad so we did not see it? it’s a little too soon to make definitive projections when it ends at 90. EPS goes to 144 but not out yet. the energy that will become the storm along the UT AZ border is closed and more consolidated that’s good Imo. The wave in the Ohio valley is a little more progressive creating more space. Slightly more ridging ahead. That’s good. I have no idea what to make of the TPV being further south in Canada. If the euro still rotates it north like previous runs it’s irrelevant. If it gets in behind it could help. If it comes across on top it would hurt. Overall I would take the 18z over the 12z look but it’s hard to say that early. Anyone else wanna chime in? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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