psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 You can tell with this very early when it ejects to the plains. This is not a system that will amplify at the upper levels on the east coast. It needs to be amplifying and pumping ridging with a healthy surface low in the Midwest. If it’s a weak wave coming off the Rockies it’s game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: How has the GFS performed lately compared to the Euro? it dosent matter. Whatever model has the worst outcome is the usually the one that wins 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: You can tell with this very early when it ejects to the plains. This is not a system that will amplify at the upper levels on the east coast. It needs to be amplifying and pumping ridging with a healthy surface low in the Midwest. If it’s a weak wave coming off the Rockies it’s game over. well its game over then because Euro is not going to falter witthis this SW thats only 78 hours out from ejecting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: The euro and ukie are all by themselves. I don't buy their solutions. Maybe if those models were more reliable but they have lost some of their reliability. How can two models be by themselves? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 When I came up with the name Dr. No for the Euro, I had no idea how much of tool of despair it truly is. No model, and I mean NO model kills the mood better and quicker. 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: You can tell with this very early when it ejects to the plains. This is not a system that will amplify at the upper levels on the east coast. It needs to be amplifying and pumping ridging with a healthy surface low in the Midwest. If it’s a weak wave coming off the Rockies it’s game over. we dont have a luxury of saying this is still 7 days away because really its 3 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: How can two models be by themselves? They're outliers. All the other models are further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Well...at least in the Euro case we don't have to deal with seeing snow south of us...so if we gotta fail then this is a better way for me, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: When I came up with the name Dr. No for the Euro, I had no idea how much of tool of despair it truly is. No model, and I mean NO model kills the mood better and quicker. when the GFS and other JV models show a snowstorm and we get all giddy at Lunch...the euro always spoils the snow. Then when the GFS and other JV models so no snow....and ruin our lunch....the Euro gives us a mercy run....before destroying us and caving to the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: They're outliers. All the other models are further north. when it comes to big East coast snowstorms...you dont want to the euro to be an outlier 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Ji said: when it comes to big East coast snowstorms...you dont want to the euro to be an outlier then UGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: well its game over then because Euro is not going to falter witthis this SW thats only 78 hours out from ejecting 1 minute ago, Ji said: we dont have a luxury of saying this is still 7 days away because really its 3 days away It was an improvement from 0z. The track of the upper feature is perfect. It dies but follow the precip associated with that and it’s headed right for us. Problem is it was too weak. But that’s not some huge change. It needs to be slightly more amplified with that exact track. The surface low is a response to arhat upper low do don’t worry about that. If that upper feature was stronger you get a stronger more tucked surface low and that precip coming from the west doesn’t die. There is a critical mass type level of amplitude the wave has to reach and this run was just a bit under it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: It was an improvement from 0z. The track of the upper feature is perfect. It dies but follow the precip associated with that and it’s headed right for us. Problem is it was too weak. But that’s not some huge change. It needs to be slightly more amplified with that exact track. The surface low is a response to arhat upper low do don’t worry about that. If that upper feature was stronger you get a stronger more tucked surface low and that precip coming from the west doesn’t die. There is a critical mass type level of amplitude the wave has to reach and this run was just a bit under it. Now I was wondering if it was an improvement...because that run a bit of snow still got up here, right? I thought that was still better than 0z as well...but I thought it was just my snow weenie brain trying to find something, lol I guess tonight's 0z is gonna be telling if we see the euro trend better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now I was wondering if it was an improvement...because that run a bit of snow still got up here, right? I thought that was still better than 0z as well...but I thought it was just my snow weenie brain trying to find something, lol I guess tonight's 0z is gonna be telling if we see the euro trend better... Debatable as I’m looking at it more. That track was north. It didn’t miss is south it just died. But the wave was a bit weaker and faster which offset. Those trends need to stop though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 WB 12z EURO v 0Z, better but not good enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It was an improvement from 0z. The track of the upper feature is perfect. It dies but follow the precip associated with that and it’s headed right for us. Problem is it was too weak. But that’s not some huge change. It needs to be slightly more amplified with that exact track. The surface low is a response to arhat upper low do don’t worry about that. If that upper feature was stronger you get a stronger more tucked surface low and that precip coming from the west doesn’t die. There is a critical mass type level of amplitude the wave has to reach and this run was just a bit under it. One of the problems that is just as important as the weaker ridge behind it is the upper pattern over New England won't allow enough room for a shortwave ridge to form ahead of the trough which keeps it from strengthening and in a sense shears it a bit while also reducing the upper level divergence in advance of the trough compared to what would happen with more room and a better shortwave ridge. That prevents our surface low from getting very far north. At least that's my take. Weaken or shove the troughiness over the northeast a little farther east and we'd be OK. At least I think we'd be OK. Slow the eastward movement of the trof would help do the same thing. 10 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 52 minutes ago, Ji said: the best model to see how we are going to do is the NC subforums Looking forward to the shut out, at least the yard wont be muddy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, usedtobe said: One of the problems that is just as important as the weaker ridge behind it is the upper pattern over New England won't allow enough room for a shortwave ridge to form ahead of the trough which keeps it from strengthening and in a sense shears it a bit while also reducing the upper level divergence in advance of the trough compared to what would happen with more room and a better shortwave ridge. That prevents our surface low from getting very far north. At least that's my take. Weaken or shove the troughiness over the northeast a little farther east and we'd be OK. At least I think we'd be OK. Slow the eastward movement of the trof would help do the same thing. The biggest change in the euro from 3 runs ago when it had that very nice solution is it sped up the wave each of the last 2 runs tightening the spacing in front of it. The gfs and cmc ensembles (which both bullseye our area) have a slower progression so they are able to get more ridging ahead of the wave as it crosses the Midwest. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 14 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: The euro and ukie are all by themselves. I don't buy their solutions. Maybe if those models were more reliable but they have lost some of their reliability. I don't understand this sentiment of lost reliability. Euro still crushes all in anomaly correlation extremely consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 We need some good news. Cmc ensembles. biggest difference I see compared with the euro is a slower progression. Cmc ensembles even hints the initial wave in the south might escape and the storm forms along a second wave as the upper low slowly advances. The euro races it across before the flow has a chance to relax behind the early week system 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 UsedTube is back! Love it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 hopefully EPS will deliver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: UsedTube is back! Love it. Well occasionally. Unfortunately, the Euro ensemble mean for the 28th looks pretty bad. I haven't given up on the 28th but would feel better if the Euro and UKMET were on my side than the Canadian and GFS. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Very noticeable step back from 0z on the EPS. It certainly favors a further south track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z EPS.. yeah it doesn't look good. Too far south. The model with the overamped bias is the furthest south. Lemme tell ya folks, I hate to say it, but this probably isn't gonna end up how we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Very noticeable step back from 0z on the EPS. It certainly favors a further south track. Seems to diverge from the op, which wasn’t south. It was just weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, usedtobe said: occasionally Occasionally may be about the most healthy amount of time to be on this board in the winter...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The wettest panel is.. quite the slouch to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I mean is it snow for anyone or just some weak dry heave like a cat bringing up a fur ball? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: I mean is it snow for anyone or just some weak dry heave like a cat bringing up a fur ball? It’s snow, just not that much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts