osfan24 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, IronTy said: Please baby jesus... Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Toss. Just threatening to pull out my lucky shirt has the models falling in line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Notice...the GEFS have not shifted that NE wall to the precip running through central NJ at all the last few runs...but are tightening up the precip south of that line. That is about what I expect in the end. Somewhere between Philly and NYC is going to be a very very sharp cutoff and south of that gets a good snow and north is smokin cirrus So could you explain again your confidence that the cutoff sets up there and why it's less risk that it sets up south of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 WB 12Z GEFS 6 inch probability at 7 days... 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 ^^^ This is my biggest takeaway from the 12z run. Lots of members get us on the board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS 6 inch probability at 7 days... this is the first time all winter that the higher probability contours are actually in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Probability maps lol... why the cutoff from west to east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Probability maps lol... why the cutoff from west to east? A couple members don’t quite have the thermals at lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Why are my odds of getting >1 inch the same as my odds of getting > 6 inches? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: Why are my odds of getting >1 inch the same as my odds of getting > 6 inches? lol Same here. Maybe because one map is total snowfall and one is 24 hr snowfall? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitecheddar Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 so my question is.. what do we want the first storm on the 25th to do to make the 2nd wave more likely give us a direct hit? cause if i have to give up frozen on mon/tue to get shaalacked by the second storm.. then im willing to make that sacrifice to the weather weenie gods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 16 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: Why are my odds of getting >1 inch the same as my odds of getting > 6 inches? lol The first map Weather Will posted includes the storm on the 25th/26th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 the best model to see how we are going to do is the NC subforums 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I'm liking a lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 38 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So could you explain again your confidence that the cutoff sets up there and why it's less risk that it sets up south of us? The latitude the wave is coming across, the amount of ridging, where the confluence is, and history of these setups. That doesn’t mean it cannot happen. There was a storm in 1980 in a somewhat similar look that fringed us. But that’s pretty rare. The gfs jumps the upper low southeast to phase with the coastal. That part looks overdone. If the wave is amplifying my guess is that process happens without as much of a sink south among the coast and that tucks the low in a little further north. The threat of it going south is a weaker wave that’s de amplifying and in that case given the flow it’s likely to get crushed way south. I think the in between option is less likely. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I cant see the euro being like the gfs or cmc from what im seeing so far through 117, it sped up the wave idk if itll have any room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Some of the guidance has suggested the potential for a moderate to significant snowfall (4" or more snow) in and around Richmond next week. An AO-/PNA- pattern is a favorable pattern for snow events in Richmond. Since 1950, there have been 24 days on which 2" or more snow fell during the January 20-February 10, 1950-2020 period in Richmond. Based on the AO/PNA states, the breakdown was as follows: AO-/PNA-: 25% AO-/PNA+: 46% AO+/PNA-: 4% AO+/PNA+: 17% AO-: 71% AO+: 29% PNA-: 29% PNA+: 71% Below is a bubble chart showing the distribution of such days, with bubble size based on the amount of snowfall. The AO and PNA are forecast to be negative through the remainder of January. Richmond's largest snowstorms during the above January 20-February 10, 1950-2020 timeframe were: 6.4", February 7, 1979 (AO: -1.696; PNA: -1.080) 5.6", January 22-23, 1954 (AO: -0.082; PNA: -0.747) 5.3", February 2, 1972 (AO: -1.896; PNA: -1.097) In addition, a storm brought 3.0" on January 20, 2000 during an AO-/PNA- state. A much larger snowstorm occurred shortly thereafter. The three largest AO-/PNA- storms also brought accumulating snowfall to to Washington, DC: January 22-23, 1954: 6.4" February 2, 1972: 3.4" February 7, 1979: 5.6" Only one of those storms brought more than 1.0" snow as far north as New York City: the February 7, 1979 storm, which brought 5.0" to Central Park. 5 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Euro does not look good so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: I cant see the euro being like the gfs or cmc from what im seeing so far through 117, it sped up the wave idk if itll have any room No it’s not gonna do it. Wave is weaker. And faster which is no good because it’s coming across before ridging can really get going behind the Tuesday wave. That’s the biggest difference the last 2 euro runs v the one that had a good outcome yesterday 12z. Weaker wave and faster so less ridging in between it and the departing wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: I cant see the euro being like the gfs or cmc from what im seeing so far through 117, it sped up the wave idk if itll have any room I think with the euro upgrades in an effort to rid the Southwest bias of holding back shortwaves and energy it is notably overcompensating in the MR/LR these days and has been too fast at times with the stj coming out of the Southwest. Likely one of the many reasons the model isn't quite as reliable as it once was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Sigh. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: No it’s not gonna do it. Wave is weaker. And faster which is no good because it’s coming across before ridging can really get going behind the Tuesday wave. That’s the biggest difference the last 2 euro runs v the one that had a good outcome yesterday 12z. Weaker wave and faster so less ridging in between it and the departing wave. this is incredibly frustrating. ALl the good that happened at 12z is now vanished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Very similar to what the UKIE showed an hour ago. As mentioned, just a weaker wave in the beginning which leads to suppressed look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 How has the GFS performed lately compared to the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: Sigh. That looks vaguely familiar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 A few days ago Euro was also leading the way in crushing us with snow on Monday. So it’s not infallible. Let’s see what EPS has to say. Of course the Euro is always right when it shows no snow. EDIT: Euro also seems a bit better than 0z, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, ryanconway63 said: How has the GFS performed lately compared to the Euro? Whichever one has shown no snow has been money - so lately the GFS has been killing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The euro and ukie are all by themselves. I don't buy their solutions. Maybe if those models were more reliable but they have lost some of their reliability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Seems like the GFS has been leading the way lately but I may be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: this is incredibly frustrating. ALl the good that happened at 12z is now vanished We still have the JMA on the verge of bigger things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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