Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Well the NAM made a slight adjustment of its low position LOL Nice clipper in the Midwest at the end of the NAM. I would be thrilled with a 1-3"/2-4" cold smoke clipper system 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Nice clipper in the Midwest at the end of the NAM. I would be thrilled with a 1-3"/2-4" cold smoke clipper system NAMs both made quite a change to the Friday-Sat deal. Wondering if further changes may be in store. The block seems to really be doing a number on that low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Really nice vort pass on the 19th but no surface reflection. If we’re looking for some dark horse long shot to pop up short range that could be the one. Wouldn’t take much surface reflection to at least create a minor event out of that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Hey what's the Buffalo precip looking like for Saturday evening? Given it's relevance to many in this forum...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 This clipper behind the departing storm (moving into the 50/50) is not surprisingly starting to dig more in response to the PNA ridge flexing more. Take it for what it is worth at range, but the NAM likes the chances for this one and shows potential. Verbatim these maps are honking tbh. But again, NAM at range. As I have been saying LR tracking will likely fail us this year whereas threats are more likely to pop in the short/medium range due to the chaotic fast NS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 6z GFS has a similar evolution with the departing low taking 50-50 spot forcing the clipper south but its so dry. Who knows. Nothing really at surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: 6z GFS has a similar evolution with the departing low taking 50-50 spot forcing the clipper south but its so dry. Who knows. Nothing really at surface. I'm hugging the EURO for late next week and hoping the blocking does its thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 It’s a wait and see game right now. Models still varying on timing of northern and southern stream. How much energy gets buried in southwest. When/how far S does NS get. All will play a factor. Like the pattern but feel like bad timing could also screw things up a bit. Hopefully not. I thought my 76ers were getting James Harden yesterday and look what happened! Lol...can your wizards trade us Bradley Beal instead please thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 31 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I agree. Looking at h5 I'd think at least a light event . Here's the latest Gefs . Looks like none of the members dig quite enough south to pull any kind of moisture from the south and the ull energy by itself isn't sparking much if any surface reflection. Maby it'll moisten up as we near .If we had some more spacing from the departing low maybe that would energize things better as well and allow more amplification . This is Probably more of a factor then west ridging I'd think. Yeah, this situation is not ideal. Clipper trajectory is great BUT normally clippers have a departing PV with antecedent arctic air in place to squeeze out every drop of precip from the atmosphere. We don't have that luxury this time which is likely part of what is causing the low surface precip reflection. Maybe we can at least manage a stripe of coating type stuff somewhere but who knows. Eta: yet another example of how a pattern can look great but lack of cold air is killing us. Clipper patterns should produce in mid-late Jan even in the lamest winters. This is rock bottom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I still think Saturday (outside the mountains) could surprise some with snow TV. It's something at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 29 minutes ago, nj2va said: I still think Saturday (outside the mountains) could surprise some with snow TV. It's something at least. Few mood flakes on WB 12Z GFS make it east of the mountains overnight Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 10:19 AM, nj2va said: I still think Saturday (outside the mountains) could surprise some with snow TV. It's something at least. Thoughts on the mountain upslope being shown? Maybe 6-12" by mid week? I'm heading out tomorrow for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, mdhokie said: Thoughts on the mountain upslope being shown? Maybe 6-12" by mid week? I'm heading out tomorrow for a week You’re missing the party in the Obs thread. Snowing here now. Yeah 6-12” seems like a good call...I’d think we’re on the higher end of that come Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 ICON throws some light some light snow on Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 This thread might be busy soon. If it is then party time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, H2O said: This thread might be busy soon. If it is then party time Excellent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Excellent we have been 7 days out for 17 straight days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 50 minutes ago, Ji said: we have been 7 days out for 17 straight days You missed the reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Excellent Chya! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 hours ago, H2O said: This thread might be busy soon. If it is then party time Party on dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 50 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Party on dude You’ll be at the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Party on dude You still got the bus??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 If next week is going to be “it” my guess is sometime in the next 48 hours we see a run where the majority of guidance converges on that look. Will it be tonight??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: If next week is going to be “it” my guess is sometime in the next 48 hours we see a run where the majority of guidance converges on that look. Will it be tonight??? Wednesday 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You still got the bus??? Its still being repaired. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Avdave said: Its still being repaired. You came back just to troll me. MFer. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 hour ago, H2O said: You’ll be at the party Wish I had some premium scotch to bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You still got the bus??? Yeah, but it's in the garage on bricks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 26 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You came back just to troll me. MFer. Love you brother and miss the hell out of you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 Use this thread for discussing the 25-26th storm threat starting now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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