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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Nice clipper in the Midwest at the end of the NAM. I would be thrilled with a 1-3"/2-4" cold smoke clipper system

NAMs both made quite a change to the Friday-Sat deal. Wondering if further changes may be in store. The block seems to really be doing a number on that low

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This clipper behind the departing storm (moving into the 50/50) is not surprisingly starting to dig more in response to the PNA ridge flexing more. Take it for what it is worth at range, but the NAM likes the chances for this one and shows potential.

namconus_z500_vort_us_51.png

namconus_z500a_us_53.png

Verbatim these maps are honking tbh. But again, NAM at range. As I have been saying LR tracking will likely fail us this year whereas threats are more likely to pop in the short/medium range due to the chaotic fast NS.

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It’s a wait and see game right now. Models still varying on timing of northern and southern stream. How much energy gets buried in southwest. When/how far S does NS get. All will play a factor. Like the pattern but feel like bad timing could also screw things up a bit. Hopefully not. I thought my 76ers were getting James Harden yesterday and look what happened! Lol...can your wizards trade us Bradley Beal instead please thanks!

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31 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I agree. Looking at h5 I'd think at least a light event . Here's the latest Gefs . Looks like none of the members dig quite enough south to pull any kind of moisture from the south and the ull energy by itself isn't sparking much if any surface reflection.  Maby it'll moisten up as we near .If we had some more spacing from the departing low maybe that would energize things better as well and allow more amplification . This is Probably more of a factor then west ridging I'd think. 

f96.gif

Yeah, this situation is not ideal. Clipper trajectory is great BUT normally clippers have a departing PV with antecedent arctic air in place to squeeze out every drop of precip from the atmosphere. We don't have that luxury this time which is likely part of what is causing the low surface precip reflection. Maybe we can at least manage a stripe of coating type stuff somewhere but who knows. 

Eta: yet another example of how a pattern can look great but lack of cold air is killing us. Clipper patterns should produce in mid-late Jan even in the lamest winters. This is rock bottom.

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