JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Thermals are starting to give way outside of the mountains. Not sure if it's workable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, H2O said: NC? LOL yes. Thought this was bringing a foot there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Vice-Regent said: Thermals are starting to give way outside of the mountains. Not sure if it's workable. shut up, Chuck 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GEFS aren't buying what the CMC is selling wrt the TPV lobe to the North. Totally different looks in Canada. Looking forward to the GEPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GEFS looks sweet. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Of course the ukie got worst. lol. Once again, TPV placement way different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 @stormtracker You're gonna LUV the GEFS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The CMC was close to a complete monster had it phased that tpv lobe in a little more....OMG Yeah, CMC is getting closer and it was great because we get snow on snow on snow in a week, BUT I still think this system has so much more potential than it showed. It only snows a max of like 12 hours over us. Get it to tilt negative and tuck a bit farther northwest and crawl away and then we are talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The clustering to the N and W speaks volumes 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Woop there it is. Lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS aren't buying what the CMC is selling wrt the TPV lobe to the North. Totally different looks in Canada. Looking forward to the GEPS. 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: GEFS looks sweet. Just can’t get any better than this 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: @stormtracker You're gonna LUV the GEFS. GEFS are different in Canada but still a massive hit with some wiggle room and upside still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS are different in Canada but still a massive hit with some wiggle room and upside still. We don’t live in Canada. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Just can’t get any better than this Exactly....2 completely different UA looks and still 2 solidly acceptable outcomes. This one has more going for it than most recent systems have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Let me also add that the UKIE has been atrocious at this range this year it seems. I probably wouldnt have said that if it showed a hit though, LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @stormtracker You're gonna LUV the GEFS. Yup. I just saw it. I'm putting all my chips in 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: True...but those factors can often time lead to there being a very heavy banding along the northern fringe as the lift meets the resistance in the flow. Globals often miss that and its why a lot of times you get a "shift north" at the last minute. The storm didnt actually shift north the models simply didnt see that feature. No doubt there can be some intense banding with the type of explosive non-linear cyclogenesis this setup can produce, just warning in advance of the (likely sharp) cutoff. You're either in it or you're not type deal. One thing to watch in the globals is where the sloped f-gen zone intersects the DGZ or maxima higher in the column that can overwhelm dry layers. Sometimes, in the scenario you reference, a good indicator of misplaced banding can be teased out of looking at cross sections. We're a few days away from being able to talk about that realistically, but something to look for. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS are different in Canada but still a massive hit with some wiggle room and upside still. Notice...the GEFS have not shifted that NE wall to the precip running through central NJ at all the last few runs...but are tightening up the precip south of that line. That is about what I expect in the end. Somewhere between Philly and NYC is going to be a very very sharp cutoff and south of that gets a good snow and north is smokin cirrus 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 est panel out of them. Pretty great 12z suite so far. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, csnavywx said: No doubt there can be some intense banding with the type of explosive non-linear cyclogenesis this setup can produce, just warning in advance of the (likely sharp) cutoff. You're either in it or you're not type deal. One thing to watch in the globals is where the sloped f-gen zone intersects the DGZ or maxima higher in the column that can overwhelm dry layers. Sometimes, in the scenario you reference, a good indicator of misplaced banding can be teased out of looking at cross sections. We're a few days away from being able to talk about that realistically, but something to look for. The GEFS might already be seeing that a bit. The last few runs the very sharp northern edge of the precip has not moved much...running through central NJ and PA...but the precip is increasing south of that line tightening the gradient. That seems right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just can’t get any better than this lol, yeah I saw it too, but just let it go. Poor fella Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 What a Big Euro run this will be..... been a while since we have been able to track a big storm with all 3 major models on board 5-6 days out.... I wont sleep much this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 That was a HUGE difference in track on the GEFS, and a majority of members are tucked in between the OBX and Norfolk. Much more consolidated signal too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Wow...best run of the GEFS. Snow mean almost 6" through the cooridoor with more out west. A beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: What a Big Euro run this will be..... been a while since we have been able to track a big storm with all 3 major models on board 5-6 days out.... I wont sleep much this weekend Biggest Euro run of the year! Now, where is my bingo card?.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Please baby jesus... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Man what an absolute mauling on the 12z suite thus far! When do you guys think continuity kicks in by Monday? @CAPE @yoda @psuhoffman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 If Cape May gets more effing snow than me I effing quit this effing stupid ass effing hobby. Thermals too warm blah blah blah 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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