psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So do you think DC is the N brick wall with this one? no that is VERY rare... I think this goes one of two ways...if the wave is weak and not washing out it ends up a NC "event". If the wave is amplifying I think from Philly south is good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know this sounds contradictory...but imo its all about the health of that upper level system in the Ohio valley. If that is amplified enough I do expect some north adjustment towards gametime. But I bet it goes one way or the other. If the upper level wave is too weak and starts to shear out this will trend south...and end up not even that close. If it is healthy enough to pump ridging in front it will amplify enough that it will trend north SLIGHTLY. So long as its not a shearing out mess as it comes across my bet is it trends slightly north...but this isn't a setup that argues way north...if DC is being fringed we are good...if richmond is being fringed...uh oh. But I don't see a close south miss with an amplified wave to be a high risk...this is either going to wash out and be a weak NC system or amplify and we are good. I'm psyched with one of those scenarios and good with the other. If we can't get it I'd rather south not get it either, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Yeah, CMC is better than the GFS and. I'd hit it. 8 to 10 area wide 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 the tpv placement on the cmc allows for it to phase once offshore, this actually has effects on the pattern post the event. CMC has a great setup at the end of its run because of this. It has another snow event on the 1st 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 EDIT: Ninja’d but worthy of a double post. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, CMC is better than the GFS and. I'd hit it. 8 to 10 area wide The CMC was close to a complete monster had it phased that tpv lobe in a little more....OMG 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Good fookin lord 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 One thing to keep in mind is that given the compact nature of the shortwave being progged and the (very) large and dominant ridging to the north with a pretty hefty windfield, I would bet on a sharper northern cutoff with less of a taper. This system is less likely to feature big mixing zones and the more gradual taper-off you get with a big wrapped WCB-type configuration. Sharp R/S and S/nothing lines. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: The CMC was close to a complete monster had it phased that tpv lobe in a little more....OMG We may be a lot closer than we think to at least a MECS. I just wish it would nudge 150 miles north 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, CMC is better than the GFS and. I'd hit it. 8 to 10 area wide 8-10"? Try 10"-16" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Im in Awe at what Im seeing currently.....lets lock this in...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: ugh still waiting for CMC to update on TT its not that impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GEFS coming in way more amplified with the trough ejecting from the Rockies and way more ridging ahead of it so far...lets see... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The CMC was close to a complete monster had it phased that tpv lobe in a little more....OMG If that NS (tpv) lobe placement is correct, just a little more southerly nudge or wobble of that Rex block and we are talking HECS+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: We may be a lot closer than we think to at least a MECS. I just wish it would nudge 150 miles north dude. It was in Macon, GA at 0z. It jumped up so much that its being checked for PEDs. Lets not ask for more nudges north this many days away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: The CMC was close to a complete monster had it phased that tpv lobe in a little more....OMG I am looking at the h5 track after it is off-shore. It looks like the lobe helps to bring the h5 low of our storm northward with the interaction so we want that to happen sooner I assume for the coastal to have a more Northern track closer to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Ji said: its not that impressive check out day 9-10, theres always the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Great day in the morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, H2O said: dude. It was in Macon, GA at 0z. It jumped up so much that its being checked for PEDs. Lets not ask for more nudges north this many days away and with every jump, it stopped in VA. I'm asking for more nudges 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 8-10"? Try 10"-16" I'll stick with what the map shows? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We may be a lot closer than we think to at least a MECS. I just wish it would nudge 150 miles north You really don't want it to say that today or even this weekend do you? Just keep it close by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: I'll stick with what the map shows? Sorry, was talking eastern shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: and with every jump, it stopped in VA. I'm asking for more nudges Fine. We can get old lady crossing street nudges and not bouncer throwing you out of TGIFriday's nudges between now and then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 How’s it look for Wilmington? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, csnavywx said: One thing to keep in mind is that given the compact nature of the shortwave being progged and the (very) large and dominant ridging to the north with a pretty hefty windfield, I would bet on a sharper northern cutoff with less of a taper. This system is less likely to feature big mixing zones and the more gradual taper-off you get with a big wrapped WCB-type configuration. Sharp R/S and S/nothing lines. True...but those factors can often time lead to there being a very heavy banding along the northern fringe as the lift meets the resistance in the flow. Globals often miss that and its why a lot of times you get a "shift north" at the last minute. The storm didnt actually shift north the models simply didnt see that feature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GEFS coming in way more amplified with the trough ejecting from the Rockies and way more ridging ahead of it so far...lets see... GEFS 500mb vort mean is sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: How’s it look for Wilmington? NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @PivotPoint I am sorry I was harsh with you earlier. Something happened that has nothing to do with weather and I took my frustration out on you. You didn't deserve that and I am sorry. I should have explained my meteorological points without the unwarranted personal attack. IMO the representation of the high is an effect of the amplitude and latitude of the trough not a cause. No worries -- and I appreciate you saying that. I consider you one of the best (if not the best) poster on here so I was a little like "???". But it's all good. Oh, and gfs looks much better with a little better heights for our ridge out west and better high position/strength -- does wonders for our storm chances. Here's hoping that my southern track idea is crap, and well get hammered with 12+ and rates -- I love me some good rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, H2O said: Fine. We can get old lady crossing street nudges and not bouncer throwing you out of TGIFriday's nudges between now and then Fair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts