Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Monster HP....noice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: whoa Maybe those tucked 6z GEFS slp plots around VA Beach have some legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GFS run was perfect in every way except slightly too far south with the upper level track. We need to get the primary up into northern KY or southern Ohio and transfer to off VA beach...its simply a little too far south on this run. But the setup is all there...and I would rather need a slight north adjustment to the upper level feature (assuming it is healthy) then a south one. But I do agree with HM this is NOT a setup that argues for some huge north trend. If we need it to trend north 50/100 miles the last 72 hours we are good. If we get to 72 hours and its targetting NC its over. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Congrats C VA on the GFS. DC north looks fringey? Trends and friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The QPF out of that run is absurd.. obviously not all snow for the costal plains but yeah, juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 CMC and GFS differ greatly on placement of that little tpv lobe in canada fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I'm waiting for the real CMC maps. I can't decipher those Atari 2600 B/W graphics. WOnder if it'll get good precip up to us. The GFS is close enough I guess. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 If the CMC jump on board with the GFS here I think this may be the biggest threat we have seen in many years......I guess that's not saying much but still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The CMC is going neg tilt. So close to getting the tpv or a piece of it to interact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: I'm waiting for the real CMC maps. I can't decipher those Atari 2600 B/W graphics. WOnder if it'll get good precip up to us. The GFS is close enough I guess. we have 150 hours to get 100 mile shift north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @PivotPoint I am sorry I was harsh with you earlier. Something happened that has nothing to do with weather and I took my frustration out on you. You didn't deserve that and I am sorry. I should have explained my meteorological points without the unwarranted personal attack. IMO the representation of the high is an effect of the amplitude and latitude of the trough not a cause. Considering you’ve spent hundreds of posts explaining what can and can’t go wrong you’ve been incredibly calm and rational. Safe to say you get a mulligan. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: #rightwherewewantit #northtrend I know this sounds contradictory...but imo its all about the health of that upper level system in the Ohio valley. If that is amplified enough I do expect some north adjustment towards gametime. But I bet it goes one way or the other. If the upper level wave is too weak and starts to shear out this will trend south...and end up not even that close. If it is healthy enough to pump ridging in front it will amplify enough that it will trend north SLIGHTLY. So long as its not a shearing out mess as it comes across my bet is it trends slightly north...but this isn't a setup that argues way north...if DC is being fringed we are good...if richmond is being fringed...uh oh. But I don't see a close south miss with an amplified wave to be a high risk...this is either going to wash out and be a weak NC system or amplify and we are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: we have 150 hours to get 100 mile shift north We just got 200 since 0z 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Seems fine for this range. Would like to see it linger a bit longer. Storm gets in and out pretty quick, which limits boom potential. Just need it to climb the coast a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: The QPF out of that run is absurd.. obviously not all snow for the costal plains but yeah, juicy. Congrats VA. Bullseye a week out, what could possibly go wrong? (Hint: ask SC) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 trying to post cmc pics, but its a big hit 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: we have 150 hours to get 100 mile shift north .67 mile north shift an hour! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: We just got 200 since 0z congrats Montreal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: ...if DC is being fringed we are good...if richmond is being fringed...uh oh. So do you think DC is the N brick wall with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: .67 mile north shift an hour! Is it even possible to drive that fast on I-95?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I'll gladly take the 12Z GFS and call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: trying to post cmc pics, but its a big hit Road trip!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The gfs is 6-10 up to EZF. I don’t need the bullseye but atleast we are not tracking some 50 mile wide Max snow zone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, H2O said: congrats Montreal Absolutely the direction we're heading..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Note, like I said gfs and cmc differ on placement of tpv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: trying to post cmc pics, but its a big hit still looks kinda fringy for us but we have a LOT of time for that last minute north adjustment. It still happens its just only 50/100 miles not 500 miles like in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 CMC crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 ugh still waiting for CMC to update on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: still looks kinda fringy for us but we have a LOT of time for that last minute north adjustment. It still happens its just only 50/100 miles not 500 miles like in the past. Yeah the positive tilt of annoyance. So close to a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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