psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The good news WRT the TPV lobe is at the rate its slowing down EVERY run lately...its probably going to end up to the west of the next wave also and not be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 lol...the GFS is a horrific run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: lol...the GFS is a horrific run cutter suppressed cutter... it knows our climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: cutter suppressed cutter... it knows our climo Growing up in the SE, I never realized the MA had to work so hard to get its snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Seems like the GEFS doesn't agree all too much with the GFS. It's encouraging when the ensembles take a step in the right direction despite the operational taking a step back. Precip/snow maps still rolling out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: Seems like the GEFS doesn't agree all too much with the GFS. It's encouraging when the ensembles take a step in the right direction despite the operational taking a step back. Precip/snow maps still rolling out the op probably just drank Jobu's rum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 35 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Ouch. This looks familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok let me clarify what I meant above before I start a panic....this run of the GFS does not bother me because its the GFS and its all over the place at this range. But...the way it suppressed the storm on THIS run was a more realistic scenario. What I saw on the last few runs didn't bother me at all because it was suppressing the storm for the wrong reasons. So...as long as none of the other guidance trends to a weak pathetic flat wave ejecting out west tonight...we are fine. But if we start to see across guidance a trend weaker with the upper level low coming across that is BAD because that is what is driving this storm. There has to be an amplifying upper level low to our west to pump ridging for this scenario to work. The trough axis is off the east coast and the flow is NW to SE...this isnt a type of setup where a surface low is going to amplify up the coast along the baroclinic boundary. This only works if we have a strong upper level center to our west pumping heights into the confluence to our NE creating a strong inverted trough for a low to amplify along. That won't work if the upper low is weak. But I still don't get how this squares with the concern of us not being cold enough...How, in the disaster scenario you mentioned, would it be cold enough to snow down south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But I still don't get how this squares with the concern of us not being cold enough...How, in the disaster scenario you mentioned, would it be cold enough to snow down south? Dynamically driven...its actually raining on the northern fringe of precip on WV while its snowing in SC on the gfs run...but with incredibly heavy precip and crashing heights under the mid and upper level lows it creates just enough cold to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 44 minutes ago, nj2va said: @Avdave will like this run I want tip rip it off now and sleep with it lol. 15" here. By next Thursday this will in buffalo lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Plenty of RAIN to come by early February. Let's go Leprechauns ....marching into March Forget about it all is lost for the MASent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Plenty of RAIN to come by early February. Let's go Leprechauns ....marching into March Forget about it all is lost for the MASent from my SM-N960U using TapatalkWow horrid run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The costal huggiest panel for the 18z GEFS vs 0z '\ Definite improvement I'd say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Wettest 24hr period on the 0z GEFS vs wettest 24hr period on the 18z GEFS You get the picture. Certainly no south trend on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Octopus Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Ouch. This looks familiar Silver lining to if this verifies is that maybe it staves off the effects of a southeast ridge for a few days? We've seemed to fail with everything else so maybe if we pre-chill our warm sectors we can come up with something.Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Wettest 24hr period on the 0z GEFS vs wettest 24hr period on the 18z GEFS You get the picture. Certainly no south trend on the GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That's actually pretty great agreement lol, I'd imagine that the 18z EPS looked juicier because it had more members subscribing to that idea, while the GEFS is straying from going away from it's op. In terms of an actual big hit in NC like what the op showed, I could only see one run that had an actual decent swath of snow and hit that far south. Far more had no storm at all compared to that, or a storm but it jackpotted us or Central VA, or a super weak storm that dotted snow into NC/VA. Getting near that hr 150 threshold too so hoping more members pick up on the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Euro unfortunately looks like GFS this run...dang, man...tough night. But look, if this is gonna fail, better to know now, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Euro looking kinda weak this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Goodnight, everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Euro looking kinda weak this run. Yep...To think we might end up getting blanked snow-wise next week...wow. Gotta hope and pray we can have another chance in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 What a night. Almost that time... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: it was better then last run lol. But really want to go crazy...the TPV lobe that was supposed to slide across in front of the monday wave and help suppress the flow over top of that wave...and keep it from cutting...slowed down sooo much that not only did it allow that Monday wave to get out in front of it and drive north but its still around and compressing the flow over the top of the storm later in the week. LOL Block working the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: What a night. Almost that time... Radio show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: What a night. Almost that time... what time? throwing in the towel ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 New way to fail. Now it's the DC snow parallelogram. We've reached geometric failure. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 27 minutes ago, IronTy said: New way to fail. Now it's the DC snow parallelogram. We've reached geometric failure. Seems like a slight move north for the 28th maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Is the clustering of strong lows near VA Beach here on the GEFS a reflection of an interted trof behind the main low? UL energy spinning up another slp? Or is there a small glimmer of hope here still with a much slower system as the tpv lobe over Lake Ontario retrogrades and dives into and phases with the system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Seems like a slight move north for the 28th maybe. Definitely was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Are the eps mean total snowfall maps still lots of pinks and blues thru Feb 4? Where is @Weather Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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