Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, H2O said: First one north, second south. I’m........_______ ticked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, H2O said: First one north, second south. I’m........_______ Fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, H2O said: First one north, second south. I’m........_______ Fcuked 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, H2O said: First one north, second south. I’m........_______ stuck in the middle with you 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 good sign. the 6z WW3 showing alot of good wind and wave action. Just need to move that a tick NW 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: good sign. the 6z WW3 showing alot of good wind and wave action. Just need to move that a tick NW When will the black arrows over the water arrive at my house?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 This isn’t a setup like when we’ve missed South recently. The gfs doesn’t have a weak wave off Florida while the euro targets NC and we’re kidding ourselves about “north trend”. The cmc ensembles are targeting just north of us eps right over us and gefs just south. but forget the clown maps look at the setup... this is the most suppressed gefs. But the pattern doesn’t support that. That’s a healthy upper level disturbance (1) and look at where the 50/50 is. This isn’t a case where there is a vortex over or just north of Maine like most of those suppressed examples lately and we are acting like maybe that will somehow relax. The 50/50 is well NE. If it wasn’t for the block so far SW this would likely be a rain problem with that 50/50 location. Look at the latitude of the upper low and the ridging ahead of it. Even on the gefs that doesn’t look suppressed to me. I would think anyone south of the red line is ok. I wouldn’t want to be north of there and the blue line is the “probably smoking cirrus” line. The 18z euro is even more bullish look at the ridging already in front...and that upper low is coming across at a pretty high latitude. There isn’t enough pna ridge to really dig that into the southeast like the last few. I think the eps/geps has the right idea here. Frankly Imo the gefs itself doesn’t really support that much suppression. 10 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 57 minutes ago, mappy said: Getting rain My mud was getting dry 38 minutes ago, Ji said: ticked At least I can find Leesburg on a map 37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Fringed There’s never a south trend when it’s needed and too much north trend when we don’t 34 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Fcuked Can I get a kiss? 25 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: stuck in the middle with you I’m more a joker or a clown. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 When you have a bombing low with a 1040 mb banana high overhead, watch out. If you bring this low another 50 miles north, you open yourself up to very impressive winds. I mean look at this. That is a category 1 hurricane equivalent cyclone. This would mean blizzard conditions closer to the low verbatim. Also, what PSU basically said above, the GEFS's h5 presentation doesn't support suppression. Its OP run is further north, by a good 100 miles or so. I posted a couple pages back a five run trend north with the system on the GFS. The other models have also been showing this. I agree with PSU that this likely won't be some farce north trend like the last two systems. Expect wobbles to continue back and forth until they hone in on a general area of where the LP should go, by 12z Sunday or Monday. I aim to have no more than a 50-100 mile shift in the track between model runs by 12z Sunday. DT said we won't really know fully until after the 25th storm passes, or maybe a little before then. From there we can sweat the details like thermal profile, mesoscale banding, etc. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 CON job model is on board for the 28th. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 mb stronger canadian high on the GFS, at 138. There also appears to be less PNA ridging, it's further west again as well but there's more confluence. We'll see what this run holds but it may be south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Southern slider on the GOOFUS. Snow into northern SC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Craptastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GFS looks way south and weaker ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 @Avdave will like this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Can’t make this stuff up. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Ouch. This looks familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 What a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 too weak... the wave was simply too weak and couldn't amplify at all. Dampened as it came east. We need a healthier wave to eject from that western trough then that. Just the GFS but that run troubled me slightly more then the last few misses to the south because that was at least consistent with itself. If the wave that ejects out west is that weak...it will go south. The other runs were just doing stupid GFS stuff but the storm should have been further north. This run did was it will do IF that wave is actually that weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Ouch. This looks familiar If we're going to fail might as well do it in the most epic way possible!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Ok let me clarify what I meant above before I start a panic....this run of the GFS does not bother me because its the GFS and its all over the place at this range. But...the way it suppressed the storm on THIS run was a more realistic scenario. What I saw on the last few runs didn't bother me at all because it was suppressing the storm for the wrong reasons. So...as long as none of the other guidance trends to a weak pathetic flat wave ejecting out west tonight...we are fine. But if we start to see across guidance a trend weaker with the upper level low coming across that is BAD because that is what is driving this storm. There has to be an amplifying upper level low to our west to pump ridging for this scenario to work. The trough axis is off the east coast and the flow is NW to SE...this isnt a type of setup where a surface low is going to amplify up the coast along the baroclinic boundary. This only works if we have a strong upper level center to our west pumping heights into the confluence to our NE creating a strong inverted trough for a low to amplify along. That won't work if the upper low is weak. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Canadian has our storm at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: Canadian has our storm at least Was just about to post...nice hit on the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Finally a real model doing real model things! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GGEM is weak POS..id rather have no storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Canadian has our storm at least thats not a storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Ji said: GGEM is weak POS..id rather have no storm Haven’t you btched for a month straight about seeing “blue” over your house? GGEM does it. Stop being picky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Haven’t you btched for a month straight about seeing “blue” over your house? GGEM does it. Stop being picky. thats not blue man...thats pathetic 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: thats not blue man...thats pathetic I think it's light teal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: GGEM is weak POS..id rather have no storm it was better then last run lol. But really want to go crazy...the TPV lobe that was supposed to slide across in front of the monday wave and help suppress the flow over top of that wave...and keep it from cutting...slowed down sooo much that not only did it allow that Monday wave to get out in front of it and drive north but its still around and compressing the flow over the top of the storm later in the week. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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