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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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1 hour ago, ryanconway63 said:

GFS is such a joke......Low off SC with mixing issues in Virginia.....smh

 

1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

The r/s line on the GFS should not be that far north, at h168.

Inverted trough which draws moisture NW but also warmth. It’s likely at that range wrong and the low should just be adjusted NW instead of having that string out low along the trough.  With a better closed low but further up the trough we get the moisture but without the warmth surging among the inverted trough unimpeded. Way too far out for those kinds of meso details. 

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Inverted trough which draws moisture NW but also warmth. It’s likely at that range wrong and the low should just be adjusted NW instead of having that string out low along the trough.  With a better closed low but further up the trough we get the moisture but without the warmth surging among the inverted trough unimpeded. Way too far out for those kinds of meso details. 

Gfs also shifted that Tpv westward in Canada. Ukie Looked decent at 144

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Just now, Ji said:

@psuhoffman how madening is this?

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

I think we have AMPLE evidence that we’re losing snowstorms on the margins. We keep seeing crap like that in model runs. Some verify some don’t, but we’ve had multiple rain events over the last 5 years that weren’t perfect but I thought “that should have at least been some snow”.  Doesn’t mean we can’t snow anymore. Just means it’s harder. Maybe the high has to be 1035 instead of 1032 on some similar setup. Or a marginal pac airmass that barely worked for a 32 degree wet snow paste bomb 30 years ago is a 36 degree rain event now.  And yes it’s frustrating. 

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