yoda Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 0z EPS looks essentially the same as previous runs. Still implies a front end thump, but thermals are a tad better than 18z. Snowfall map is almost identical to 12z, ofc there is no way anyone is seeing all snow with that track and the lack of real deal cold in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 well... at least we stay frozen on 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 nice hit for N VA/DC/MD still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 The 6z GFS delivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: well... at least we stay frozen on 06z GFS Yes N MD crush job. But this appears quite the icy mess in the metros. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Love the fact i kept hearing the system is going to be suppressed to far south then it comes north north way north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Yes N MD crush job. But this appears quite the icy mess in the metros. PW says 3 to 5 inches snow and 0.25+" ice... i'd take it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, yoda said: PW says 3 to 5 inches snow and 0.25+" ice... i'd take it Yes WSW criteria for many. Bump it tick south and better. That low s juiced compared to 0z. Another tick north and well you know. But looks like the confluence would make it tough for a solid punch north...I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Interstate said: The 6z GFS delivered. For the northern tier, certainly not for southern MD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: For the northern tier, certainly not for southern MD. You get yours a few days later. See GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Ruin said: Love the fact i kept hearing the system is going to be suppressed to far south then it comes north north way north lol Overunning almost always ends up coming N. Many of us are trying to gauge how much the rex block will play a role in precip shield trajectory and latitudinal advancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Mount Holly's take for the early next week threat. I tend to agree with their general assessment. The main story in the long term is the potential system Monday into Tuesday. Some of the operational models, most notably the Canadian, trended towards the GFS solution showing a track mostly suppressed to the south, progressive, and weakening as it gets to the eastern U.S.. The ECMWF still shows a slower solution with the low crossing over our region. However, I am a bit skeptical of the ECMWF solution as it depicts the southern stream mid level trough lifting northeast as it deepens without phasing with any shortwave trough in the northern stream. This seems like an odd track for this time of year, and quite a departure from what we`ve seen with recent storm tracks. None the less, I`ve stayed close to the previous forecast given the poor agreement between models and from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Mount Holly's take for the early next week threat. I tend to agree with their general assessment. The main story in the long term is the potential system Monday into Tuesday. Some of the operational models, most notably the Canadian, trended towards the GFS solution showing a track mostly suppressed to the south, progressive, and weakening as it gets to the eastern U.S.. The ECMWF still shows a slower solution with the low crossing over our region. However, I am a bit skeptical of the ECMWF solution as it depicts the southern stream mid level trough lifting northeast as it deepens without phasing with any shortwave trough in the northern stream. This seems like an odd track for this time of year, and quite a departure from what we`ve seen with recent storm tracks. None the less, I`ve stayed close to the previous forecast given the poor agreement between models and from run to run. LWX seems more gung ho with their take this morning Quote .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Canadian high pressure will build overhead Sunday, bringing dry and chilly conditions to the region. Low pressure over the central CONUS will likely track nearby or through our area Monday into Tuesday, bringing a chance for wintry precipitation. Although confidence in the exact details remain uncertain at this time, confidence for at least some wintry precipitation has increased over the last couple days. This is because the ensembles of the global guidance has picked up on the threat, and the overall pattern does appear to be favorable for a winter storm to affect our area. The low`s origin will be in the Pacific Ocean, and with an active subtropical jet it should pick up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, a negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and AO (Arctic Oscillation) will favor the development of high pressure to our north. Will continue to monitor over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, yoda said: LWX seems more gung ho with their take this morning Remember Mount Holly forecast domain is very broad from north to south, so when the say 'suppressed', they are favoring precip chances from around Philly southward. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 34 minutes ago, dailylurker said: You get yours a few days later. See GFS The one that crushes Norfolk and leaves me with pity flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 6z euro vs 00z. Looks like a touch more ridging & a slightly stronger main wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: 6z euro vs 00z. Looks like a touch more ridging & a slightly stronger main wave Looks like a carbon copy to me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: The one that crushes Norfolk and leaves me with pity flakes? Yup. The first storm gives us slop and rain and a few days later Norfolk gets its annual cold smoke blizzard while we trip over frozen chunks of mud. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 28 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Yup. The first storm gives us slop and rain and a few days later Norfolk gets its annual cold smoke blizzard while we trip over frozen chunks of mud. At this point I'm willing to use my snow shovel just to scrape frozen leaves off my driveway. If we get 1-2" in SoMD I'll consider that a warning level event. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Nice uptick in probs for early next week storm...good to see! Hopefully it holds today and improves. WB 6Z EPS, 6Z GEFS and 0Z Can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said: 6z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, frd said: how does that compare to 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Anybody got the 6z eps members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 i have 125 feet of wiggle room 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 While we have a break, let’s take a moment to recognize the gfs consistency with this event. Uncanny model. Just simply the best. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Who knows how it goes but I think this has the potential to get bigger. Now who has the DAMN EPS MEMBERS I need my fix 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Who knows how it goes but I think this has the potential to get bigger. Now who has the DAMN EPS MEMBERS I need my fix get out a credit card 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: get out a credit card That means you don’t have them either. Get another guitar gig. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That means you don’t have them either. Get another guitar gig. yea i didnt renew my subscription this year when i heard PSU's winter forecast back in October lol. Plus you snoop around enough on Twitter and the boards and you will find all you need(just now in real time:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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