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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
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49 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep...long ways to go. I just wish I had more time to track this storm  . Been slammed at work . Quick peak early in the morning.  Quick peak around lunch then after work . Working Construction makes it tougher anyway but smart phones have helped :D.  Doesn't seem  long ago I had to wait till I got home to check things on the computer . 

I’m a painter but I say screw it. I end up refreshing the gfs and euro after every roll and brush stroke.

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Yeah but not very much QPF into N MD and BWI region 

Yep...slight shifts take you from bullseye to fringed when the scope is so narrow lol.  Obviously I want it to snow in my yard but if I’m going to get fringed I’d rather it be to the south so at least DC finally gets a hit so I’ll take south. 

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There is a tpv lobe coming across Canada. I remember a wave early March 2014 that was supposed to be a big snow in PA then got suppressed by a tpv lobe coming across Canada.  No two situations are the same but how that interacts has a huge bearing. Runs that partially phase that feature with the NS wave go north. Runs that have no interaction it acts to suppress. 

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Just now, Chris78 said:

Fine with me 5 days out. My concern is this will become a congrats State college. 

Truth is both north and south are equally a threat depending on how it interacts with the TPV. No phasing to pump ridging and it could get suppressed.  Too much interaction and it could cut. And with such a relatively small snow zone it doesn’t take much either way.  The one good thing is when it’s not easy to decide which is the bigger risk (north v south) that often means you’re in a pretty good spot. 

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