Heisy Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL you can? From a pressure map? Maybe you could point them out to me. The isobars are more sheared out around the L and you can see the secondary forming quicker, but idk if that’s a product of a faster shortwave or not. There does seem to be less HP wedging into Ne though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL you can? From a pressure map? Maybe you could point them out to me. Not sure about the confluence, but the low placement is different -- the low on the top map is closer to Ohio, the bottom map shows it at the southwest corner of Indiana/Illinois border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Lol. U guys are too much . 12z 3mb weaker with the primary Less separation with the 50/50 low to the ne on the 12z Both good things in my book Yes but the bigger issue is that northern wave (even with the weaker sheared out version) damages the thermals and the faster southern wave doesn’t allow the cold to build back south in time. That and the but less high pressure in front offsets those other gains you are highlighting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Lol. U guys are too much . 12z 3mb weaker with the primary Less separation with the 50/50 low to the ne on the 12z Both good things in my book That’s just anomaly colors. Look at the actual isobars. There’s very little difference in those maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 There’s a negligible difference in those maps. Different yes but not by much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Not sure about the confluence, but the low placement is different -- the low on the top map is closer to Ohio, the bottom map shows it at the southwest corner of Indiana/Illinois border. That’s one I agree with. We want that low closer to Max any precip into whatever cold air we have. If this was a true cad situation. It might actually hurt in this setup. My head hurts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: H5 . You can see the flatter look over us at 12z Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Anybody got the eps members for this storm? I haven’t seen them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Looks pretty bad, at this time, for the Pittsburgh area. What are the chances we see this slide further south? Obviously, still time for that to happen, but are chances decent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'm personally rooting for a juicy decently strong system but not too amped . I'm fine with a changeover if it's a hard thump to start vs light qpf . Gimme the qpf Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 If this does become a nw track where we need a front end thump one thing to keep an eye on is where the mid level winds are directed. We want the mid level wind max directed to the NE from the low along the warm front. If it’s a more compact circulation there won’t be as much WAA out ahead of it and by the time the precip arrives the mid levels are scorched. That’s not something the guidance will get right this far out. Remember the tease that mid January NW track storm gave us last year at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Hard to say if 18z ICON is any better than 12z....its slower. And for us, verbatim lower heights at 120 but the slower motion could offset that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 18z ICON is a tick south, slower and colder than 12z, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 way way too complicated. Bob Chill and I are out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps 2m temp run to run change 2m temps don’t matter (unless you just want freezing rain) the problem is at the mid levels. Look at the change at 850 during the 2 most crucial times. This is more bad then what you showed is good. Again unless your goal is freezing rain then yay. For the record I don’t like being a deb but the truth is the eps was a step in the wrong direction for snow. It was still better then some guidance and it wasn’t awful but it trended warmer where and when it matters most. Again unless you want ice. If you want some freezing rain it was a good run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: 2m temps don’t matter (unless you just want freezing rain) the problem is at the mid levels. Look at the change at 850 during the 2 most crucial times. This is more bad then what you showed is good. Again unless your goal is freezing rain then yay. For the record I don’t like being a deb but the truth is the eps was a step in the wrong direction for snow. It was still better then some guidance and it wasn’t awful but it trended warmer where and when it matters most. Again unless you want ice. If you want some freezing rain it was a good run. we live in an area where its a win to stay all frozen. We have been what NC was in the Larry cosgrove days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Not often the final solution is 6 days out but we definitely need a reversal in the trends pretty quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: For the record I don’t like being a deb but the truth is the eps was a step in the wrong direction for snow. It was still better then some guidance and it wasn’t awful but it trended warmer where and when it matters most. Again unless you want ice. If you want some freezing rain it was a good run. The snow mean was pretty similar, but I still agree on what you said with the change in the individual members from the EPS. For our region the chances of 1" of snow went up, but the chances of 6" of snow on the EPS went down. I'd imagine this suggests that our ticket to success is the front end thump with way less members holding onto thermals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 18z gfs is a tick 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 NS looks more amped to me than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: NS looks more amped to me than 12z. well try again at 0z with brand new solutions 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 18z gfs is severe outlier so its tossed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 GFS has 0.2 of precip. Euro is 0.8 and CMC is over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 37 minutes ago, Ji said: we live in an area where its a win to stay all frozen. We have been what NC was in the Larry cosgrove days I’m not the judge of what is success. But better is better and worse is worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Man, GFS doubled down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Man, GFS doubled down. So did the Para, but the Para is a Euro-like solution lol. Actually it keeps frozen much closer to us for a fair bit of the storm, wonder how close it is to a really good solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Man, GFS doubled down. Its been complete garbage for anywhere on the east coast for at least the last 3 runs. If it ends up right, I would be a tad surprised, but not shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: So did the Para, but the Para is a Euro-like solution lol. Actually it keeps frozen much closer to us for a fair bit of the storm, wonder how close it is to a really good solution 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Yeah, the para seems to be warm at the start but is slow enough with the southern wave that cold bleeds in and changes most to mix/snow. A little different than the euro front end thump. This sort of evolution isn't common here but to me makes sense with the overall suppressive flow once the NS wave gets out of the way. The whole setup seems pretty sensitive to the relative timing and strength of these 2 features, so I don't think a solution locks in until we are 72 hours out or so. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Para is better than I thought, going from the disco here. I mean, it's not ideal...but enough to keep on keeping on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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