Yeoman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Time to play "the models under-do CAD" card? Next run will show rain in Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, Paleocene said: verbatim we hold the 850s well south during the thump period but those SW winds are uh, cranking in some 850 juice shortly thereafter This is either a step in the path to a worse outcome, or it trends back the other way imo. I am leaning towards the latter based on the overall pattern and the tendencies over the last couple weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 We all know how this storm from the 26th is going to turn out..... the 28th/29th time frame is our time to shine..... 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: The setup argues south, the lack of cold has me doubting. You nailed it earlier we skipped to a late March setup. Inferno to the SW. still 6 days to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 A low into OH will not give us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, chris21 said: I thought the GFS looked somewhat different than the Canadian for the first storm. Am I missing something here? It does differ but still offers no snow, looks like freezing rain. It does have another possible weird looking snow event later in the month but the surface looks really strange. The euro does offer some front end snow but with the surface track and development its got, I'm not sure I buy but hope it's right. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Do we do the lowered expectations thing and say “at least it’s not the CMC” or do we compare it to the last several runs? You were the one that said just yesterday or the day before that your biggest concern was suppression with this one. Are you changing your tune on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 incoming on the 28th per the Euro.....standby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, ryanconway63 said: incoming on the 28th per the Euro.....standby wrong thread 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Time to play "the models under-do CAD" card? Next run will show rain in Chicago Cant really play the under CAD card with this one. Because the cold isnt dumping in east of the mountains like it would usually do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Storm after the storm? That’s always been “the one” imo but that doesn’t mean I didn’t want a double feature lol. Still time. We need less ridging in front. Just wish we had true cold and didn’t need so much to go perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: incoming on the 28th per the Euro.....standby Looks very similar to PD I. Small fast moving ULL with a strong high over NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, LP08 said: The ULL in Canada just showed up on the 12z run. 0z on top, 12z bottom lol how does that happen?> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 25 minutes ago, osfan24 said: If you liked the mid-December storm, you will love this one. sweet. sign me up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I’m out 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 14 minutes ago, MD Snow said: You were the one that said just yesterday or the day before that your biggest concern was suppression with this one. Are you changing your tune on this? Based on the pattern it argues suppression. But I’m starting to wonder if the pathetic thermals just can’t resist any southerly flow which is unavoidable ahead of a wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, H2O said: I’m out Join us at the resort 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 As much as we rag on the GFS, the Euro is no longer a model you can feel great about. You used to always want it on your side and felt like every model would eventually cave to it. That's no longer the case. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 23 minutes ago, usedtobe said: It does differ but still offers no snow, looks like freezing rain. It does have another possible weird looking snow event later in the month but the surface looks really strange. The euro does offer some front end snow but with the surface track and development its got, I'm not sure I buy but hope it's right. I was worried about potential late month cold killing off the newly ubiquitous speckled trout stocks in the lower bay estuaries. Not that worried at this point, next month maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, chris21 said: I was worried about potential late month cold killing off the newly ubiquitous speckled trout stocks in the lower bay estuaries. Not that worried at this point, next month maybe... Those things will die if you get a cool north breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 As much as we rag on the GFS, the Euro is no longer a model you can feel great about. You used to always want it on your side and felt like every model would eventually cave to it. That's no longer the case.This has interested me for awhile. I assume it can’t be getting worse, so does that mean, as much as we rag on it for iffy updates, the GFS is getting better? to clarify, I know it’s getting better. But EURO has seemed notably less amazing this year while the GFS/CMC hasn’t got much credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Missed everything lol. Nobody posted Eps . Definitely south of the op . Nice. A tick of good news. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Missed everything lol. Nobody posted Eps . Definitely south of the op . Looks to keep most all frozen until basically precip shutoff For you, probably. DCA/Balt definitely lose 850s verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I'm talking surface. But DC per Eps starts as snow 1st ^and mixes after a period of snow but the cad is very slow to erode Fair enough. It’s definitely chiller than the OP. But don’t think it was an improvement over 06z, which was actually a better mean than 00z handwringing over the Control aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Eps definitely an improvement from 6z . Primary a bit weaker and ne confluence is a bit better Hah, we clearly disagree. I’m gonna defer to you though. I’m sure you’re better at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Hah, we clearly disagree. I’m gonna defer to you though. I’m sure you’re better at this. You’re both right..he has a lot more wiggle room than we do. That fades for him if this pushes south obviously. I’d take a mix of anything wintry at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Think about this. We have a storm, not suppressed and partly cloudy. That’s the first hurdle. We haven’t had one since Jan 1. And don’t tell me a cold front is a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Comparison 12z and 6z Eps 12z. ..u can easily spot the differences with primary and the confluence 6z LOL you can? From a pressure map? Maybe you could point them out to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL you can? From a pressure map? Maybe you could point them out to me. I guess the H is a little closer to Lake Superior? By about a 1/10th of a mile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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