WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 850mb low is like 300-400mi north of the 0z position at 132hrs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Consistency! That’s what we have been lacking, but we now have it. At some point, the GFS will catch on...probably around Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: heavy snow at 126 2 minutes ago, Ji said: heavy snow at 126 but playing with fire lol 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Thumping snow at 126. 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Regardless... still gonna be a fair bit of snow this run. DCA pummeled at 126 quadruple ninja'd 1 minute ago, wawarriors4 said: DCA Snow at 126, not so much down this way around EZF What is the precip type in DC at 126? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 850s are absolutely toasted though. Probably 32 and really rather than mix. Sad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 these are temps at 132 with a very north run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We'll probably flip, but we are nowhere near out of the game on this one. Yup. This has potential to be a great front end thump to mix back to snow once the LPC is east of us. Plenty of cold just to our north. These specifics won't be picked up 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 If you liked the mid-December storm, you will love this one. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 based on what i see now...no forecast will be safe until about 12 hours before the storm starts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Well, we went from a foot to 4". I mean, better than 0" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 It is odd the way the Euro is getting cold air into the area. With no Big HP over the top the angle of the cold air is from the NW instead of out of the due north. I would think that would limit the CAD somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: If you liked the mid-December storm, you will love this one. i liked it but i think mostly because it was pre Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What is the precip type in DC at 126? What is it like in Philadelphia? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 This is still an evolving situation. It will trend back south/flatter/quicker transfer. If not, what PSU said, and I will just accept that it cant snow on the coastal plain anymore lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 ULL north of MN causes probelms, but it does not phase. The coastal goes east off NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Well, we went from a foot to 4". I mean, better than 0" the more north the low..the less heavy precip we get too. We wont that low to be in KY. That would give us 2 solid panels of snow instead of 1 and a light mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 5” thump to mix to dryslot? I’d hit that. Interesting that this starts late Monday morning on the euro now. Speeding up. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, Amped said: ULL north of MN causes probelms, but it does not phase. The coastal goes east off NJ is this a new feature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That's a strong ass primary trying to drive into that block. Banana high over top of it at the surface . This run was a lot different in SE Canada vs 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, Ji said: is this a new feature? Yes, doesn't look like it was on any prior Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: 5” thump to mix to dryslot? I’d hit that. Interesting that this starts late Monday morning on the euro now. Speeding up. Yeah, that's the main difference I see on this run - the southern shortwave speeds up and is a bit more neutral than positive tilted, which leads to a strong sfc reflection. The NS didn't change that much, but this progression gives cold a little less time to press in from the N. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 850s are absolutely toasted though. Probably 32 and really rather than mix. Sad. There is no way it stays snow over here for long with the primary taking that track, despite what some of the silly ass surface/snow maps are depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Do we do the lowered expectations thing and say “at least it’s not the CMC” or do we compare it to the last several runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Do we do the lowered expectations thing and say “at least it’s not the CMC” or do we compare it to the last several runs? Storm after the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: There is no way it stays snow over here for long with the primary taking that track, despite what some of the silly ass surface/snow maps are depicting. Yeah. Heavy snow from a low in Indiana is not something I would rely on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Do we do the lowered expectations thing and say “at least it’s not the CMC” or do we compare it to the last several runs? Nah we compared it to the last several runs. I don't want anymore sloppy storms. I want a clean snowstorm. Been forever. I don't feel like going through and getting some sloppy 3-4 inches and then seeing it mix and turn to rain/melt and be a sloppy mess. That's basically all I've seen since 2016. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: There is no way it stays snow over here for long with the primary taking that track, despite what some of the silly ass surface/snow maps are depicting. verbatim we hold the 850s well south during the thump period but those SW winds are uh, cranking in some 850 juice shortly thereafter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Do we do the lowered expectations thing and say “at least it’s not the CMC” or do we compare it to the last several runs? Lower expectations because that run was just a stop on the way to shutout town. If everything settles a bit south then we get something. You get more something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is still an evolving situation. It will trend back south/flatter/quicker transfer. If not, what PSU said, and I will just accept that it cant snow on the coastal plain anymore lol. The setup argues south, the lack of cold has me doubting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 The ULL in Canada just showed up on the 12z run. 0z on top, 12z bottom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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